TD4 5am advisory...

[ericinmia]

Avila.... enough said.

This could have been dennis already...

Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 2


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 05, 2005


...Tropical depression becoming better organized...nearing tropical
storm strength...

a tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the southern
coast of Hispaniola later today. Interests in the central and
western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 12.6 north...longitude 64.4 west or about
415 miles... 670 km...south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.

The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph ...28
km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the next
24hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...12.6 N... 64.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

[ericinmia]

Discussion:

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 2


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 05, 2005



satellite presentation has continued to improve during the past
several hours. There is very deep convection near or over the
center and the outflow has continued to expand in all quadrants.
There is no shear ahead of the cyclone so a gradual strengthening
is indicated...and the depression could become a hurricane in the
western Caribbean Sea. This is consistent with SHIPS and the GFDL
models.
The depression appears to be moving toward the west of 280 degrees
at 15 knots around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. The
cyclone should continue on this general track with a gradual
decrease in forward speed beyond 3 days..as it reaches the western
end of the ridge. A turn more to the northwest should then begin.
This track would bring the system over Cuba and the eastern Gulf of
Mexico later in the period. This is consistent with most of the
dynamical guidance which in fact...is in very good agreement.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/0900z 12.6n 64.4w 30 kt
12hr VT 05/1800z 13.2n 66.4w 40 kt
24hr VT 06/0600z 14.5n 69.5w 50 kt
36hr VT 06/1800z 16.5n 72.5w 60 kt
48hr VT 07/0600z 18.0n 75.0w 60 kt
72hr VT 08/0600z 20.5n 79.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 09/0600z 23.0n 82.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 10/0600z 25.0n 84.0w 70 kt


$$