Dennis wild card = Cindy vs Ridge

[TPACane04]

Forgive me for calling it Dennis already, just cutting to the chase as it should/will be named later today. (me thinks) <i>just an opinion, not an official 4-cast, of course.</i>

I believe the "wild card" for TD4 is what Cindy does (or does not do) to the eastern ridge. She is forecast to bend NE after landfall....which could mean that she takes a bite out of the blocking ridge around Florida and points east. I do not think Cindy is strong enough to pump the ridge stroner, as some storms of influence have done in times past.

If she does not influence the ridge to any extent, then Dennis moves more W or NW and is a potential Central Gulf issue.

If she does knock down heights some off East Coast, then could allow Dennis more of a NW component earlier, and put FL in play for action with Dennis.

Some of you with time on your hands today need to do a little research and find an analog for a trop storm creating a path for a Caribbean system...this will be a fun research project. I could not think of a similar setup in years past, off the top of my head.

[BonesXL]

Thanks, very interesting situation

[scogor]

Not quite the same but remember that Bonnie hit the panhandle shortly before Charley took the "right turn" into Charlotte County just last year.

[Patrick99]

I can think of similar setups...in August or September. hehe

[TPACane04]

I do not think the calendar month will matter, so much as the general atmosphere setup...have we had a TS hit upper Gulf coast, followed closely (less than a week) by a NW bound Caribbean system?

Cannot use Charley last year, that CONUS trough was home brewed and not a result of a previous tropical entity.

NHC 11am advisory takes the doom cone a bit more westward, 26/86 is west of Naples and further out in Gulf...extrapolate that path and it flirts with New Orleans!

[x-y-no]

I'm getting pretty concerned for the Florida panhandle area. I know it's early for that, but this track could bring something pretty strong into that general region, and they sure don't need that up there.

[dhweather]

I'm getting pretty concerned for the Florida panhandle area. I know it's early for that, but this track could bring something pretty strong into that general region, and they sure don't need that up there.

I was telling my wife that this morning - they've still got so much recovery
to do from Ivan, the last thing they need is a strong Dennis.

[drudd1]

I do not think the calendar month will matter, so much as the general atmosphere setup...have we had a TS hit upper Gulf coast, followed closely (less than a week) by a NW bound Caribbean system?

Cannot use Charley last year, that CONUS trough was home brewed and not a result of a previous tropical entity.

NHC 11am advisory takes the doom cone a bit more westward, 26/86 is west of Naples and further out in Gulf...extrapolate that path and it flirts with New Orleans!

I think you are going to see that cone shift back and forth over the next few days. Once they get a handle on the atmospheric set-up that will be in place late in the week, then things will be clearer. At this point, it's just too early to tell with any certainty what the path will be.

[dixiebreeze]

Not quite the same but remember that Bonnie hit the panhandle shortly before Charley took the "right turn" into Charlotte County just last year.

I don't think anyone will ever forget that hard right turn, Scogor.

[Steve]

You really can't be sure how a tropical system will affect a ridge. It really depends on positioning. Often they will pump or jack a ridge up to their SE if they're hooking NE and invite it to build it behind it. Sometimes they erode the periphery of an established ridge. There's no way to know what Cindy's going to do except that she'll cool the water temps a bit in the NC Gulf. Lookout between Tampa and Corpus Christi!

Steve

[Portastorm]

... and isn't it true that the larger and stronger the systems are, the more they tend to create their own steering environments?

Dennis looks like he may end dictating his own course.

[GulfBreezer]

I'm getting pretty concerned for the Florida panhandle area. I know it's early for that, but this track could bring something pretty strong into that general region, and they sure don't need that up there.

I was telling my wife that this morning - they've still got so much recovery
to do from Ivan, the last thing they need is a strong Dennis.

I am still not done rebuilding my home and still have dead, downed trees in my yard. There are still tons of debris piles here and many home who are still just destroyed with no work done on htem at all. We have a flying missile storage site here if we were to get those kinds of winds right now. ANother storm of magnitude this season would be pure devastation.

[chrisnnavarre]

I'm getting pretty concerned for the Florida panhandle area. I know it's early for that, but this track could bring something pretty strong into that general region, and they sure don't need that up there.

I was telling my wife that this morning - they've still got so much recovery
to do from Ivan, the last thing they need is a strong Dennis.

I am still not done rebuilding my home and still have dead, downed trees in my yard. There are still tons of debris piles here and many home who are still just destroyed with no work done on htem at all. We have a flying missile storage site here if we were to get those kinds of winds right now. ANother storm of magnitude this season would be pure devastation.

Starting to understand why the Spanish left Pensacola for St. Augustine...