Personal Forecast/Discussion on 03L and Brief on 04L

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
DoctorHurricane2003

Personal Forecast/Discussion on 03L and Brief on 04L

#1 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:20 pm

S2K disclaimer: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Personal Disclaimer: For all official information, please view the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ . For local statements and evacuation information, please go to http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ and click on the appropriate location for your hometown.

Graphics Disclaimer: The graphic here is for visualization purposes only and is NOT endorsed by S2K, NWS, NHC, or NOAA.

SUN 04.07.2005 0924 PM CDT

03L.NONAME Discussion

03L briefly became disorganized earlier today, but recent satellite photographs have showed that it may be getting better organized. Current movement is towards the NNW, which should put it on the coast sometime in the 36 HR range. It appears that the center is trying to get vertically stacked, but is not having much luck. We need more information from the recon to be able to tell for sure. I am concerned that it could really start to get its act together overnight tonight during the diurnal maximum, but we will have to see. My forecast on the graphic is conservative and at a steady intensification pace, however, if 03L gets better organized overnight tonight, there is a pocket of warmer waters that it may be traversing, and it could be stronger than forecasted here. All persons along the Northern Gulf Coast should continue to monitor this system.

Image



04L.NONAME Brief

I will be brief until I gather more information and 03L is less of a threat, in which then I will be creating forecast graphics for 04L. 04L has consistently been getting better organized throughout the day to warrant the classification at 11 PM. Right now, I expect 04L to maintain a quick pace to the WNW, and possibly slow down as it approaches the Hispanola region. It may pass over Eastern Cuba as it traverses in a WNW/NW direction towards SE FL. Right now, conditions are favorable for a steady development of the system and I would not be surprised to see it become a hurricane in 72 HR. More information and in-depth discussions will be given in later discussions throughout the week.

*END
0 likes   

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

#2 Postby dhweather » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:25 pm

I just dont think TD3 will get above 50KT winds, but I do agree with your
path for the storm.
0 likes   

DoctorHurricane2003

#3 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:34 pm

My forecast hinges on what happens during the diurnal maximums tonight and tomorrow night.
0 likes   

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

#4 Postby dhweather » Mon Jul 04, 2005 9:35 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:My forecast hinges on what happens during the diurnal maximums tonight and tomorrow night.


Understandable - can't argue with that at all.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy, KirbyDude25 and 494 guests