td 4/Dennis forecast #1: Slowly through the Caribbean

[Josephine96]

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #4
NJN WEATHER CENTER
620 AM TUES JULY 5TH 2005

Tropical Depression #4 was born last night and may become Tropical Storm Dennis before lunchtime today. Our wanna be Dennis currently has winds of 35 mph.

The depression is quickly becoming better organized, however with it's fast movement it better be careful. Some tropical systems can actually have the storms outrun the LLC and then leave the LLC exposed. So Dennis wanna be may have to slow down a little if he's gonna gain some strength.

TD 4 is a very favorable water. It has nothing but middle to upper 80's water ahead of it. If #4 can survive it's interactions with Hispanola and other Caribbean Islands, it shall survive and continue to strengthen.

Down the road is when it gets interesting. Many models take Dennis to South Florida, possibly as a hurricane. Depending on how strong the storms' winds are, and depending on how quickly it builds, it will be an interesting weekend. Those in Central Florida should watch this as well, because depending on the strength of the Bermuda High and other potential factors, Dennis could be yanked just a little further north.

While it's way too early to call a landfall, I will go ahead and make a 1st prediction of a landfall between Miami Beach and West Palm. Making this a South Florida landfall, then cutting across the state before exiting into the GOM.

Here's a look at my experimental 5 day forecast on TD 4
Today: Becoming Dennis, still moving quick. Max Winds: 45 mph
Wednesday: Better organized, watch it Caribbean. Max Winds: 55 mph
Thursday: Just to the east of Jamaica, possibly even passing right over it. Max Winds: 65 mph
Friday:Approaching Florida, as a Cat 1 hurricane. Max Winds: 75 mph
Saturday: Crossing and going into the GOM. Max Winds: 65 mph

[WeatherEmperor]

Nicely done. Just couuuuuldnt resist putting Florida in the equation huh? Must have been an itch way too deep not to scratch? lol j/k

<RICKY>

[feederband]

Sure looks like the real deal down there.....