97,Update=00:00z Model plots,grafic

[Wnghs2007]

anyone who is worried if the BAMM is over them needs to have their heads examined or be institutionilized, probably the latter


That assumes a medium depth system. No need to worry then as we'd be looking at a 45KT TS at worst if the BAMM is correct.

Now, the Canadian is cause for concern

Also The Euro which brings a strong system into the Gulf of Mexico...atleast on its 00z run, have not looked at 12z run.

[dixiebreeze]

The tropics are getting real dicey today. Time to test the battery and 12 volt gadgets.

[Hurricaneman]

That situation would not be good for the FL panhandle

[ericinmia]

This sort of reminds me of ivan... lol

The models swayed over florida a few times, and everyone went crazy.

Although the models have been hinting this in pattern for 4 days now, it appears this storm will still head south of florida, or skim the coastline. Either way i don't aticipate it being more than a cat1 at most... thus se fl would only see winds of around 40-50mph in max. This is nothing more than a tropical rainmaker. The average thunderstorm here at my house nets 15-20mph winds. The average tropical thunderstorm averages 30-50mph winds. This should not be a problem for florida as long as it does not stall. We can't take much more rain.
-Eric

[kevin]

Evidently you didn't go through Frances and Jeane. I can tell you personally that 30 mph winds with 50 mph gusts and steady for days is a big deal. A huge deal. You will be without power. Trees will fall. Homes will be wrecked consequentially.

I have lived in Florida for around 10 years and have never had a thunderstorm like those hurricanes. And I was lucky. In Marion county far from the major impact.

[Eyes2theSkies]

Amen to that kevin

[Tommedic]

Any TS or Cat 1 storm can be devestating if preseeded by days of rain, whether light or heavy as it makes soils looser and can cause more trees to topple.

[Derecho]

Also The Euro which brings a strong system into the Gulf of Mexico...atleast on its 00z run, have not looked at 12z run.

12Z EC is into South Florida EXCEEDINGLY slowly (and surprisingly strong as depicted on the EC; people should generally ignore depicted strengths on global models as they're not designed for intensity, and even models designed to depict actual TC pressures (GFDL, SHIPS) are not very good at all, but it's interesting the depth of the system shown.)

[dixiebreeze]

Evidently you didn't go through Frances and Jeane. I can tell you personally that 30 mph winds with 50 mph gusts and steady for days is a big deal. A huge deal. You will be without power. Trees will fall. Homes will be wrecked consequentially.

I have lived in Florida for around 10 years and have never had a thunderstorm like those hurricanes. And I was lucky. In Marion county far from the major impact.

Amen, Kevin.

[Wnghs2007]

Also The Euro which brings a strong system into the Gulf of Mexico...atleast on its 00z run, have not looked at 12z run.

12Z EC is into South Florida EXCEEDINGLY slowly (and surprisingly strong as depicted on the EC; people should generally ignore depicted strengths on global models as they're not designed for intensity, and even models designed to depict actual TC pressures (GFDL, SHIPS) are not very good at all, but it's interesting the depth of the system shown.)

Thanks Derecho!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050705 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050705 0000 050705 1200 050706 0000 050706 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 61.9W 13.3N 64.7W 14.7N 66.9W 16.2N 69.1W
BAMM 12.2N 61.9W 13.5N 64.9W 14.9N 67.4W 16.6N 69.7W
A98E 12.2N 61.9W 12.9N 64.4W 13.8N 66.8W 15.2N 69.1W
LBAR 12.2N 61.9W 13.1N 64.8W 14.1N 67.5W 15.0N 70.2W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050707 0000 050708 0000 050709 0000 050710 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 71.2W 20.9N 75.2W 23.6N 79.4W 27.0N 83.1W
BAMM 18.3N 71.9W 21.5N 76.5W 24.3N 80.9W 27.7N 84.5W
A98E 17.0N 71.1W 20.0N 75.6W 23.4N 79.7W 27.5N 82.4W
LBAR 16.2N 72.8W 19.1N 77.5W 23.2N 81.6W 25.7N 84.7W
SHIP 61KTS 71KTS 79KTS 81KTS
DSHP 48KTS 55KTS 63KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 61.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 59.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 56.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM






The grafic will have this 00:00z run very soon updated.Refresh to see the 00:00z run.Look what GFDL does and that one is the red line updated already.

[skysummit]

That LBAR model gives me the idea that NOLA may trying it's first contraflow of the season.

[cycloneye]

Ok grafic of 00:00 run of the models is now updated.A little shift to the left compared to the earlier run.Look how concentrated they are in the Florida straits.

[Brent]

Remember Ivan? It started looking like it would slam into Hispanola and it moved west on each advisory after that... feels like Dejavu all over again.

[cycloneye]

Remember Ivan? It started looking like it would slam into Hispanola and it moved west on each advisory after that... feels like Dejavu all over again.

Yes with every run they change.Ivan models caused me commontion as one of them had it over Puerto Rico.

[Ivanhater]

can you post the new graphic of the models cycloneye?

[Opal storm]

Remember Ivan? It started looking like it would slam into Hispanola and it moved west on each advisory after that... feels like Dejavu all over again.

Even though it's still early in the game,I'm keeping a serious eye on this thing.Looks as if FL and the Northern Gulf Coast will be dealing with yet another tropical system soon,and I think this one will be a little more serious than our previous storms.We'll see...

[ericinmia]

Evidently you didn't go through Frances and Jeane. I can tell you personally that 30 mph winds with 50 mph gusts and steady for days is a big deal. A huge deal. You will be without power. Trees will fall. Homes will be wrecked consequentially.

I have lived in Florida for around 10 years and have never had a thunderstorm like those hurricanes. And I was lucky. In Marion county far from the major impact.

Thanks.

Sorry however i have lived in south florida for over two decades. I am a FOURTH generation miamian, and my great grandfather wrote the first "Hurricane Building Code" in the world. So i think that you are barking up the wrong tree. If you would so like i am sure i can send you my weather data of my sustained 30-50mph winds for three days durring those hurricanes you mention.

Central folorida is NOTHING like south florida. You all do not get the same thunderstorms off the carribean/atlantic, and everglades. You all don't have building codes like we have. And thus your area is not weathered to deal with these scenarios as much as south florida is. Our trees routinely loose branches, and become stronger from years of battering. The weak things fall.

I was up in your area durring Jeanne, and it was not as bad as it was brought out to be. The high hurricane force winds were not present for great periods of time, the majority of the storm time was TS force. Houses if built properly should not be wrecked by those. But poor design, poor codes, poor inspections lead to poor performance. Example: "Gable Style roofing... lol what a joke" It was NO Andrew which i also went through. Consequently an airport near my house registred gusts over 200mph.

Anyway i don't have time to argue like this... I'm done with this thread.
-Eric

[cycloneye]

can you post the new graphic of the models cycloneye?

Grafic is in above post in this page.

[Stratosphere747]

Ivan deveolped much farther east than this...Not sure why Ivan should be even used as an example...