Read carefully

[Rainband]

Tropical Storm Dennis Discussion Number 3

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 05, 2005

Banding features are becoming better defined and...based on a Dvorak
classification of t2.5 from TAFB...the cyclone is being named.
This is the earliest date ever to have four named tropical cyclones
in the Atlantic Basin. The storm will be in a low-shear and high
oceanic heat content environment for the next several days...so
further strengthening is likely. The official intensity forecast
may be conservative at the longer range...but there is little if
any skill in intensity change prediction at days 4-5.
Dennis is moving a little north of west near 16 kt as a result of a
deep easterly steering flow to the south of the subtropical high.
A general west-northwestward track with a little deceleration is
predicted. This is similar to the previous forecast and in good
agreement with the dynamical model consensus. Because of
uncertainty in longer-range track predictions...it is too early to
speculate on what portions of the U.S. Might be threatened.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of Hispaniola
at this time.

If you live anywhere in the GOM Be prepared. It is too early to know where dennis will go. Watch and wait. At this point the only thing that is certain is we have a few days to watch and wait.

[tracyswfla]

I read that and agree.... to early...

[dhweather]

Everyone from SE Florida through the GM needs to keep an eye on Dennis.

Models beyond 72 hours are subject to LARGE errors - so pay attention.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!

[dwg71]

I know its too early to tell, but its never too early to guess...

Dennis skirts south florida as cat 1 and makes landfall in PCB, Fl at cat 2.

[skysummit]

This definately well may be the first BIG ONE of the season. This is a storm that will cause a lot of havoc for 1000's. We all need to be very alert and try to inform those who tend to not have the interest in the tropics that we do.

[jlauderdal]

I know its too early to tell, but its never too early to guess...

Dennis skirts south florida as cat 1 and makes landfall in PCB, Fl at cat 2.

I think it will be at least 150 miles west of naples

[LaPlaceFF]

Dennis needs to GO FISH

[x-y-no]

Dennis needs to GO FISH

Not an option, unfortunately.

[Stratusxpeye]

Dennis wont be fishing at all this year. He's looking for dry land to go to sleep on. Unfortunently it's gonna be on eof us on the gulf coast. I think im spared here in tampa but panhandle and west look out. I predict a Ivan exct or close to track.

[Johnny]

Well Texas will be spared. Things will be getting very interesting for the people on eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico.

[Portastorm]

Well Texas will be spared. Things will be getting very interesting for the people on eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico.

Um ... what makes you think that? Nobody's out of the woods yet re: Dennis, at least nobody in the GOM. It's "game on" from Brownsville to the Keys.

[Weatherboy1]

A day or two ago, I was somewhat more concerned here in SE FL (specifically, Jupiter). But as with MANY of these fast-moving, low-latitude storms in the past few years, the INITIAL model runs appear to have forecast the gradual bending to the WNW too soon. They're slowly but surely shifting W, and I imagine that will probably continue. Someone is going to get pounded with this storm, but it's probably not going to be me (as always, it's too early to say for sure -- two more days should seal the deal -- but that's how I see things right now). The upper Gulf Coast, unfortunately, is another story. This could be one heck of a storm for that region about a week out.

-Mike

[Johnny]

Um ... what makes you think that? Nobody's out of the woods yet re: Dennis, at least nobody in the GOM. It's "game on" from Brownsville to the Keys.

JMO Portastorm...the models have been in agreement and are still in agreement even though they have shifted to the west a bit. My cone as of now is from New Iberia, Louisiana to Gulf Shores, Alabama. The reason why I say this is because I am going on vacation this coming up Monday to the Hill Country south of you. There is no way that I would have to cancel my vacation because of Dennis hitting the upper Texas coast. This is what I am basing my forecast off of.

[feederband]

In the Talking Tropics forum its never to early to .....Guess....

[Portastorm]

Um ... what makes you think that? Nobody's out of the woods yet re: Dennis, at least nobody in the GOM. It's "game on" from Brownsville to the Keys.

JMO Portastorm...the models have been in agreement and are still in agreement even though they have shifted to the west a bit. My cone as of now is from New Iberia, Louisiana to Gulf Shores, Alabama. The reason why I say this is because I am going on vacation this coming up Monday to the Hill Country south of you. There is no way that I would have to cancel my vacation because of Dennis hitting the upper Texas coast. This is what I am basing my forecast off of.

Ah, wishful thinking ...

I don't blame you. The Hill Country is nowhere to be with flooding rains around. You know, it's hard to believe that in 25 years there has only been a couple of major hurricanes to hit Texas.

[CajunMama]

...it is too early to
speculate on what portions of the U.S. Might be threatened.

If you live anywhere in the GOM Be prepared. It is too early to know where dennis will go. Watch and wait. At this point the only thing that is certain is we have a few days to watch and wait.

What part of this wasn't read? Yet I see landfall predictions in this thread???? What gives?

[loon]

Come on now, you know almost all the posters on here are 100% smarter than 100% of the other posters.....how can you not know where it is going already CM?

cheers,
loon

[ALhurricane]

If we couldn't speculate than this boad would cease to exist. That is what makes this fun!

In all seriousness, anything at this point is speculation, but the global models are giving us some pretty good ideas as to what may happen. If the 12z run of ECMWF agrees with its 00z run and the 00z and 12z runs of the GFS, then I think we are latching on to something. The trough looks to lift out over the eastern US and a ridge builds back in response.

This would put the north Gulf coast at the greateset risk... then down the line this could become a major flooding issue inland as the storm may get caught in a weak steering flow (i.e. no trough to pick up the storm).

[Brent]

...it is too early to
speculate on what portions of the U.S. Might be threatened.

If you live anywhere in the GOM Be prepared. It is too early to know where dennis will go. Watch and wait. At this point the only thing that is certain is we have a few days to watch and wait.

What part of this wasn't read? Yet I see landfall predictions in this thread???? What gives?

Come on... we're weather freaks. Speculation is a must.