Tropical Depression #4 Advisorys thread

Swimdude · #41 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:46 pm

Brent wrote:
skysummit wrote:Going at this rate, it may be late September and tied 17 all.

I'm already suffering from sleep deprivation.

Hahaha I think we all are. Wow this season is so fascinating, and it's only the Fourth of July! [HAPPY 4th EVERYONE!] I'm amazed...

Greg · #42 Postby **Greg** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:52 pm

noaa official track...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032548.shtml?5day

Foladar · #43 Postby **Foladar** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 11:51 pm

Stay west! I have a baseball game on Friday :cry:

#44 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 11:54 pm

QUESTION:

If both systems are declared tropical storms at 5 am, which will become Cindy and Dennis respectively?

Hyperstorm · #45 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 11:58 pm

HURAKAN, It will all then come down to the number of the depression. TD #3 Cindy, TD #4 Dennis.

I think it will be pretty close for both of them, although TD #4 might be leading...

#46 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 04, 2005 11:59 pm

Thanks for the replies, let see what the RECON finds but surely TD 4 is going ahead, at least it looks a lot better!

Swimdude · #47 Postby **Swimdude** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:03 am

HURAKAN wrote:Thanks for the replies, let see what the RECON finds but surely TD 4 is going ahead, at least it looks a lot better!

Hehehe it's like watching a car race!

#48 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:50 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042005) ON 20050705 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050705 1200 050706 0000 050706 1200 050707 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 65.8W 13.9N 68.3W 15.0N 70.7W 16.2N 72.9W
BAMM 13.0N 65.8W 14.2N 68.4W 15.5N 70.7W 17.0N 72.7W
A98E 13.0N 65.8W 13.9N 69.1W 14.7N 71.9W 15.6N 74.3W
LBAR 13.0N 65.8W 13.9N 68.8W 15.0N 71.8W 16.2N 74.8W
SHIP 30KTS 40KTS 51KTS 62KTS
DSHP 30KTS 40KTS 51KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050707 1200 050708 1200 050709 1200 050710 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 74.9W 19.0N 78.3W 20.7N 81.0W 22.4N 83.4W
BAMM 18.4N 74.7W 21.0N 78.3W 23.7N 81.5W 26.3N 85.0W
A98E 16.5N 76.2W 18.1N 79.6W 20.2N 82.0W 23.6N 84.4W
LBAR 17.5N 77.5W 20.1N 82.1W 22.8N 84.8W 24.7N 86.2W
SHIP 72KTS 87KTS 96KTS 97KTS
DSHP 72KTS 87KTS 77KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 65.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 62.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 59.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D

Still the models haved not upgraded it to TS Dennis.

Grafic has to be refreshed to then have the 12:00 run.

#49 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:33 am

We need the RECON the investigate this system because it surely looks sufficiently organized to be classified as a TS.

Website · #50 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:35 am

HURAKAN wrote:We need the RECON the investigate this system because it surely looks sufficiently organized to be classified as a TS.

Looks better than Cindy IMO.

#51 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:37 am

By the way, shouln't the ABC islands be under tropical storm watch, or warning? Future "Dennis" is going to pass very close.

#52 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 8:39 am

HURAKAN wrote:By the way, shouln't the ABC islands be under tropical storm watch, or warning? Future "Dennis" is going to pass very close.

Agree 100%.

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:26 am

Advisory comming very soon so stay tuned.

#54 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:30 am

cycloneye wrote:Advisory comming very soon so stay tuned.

I'm eagerly awaiting for BOTH advisories!!

Website · #55 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:39 am

DENNIS IS HERE!!!

Tropical Storm Dennis Forecast/Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 15:00Z on July 05, 2005

at 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of the Dominican Republic has
issued a tropical storm watch for the South Coast of the Dominican
Republic from Barahona westward and the government of Haiti has
issued a tropical storm watch for the southwest peninsula of Haiti
from the Dominican Republic border and Port-au-Prince westward.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.

Tropical storm center located near 13.3n 66.6w at 05/1500z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 16 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1006 mb
Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt....... 50ne 40se 0sw 50nw.
12 ft seas.. 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 13.3n 66.6w at 05/1500z
at 05/1200z center was located near 13.0n 65.8w

forecast valid 06/0000z 14.4n 68.7w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 40se 0sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 06/1200z 15.9n 71.5w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 75ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 07/0000z 17.4n 74.1w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 75ne 50se 25sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 18.9n 76.6w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 60se 30sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 21.5n 81.0w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 09/1200z 23.5n 83.5w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Outlook valid 10/1200z 26.0n 86.0w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.3n 66.6w

next advisory at 05/2100z

forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression #4 Advisorys thread

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