I dont think Florida

[stormandan28]

has anything to worry about with Dennis it looks like everything is shifting west on the models.

[drudd1]

To far out to know who is on the hook and who is off at this point. You will see many more changes to the models over the coming days.

[dhweather]

It's way to soon to make that statement.

Florida (all of) and the GOM need to watch Dennis carefully.

[tracyswfla]

Someone please explain, why at 5 days out someone can make a prediction that Florida is safe.... very unwise and dangerous.

[seahawkjd]

Read MWatkins excellent post on the center. Its hard for the models to have a good grasp on track that far out even when they have a good fix on the center. Once it gets a little closer and we have recon / better data we'll have a better idea, I mean the thing was only officially named a storm less then an hour ago lol.

[Roxy]

Someone please explain, why at 5 days out someone can make a prediction that Florida is safe.... very unwise and dangerous.

apparently the same people who say Texas is safe (which it may be...but).... it's getting very annoying to see all these people who can predict the future. I wish I had that skill!

[tracyswfla]

Someone please explain, why at 5 days out someone can make a prediction that Florida is safe.... very unwise and dangerous.

apparently the same people who say Texas is safe (which it may be...but).... it's getting very annoying to see all these people who can predict the future. I wish I had that skill!

Most of us are regulars around here. But a new person who reads this will not take heed to the storm and could be in a dangerous situation.

[stormandan28]

is it seems alot of people here are saying its going to hit the same area where cindys is going and saying the models are more west.

[loon]

Its just a prediction, aka opinion. Don't worry, there will be 3700 posts about how "dangerous" a statement that was following in this thread, so even grandma and/or little susie q that stroll through here looking for answers won't take it serious...and HOPEFULLY will learn not to come here for answers, just for conversation. As per usual, the NHC/NOAA should be your ONLY source for making plans of any kind.

[Steve]

Don't **** off all the Floridians yet. They're going to get some effects from Dennis one way or another be it the Keys, SW FL and/or the Panhandle. Another payment on their hurricane installment is coming due.

Of course in the off chance that it does get a couple hundred miles west of the Peninsula, A98 should be coming into play to keep someone excited enough to post a pending fishook track .

Steve

[Roxy]

Someone please explain, why at 5 days out someone can make a prediction that Florida is safe.... very unwise and dangerous.

apparently the same people who say Texas is safe (which it may be...but).... it's getting very annoying to see all these people who can predict the future. I wish I had that skill!

Most of us are regulars around here. But a new person who reads this will not take heed to the storm and could be in a dangerous situation.

Absolutely, especially when one person says "it's going to Florida" and the next says, "Nope, not Florida...no way". Hard to take anyone seriously.

I hope that most people who read here leave it to the professionals!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Plus, a big part of the modeling is relying on projections of the ridge's strength down the road. A lot of that is contingent upon Cindy and how strong she gets and her affect on the ridge. Anything slightly different from what the models forecast with her originally, and this whole game could change. It is really just too far out to really know. In another 2 days we will have a much firmer grasp of things.
Until then, everyone needs to keep an eye on this and be sure their preparations are in order.
Seeing a slow down of late myself...so I think that the models all will have to slow up their paths anyway, regardless of direction at this point.

[Zadok]

A second tropical storm gained strength in the southeast Caribbean, forecasters said. Tropical Storm Dennis was centered about 355 miles south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and moving west at about 18 mph. It had top sustained wind of 40 mph. At 11 a.m. EDT, Dennis was centered at latitude 13.3 north, longitude 66.6 west.

It was on track to reach Haiti on Wednesday and South Florida on Friday, said hurricane center meteorologist Trisha Wallace.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -news-sfla

[jrod]

I think it will make landfall around the Tampa Bay area as a cat 3++. Cindy should erode that ridge and Dennis will be able to make a north turn. Ri ght now it is further north that Ivan was, I think all the computer models are showing a weakeness in the trough where there was none with Ivan, hence an earlier turn to the north. I do believe its track will be highly dependent on how strong it gets, the stronger it gets the sooner it will start a more northwesterly track.

***This is just my opinion, not a forecast. See the National Hurricane Center and local authorities for information on all tropical weather***

[jax]

I think it will make landfall around the Tampa Bay area as a cat 3++. Cindy should erode that ridge and Dennis will be able to make a north turn. Ri ght now it is further north that Ivan was, I think all the computer models are showing a weakeness in the trough where there was none with Ivan, hence an earlier turn to the north. I do believe its track will be highly dependent on how strong it gets, the stronger it gets the sooner it will start a more northwesterly track.

***This is just my opinion, not a forecast. See the National Hurricane Center and local authorities for information on all tropical weather***

Nahh... it's looking more and more like a NOLA to Mobile storm...
All the modles are suggesting this and JB set this area as the Hot Spot
for this year... he's been right on thus far...

[Canelaw99]

Nahh... it's looking more and more like a NOLA to Mobile storm...All the modles are suggesting this and JB set this area as the Hot Spot for this year... he's been right on thus far...

If you look at the page dixiebreeze posted to a few threads down, the global models there all seem to be showing a southern FL/Keys direction - not sure when they were run, but it's interesting.

I know that the models will shift once the recon goes in and fixes the center. Until then, we're all speculating

[Zadok]

Don't be fooled!! The sea turtles have been nesting much further up the beach here in florida just like last year! Keep your eye on the trend. Florida!!!!!

[HURAKAN]

Many people in Punta Gorda thought the same when Charley was approaching. Is too early to say if Florida is or not out of the question.

[jax]

Nahh... it's looking more and more like a NOLA to Mobile storm...All the modles are suggesting this and JB set this area as the Hot Spot for this year... he's been right on thus far...

If you look at the page dixiebreeze posted to a few threads down, the global models there all seem to be showing a southern FL/Keys direction - not sure when they were run, but it's interesting.

I know that the models will shift once the recon goes in and fixes the center. Until then, we're all speculating

Here are the models you are referring too... They all pass west of
Keys and Homestead... I think they are on to something... pretty
tight grouping at 5 days out...

http://weather.net-waves.com/td94.php

[jrod]

Accuweather was off to the left with Cindy yesterday and the day before. Once Dennis starts going a little more north JB and accuweather will shift thier attention to FLorida. My thinking is this storm will not make it further east than Ivan.