Charley vs soon-to-be Dennis comparisons

[TPACane04]

Since TD4 is looking like a real player for someone in the Gulf, I went back and read the NHC archives on Charley during roughly the same lat/long and strentgth as TD4 right now.

Interestingly, Charley became a named storm very close to the current location of TD4, so we may have a bit of a history lesson in order, from a synoptic standpoint.

More tidbits on models...this is the first NHC discussion when Charley was actually named. Note the wide range of model opinions:

<i>CHARLEY CONTINUES TO SPEED ALONG AT 285/21...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE INCREASED DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION. MOST TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS CHARLEY REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET NOW TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE GFS TAKES CHARLEY INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A LITTLE FASTER GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION.</i>

My recollection of the models as Charley neared Jamaica was that the GFDL did very well with strength and location <b>at about 3 days out</b>...GFDL had Charley running over Tampa from 3 days out, as a Cat 3. so I would be interested to see what GFDL says on Weds/Thurs.

POINT: these models will flip around a bunch until the storm deepens, so do not freak out or make rash assumptions after each model run.

[Rainband]

Since TD4 is looking like a real player for someone in the Gulf, I went back and read the NHC archives on Charley during roughly the same lat/long and strentgth as TD4 right now.

Interestingly, Charley became a named storm very close to the current location of TD4, so we may have a bit of a history lesson in order, from a synoptic standpoint.

More tidbits on models...this is the first NHC discussion when Charley was actually named. Note the wide range of model opinions:

<i>CHARLEY CONTINUES TO SPEED ALONG AT 285/21...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE INCREASED DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION. MOST TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS CHARLEY REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET NOW TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE GFS TAKES CHARLEY INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A LITTLE FASTER GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION.</i>

My recollection of the models as Charley neared Jamaica was that the GFDL did very well with strength and location <b>at about 3 days out</b>...GFDL had Charley running over Tampa from 3 days out, as a Cat 3. so I would be interested to see what GFDL says on Weds/Thurs.

POINT: these models will flip around a bunch until the storm deepens, so do not freak out or make rash assumptions after each model run.

Bravo

[TPACane04]

thank you rainband, just trying to keep a little normalcy in the palace!

[x-y-no]

Yes, the guidance was well to the left of the eventual track at that time, because the global models didn't see the strength of the trough which came down and recurved him.

Interesting reminder that Charley was quite a fast-moving system in that area, though. Thanks.

Jan

EDIT: And interestingly, the much-maligned GFS was closer to the right solution in the 4-5 day timeframe, although even it was too weak with the trough.

[fci]

Rainband:
You nailed it.
Similarities are huge.

[Rainband]

Rainband:
You nailed it.
Similarities are huge.

huh???

[fci]

Similarities to Charley that the potential Dennis is showing.
(I guess my original did not make sense

[LAwxrgal]

"Dennis" looks to have a larger circulation envelope than Charley, doesn't it?

[Rainband]

Similarities to Charley that the potential Dennis is showing.
(I guess my original did not make sense

yeah it's jsut early

[gtalum]

I think the confusion is because you gave Rainband the props, but it was TPACane04 that made the comparison.

[Rainband]

I think the confusion is because you gave Rainband the props, but it was TPACane04 that made the comparison.

[TPACane04]

hey, I need all the props I can get (ha)

someone asked about the TD4 circulation envelope, and yes this system does appear to be large in scope than Charley was at same stage.

what does that mean in the grand scheme of things?? dunno...other than the obvious, which is more chance for land areas to be impacted with a large size storm.

My favorite "storm size" was Floyd as he was approaching Florida a few years back..his sat presentation engulfed FL land mass, and people were freaking out that Floyd was going to chew up FL and spit it out. (go find archives of Floyd as he was east of Bahamas and you will see what I mean.)

Alas, a lucky trough showed up to deflect it to the poor folks in Carolina.

[Rainband]

Yeah Floyd was ominous to say the least!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just remember though it was an unusually strong cold front that swept done to the gulf that turned charley. We had autumn like temps for those few nights. Just don't see that happening any time soon this year. IMO

[dhweather]

It's beginning to sound like Dennis will indeed be a menace.

[Rainband]

Looking better for Florida with each run. Come on ridge stay strong.

[fci]

I think the confusion is because you gave Rainband the props, but it was TPACane04 that made the comparison.

You are absolutely correct.
My bad.

[PurdueWx80]

There is one huge difference in the synoptic situation between Charley and Dennis that can NOT be ignored. If you'll remember back to the days of Charley, there was an unseasonably strong trough in the central and eastern United States that turned Charley to the NNW near Cuba, then N and finally NNE as it came ashore. This go'round, there will be no such trough, but instead a ridge axis over the southeast (with whatever weakness that Cindy may leave behind), which argues for no NE movement whatsoever once it gets closer to the CONUS. In fact, the only troughs across the CONUS will be along the West Coast (or just off it) and along or just east of the Northeast coast, with a very large/broad ridge across most of the country. That argues for slower movement in the Gulf, at least the way it looks now. To me, it looks as if this storm will move WNW for several days followed by a gradual turn towards the NW - this would probably continue all the way to the US.