TD 4 NHC track right near Punta Gorda again....

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dixiebreeze
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TD 4 NHC track right near Punta Gorda again....

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:06 am

I know it's early, but this is a very frightening track for SW Floridians after Hurricane Charlie last year:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#2 Postby LSU2001 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:14 am

That looks like a real long haul over cuba. Seems to me would not be much left ater that trek across cuba.
TIm

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#3 Postby boca » Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:17 am

I think more of a western tip of Cuba then NNW towards Mobile for TD4.
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#4 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:21 am

I pray the is not another charley like system for them
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#5 Postby Huckster » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:40 am

Latest GFS takes it near Lake Charles/Beaumont, as best as I could tell. There will be a lot of laughs at the GFS's expense as it flip flops constantly.
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#6 Postby southerngale » Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:52 am

Huckster wrote:Latest GFS takes it near Lake Charles/Beaumont, as best as I could tell. There will be a lot of laughs at the GFS's expense as it flip flops constantly.

:eek: :eek: :eek:



hehe, j/k
I don't think it's coming to the western GOM!
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#7 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:00 am

southerngale wrote:
Huckster wrote:Latest GFS takes it near Lake Charles/Beaumont, as best as I could tell. There will be a lot of laughs at the GFS's expense as it flip flops constantly.

:eek: :eek: :eek:



hehe, j/k
I don't think it's coming to the western GOM!


Hey... you said you needed some rain...
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#8 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:25 am

I gotta say it..

It's gonna hit Florida lol..

Personally I think somewhere in South Florida, then crossing the state and exiting into the GOM.
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#9 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:26 am

joe smith said that for now it dose not look good for florida and most models he shown take it to florida??????????????????????

i want my mother hehe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

p.s. not again dennis a menics again for florida!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#10 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:38 am

I think that the models are going to continue to shift left at least over the next few runs or so because they have it moving too much NW initially. This thing is at a pretty low latitude and it is going to have to slow down or turn fairly quickly to follow that track that it is forecasted right now.
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rainstorm

#11 Postby rainstorm » Tue Jul 05, 2005 5:44 am

i agree. i think it misses florida.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr
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#12 Postby Javlin » Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:31 am

Yea WX if you look at the sat pics then the NRL supposed track it's already way S.I am with you rainstorm clips W Cuba.Where is the high after that your guess is as good as mine.The system is to symetrical so it continues on a 290' path for a while.Once the clouds out front start to stretch look at the stretch thats where it goes next.
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#13 Postby Rainband » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:13 am

rainstorm wrote:i agree. i think it misses florida.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr
I'd feel better if that was a different model.
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#14 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:46 am

lsu2001 wrote:That looks like a real long haul over cuba. Seems to me would not be much left ater that trek across cuba.
TIm


That part of Cuba is skinny and it's not very mountainous there. If it follows that track, I wouldn't expect it to weaken more than 5 to 10 mph. It's fast motion would take it across the island in a few hours.
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#15 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:55 am

If the system holds off and stays further south than the current paths, it will likely cross the western tip of Cuba... very flat and little impedance. Then aka Charley, it will enter into the soupy warm eddy of the GOM and bust open. This will indeed be a very powerful early season hurricane and not a pretty sight no matter who gets it.
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#16 Postby storm4u » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:18 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:If the system holds off and stays further south than the current paths, it will likely cross the western tip of Cuba... very flat and little impedance. Then aka Charley, it will enter into the soupy warm eddy of the GOM and bust open. This will indeed be a very powerful early season hurricane and not a pretty sight no matter who gets it.



well said!!
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#17 Postby fci » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:23 am

wx247 wrote:I think that the models are going to continue to shift left at least over the next few runs or so because they have it moving too much NW initially. This thing is at a pretty low latitude and it is going to have to slow down or turn fairly quickly to follow that track that it is forecasted right now.


Totally agree.
They seem to like to turn these SE Carib storms way too early, then they get so far west , it can't happen.
They originally had this going WNW then NW but now they say W for the next 24 hours.
That is one heck of a right turn to get So. FL!!
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#18 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:38 am

fci wrote:
wx247 wrote:I think that the models are going to continue to shift left at least over the next few runs or so because they have it moving too much NW initially. This thing is at a pretty low latitude and it is going to have to slow down or turn fairly quickly to follow that track that it is forecasted right now.


Totally agree.
They seem to like to turn these SE Carib storms way too early, then they get so far west , it can't happen.
They originally had this going WNW then NW but now they say W for the next 24 hours.
That is one heck of a right turn to get So. FL!!


True, but Charley sure made a hard right into Punta Gorda. :eek:
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