Tropical Storm Dennis

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:39 am

WTNT24 KNHC 051435
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
1500Z TUE JUL 05 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD AND THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 66.6W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 66.6W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.4N 68.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.9N 71.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.4N 74.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.9N 76.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 66.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH

#2 Postby **loon** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:39 am

wooo hoooo ,now we're talking...

#3 Postby **TampaFl** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:41 am

Well it was just a matter of time. Thanks cycloneye of the quick updates

Robert

Website · #4 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:42 am

Tropical Storm Dennis Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 05, 2005

...Caribbean depression becomes Tropical Storm Dennis...

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of the Dominican Republic has
issued a tropical storm watch for the South Coast of the Dominican
Republic from Barahona westward and the government of Haiti has
issued a tropical storm watch for the southwest peninsula of Haiti
from the Dominican Republic border and Port-au-Prince westward.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

Satellite images indicate that Tropical Depression Four has
strengthened into a tropical storm. July 5 is the earliest date on
record for 4 named storms to have formed in the Atlantic Basin.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Dennis was
located near latitude 13.3 north... longitude 66.6 west or about
355 miles... 570 km... south of San Juan Puerto Rico.
Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph ...30
km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...13.3 N... 66.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

Website · #5 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:44 am

Tropical Storm Dennis Discussion Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 05, 2005

Banding features are becoming better defined and...based on a Dvorak
classification of t2.5 from TAFB...the cyclone is being named.
This is the earliest date ever to have four named tropical cyclones
in the Atlantic Basin. The storm will be in a low-shear and high
oceanic heat content environment for the next several days...so
further strengthening is likely. The official intensity forecast
may be conservative at the longer range...but there is little if
any skill in intensity change prediction at days 4-5.
Dennis is moving a little north of west near 16 kt as a result of a
deep easterly steering flow to the south of the subtropical high.
A general west-northwestward track with a little deceleration is
predicted. This is similar to the previous forecast and in good
agreement with the dynamical model consensus. Because of
uncertainty in longer-range track predictions...it is too early to
speculate on what portions of the U.S. Might be threatened.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of Hispaniola
at this time.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/1500z 13.3n 66.6w 35 kt
12hr VT 06/0000z 14.4n 68.7w 40 kt
24hr VT 06/1200z 15.9n 71.5w 50 kt
36hr VT 07/0000z 17.4n 74.1w 60 kt
48hr VT 07/1200z 18.9n 76.6w 65 kt
72hr VT 08/1200z 21.5n 81.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 09/1200z 23.5n 83.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 10/1200z 26.0n 86.0w 75 kt

#6 Postby **tracyswfla** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:44 am

Thank you gentleman.... of course the track looks more West..... the bandwagon shall soon commence.

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:44 am

I think the NHC is TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO conservative with intensification.

#8 Postby **seahawkjd** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:46 am

Tropical Storm Dennis Discussion Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 05, 2005

Banding features are becoming better defined and...based on a Dvorak
classification of t2.5 from TAFB...the cyclone is being named.
This is the earliest date ever to have four named tropical cyclones
in the Atlantic Basin. The storm will be in a low-shear and high
oceanic heat content environment for the next several days...so
further strengthening is likely. The official intensity forecast
may be conservative at the longer range...but there is little if
any skill in intensity change prediction at days 4-5.
Dennis is moving a little north of west near 16 kt as a result of a
deep easterly steering flow to the south of the subtropical high.
A general west-northwestward track with a little deceleration is
predicted. This is similar to the previous forecast and in good
agreement with the dynamical model consensus. Because of
uncertainty in longer-range track predictions...it is too early to
speculate on what portions of the U.S. Might be threatened.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of Hispaniola
at this time.[
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/1500z 13.3n 66.6w 35 kt
12hr VT 06/0000z 14.4n 68.7w 40 kt
24hr VT 06/1200z 15.9n 71.5w 50 kt
36hr VT 07/0000z 17.4n 74.1w 60 kt
48hr VT 07/1200z 18.9n 76.6w 65 kt
72hr VT 08/1200z 21.5n 81.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 09/1200z 23.5n 83.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 10/1200z 26.0n 86.0w 75 kt

$$

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:47 am

cajungal · #10 Postby **cajungal** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:48 am

We are in the cone again!

wxcrazytwo · #11 Postby **wxcrazytwo** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:48 am

I think they have it too far west.

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:49 am

cajungal wrote:We are in the cone again!

yep so is the whole GOM.

Ripopgodazippa · #13 Postby **Ripopgodazippa** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:50 am

Gotta love a line like this one...

This is the earliest date ever to have four named tropical cyclones
in the Atlantic Basin.

KatDaddy · #14 Postby **KatDaddy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:51 am

Dennis will become a dangerous storm in the upcoming days. We desperately need rain along the Upper TX Coast however we can do without Dennis. Someone along the GOM is going to take a serious hit.
Dennis has the writing of Allen and Gilbert all over it. Low latitude large circulating system still headed more W than N. The models will indeed shift much more W over the next few days. If this allow Dennis to miss the trough and meander in the GOM it will have everyone tense along the GOM.

#15 Postby **tracyswfla** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:53 am

Ripopgodazippa wrote:Gotta love a line like this one...

This is the earliest date ever to have four named tropical cyclones
in the Atlantic Basin.

I know and we were all bored last week....better be careful of what we wish for! 8-)

x-y-no · #16 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:57 am

tracyswfla wrote:
Ripopgodazippa wrote:Gotta love a line like this one...

This is the earliest date ever to have four named tropical cyclones
in the Atlantic Basin.

I know and we were all bored last week....better be careful of what we wish for!

Well, at least nobody can claim this season is a dud. :lol:

#17 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:58 am

Well, everyone has expected an active season - well, it's starting!

Of course, after Dennis, there may not be much activity for a while.

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:59 am

dhweather wrote:Well, everyone has expected an active season - well, it's starting!

Of course, after Dennis, there may not be much activity for a while.

Agree on less activity for a while after Dennis is gone.

Rainband · #19 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:00 am

#20 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:01 am

From CBS 4 Miami:

"The Government of Hispaniola has issued a tropical storm watch for Haiti and the Dominican Republic....."

Tropical Storm Dennis

Tropical Storm Dennis

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