Tropical Storm Dora,Update=Downgraded to Depression
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Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 4
Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on July 04, 2005
...Fourth tropical storm of the season forms just west-southwest of
Acapulco...
At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has extended the
Tropical Storm Warning from Zihuatanejo westward to Punta San
Telmo. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for portions of
the south-central coast of Mexico from Acapulco westward to Punta
San Telmo.
At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has issued a tropical
storm watch for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico from
Punta San Telmo westward to Manzanillo.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located
near latitude 16.9 north... longitude 100.6 west or about 45
miles... 75 km... west-southwest of Acapulco Mexico and also about
105 miles... 170 km... southeast of Zihuatanejo Mexico.
Dora is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph ...15 km/hr. A
gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. On this track the center will move near or along the coast
of Mexico in the warning area through early Tuesday.
Nearby ship reports indicate maximum sustained winds have increased
near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some slight
strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
... 55 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches will be possible along the
south-central coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Punta San Telmo...
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible over
mountainous terrain. These rains could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 2 PM PDT position...16.9 N...100.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 5 PM PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 8 PM
PDT.
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch
Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on July 04, 2005
...Fourth tropical storm of the season forms just west-southwest of
Acapulco...
At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has extended the
Tropical Storm Warning from Zihuatanejo westward to Punta San
Telmo. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for portions of
the south-central coast of Mexico from Acapulco westward to Punta
San Telmo.
At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has issued a tropical
storm watch for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico from
Punta San Telmo westward to Manzanillo.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located
near latitude 16.9 north... longitude 100.6 west or about 45
miles... 75 km... west-southwest of Acapulco Mexico and also about
105 miles... 170 km... southeast of Zihuatanejo Mexico.
Dora is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph ...15 km/hr. A
gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. On this track the center will move near or along the coast
of Mexico in the warning area through early Tuesday.
Nearby ship reports indicate maximum sustained winds have increased
near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some slight
strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
... 55 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches will be possible along the
south-central coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Punta San Telmo...
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible over
mountainous terrain. These rains could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 2 PM PDT position...16.9 N...100.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 5 PM PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 8 PM
PDT.
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148503
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005
...DORA SKIRTING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA
SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES
... 80 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...17.0 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005
...DORA SKIRTING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA
SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES
... 80 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...17.0 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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KNHC 050231
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005
0300Z TUE JUL 05 2005
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF PUNTA SEL TELMO WESTWARD
TO MANZANILLO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.3W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.3W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.0W
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.7N 102.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.4N 103.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 105.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 101.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042005
0300Z TUE JUL 05 2005
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN
TELMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF PUNTA SEL TELMO WESTWARD
TO MANZANILLO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.3W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 101.3W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.0W
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.7N 102.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.4N 103.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 105.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 101.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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WTPZ44 KNHC 050320
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM
DORA HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING
AROUND A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND
HAS PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FROM
OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT ANY WORSE THAN
WHEN A 40-KT SHIP REPORT WAS RECEIVED EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THE
INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED
EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA IS BEGINNING
TO EXERT MORE OF A WESTWARD INFLUENCE ON DORA...POSSIBLY AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO...ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. OF COURSE...
ANY WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE...BUT BY 48
HOURS THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO TOWARD COLDER
WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE BAM MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPROVING...BUT THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN COAST HAS LIKELY BEEN INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER THAT CAN SPIN UP THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX...BUT ANY
SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM STARTS
PULLING AWAY FROM MEXICO...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL SOLUTION...AND
LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS DORA UP TO 62 KT IN 48
HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.2N 101.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 17.7N 102.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 18.4N 103.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 105.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 10/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM
DORA HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING
AROUND A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND
HAS PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FROM
OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT ANY WORSE THAN
WHEN A 40-KT SHIP REPORT WAS RECEIVED EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THE
INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED
EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA IS BEGINNING
TO EXERT MORE OF A WESTWARD INFLUENCE ON DORA...POSSIBLY AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO...ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. OF COURSE...
ANY WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE...BUT BY 48
HOURS THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO TOWARD COLDER
WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE BAM MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPROVING...BUT THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN COAST HAS LIKELY BEEN INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER THAT CAN SPIN UP THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX...BUT ANY
SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM STARTS
PULLING AWAY FROM MEXICO...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL SOLUTION...AND
LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS DORA UP TO 62 KT IN 48
HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.2N 101.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 17.7N 102.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 18.4N 103.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 105.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 10/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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P.K.
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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050831
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DORA HAS DECREASED
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE FEATURE WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TOPS TO -80C JUST OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/12...FASTER AND SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
LEFT THAN 6 HR AGO. DORA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE THAT COVERS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST 96 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DORA GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-48 HR...AND THEN WESTWARD FROM 48-96 HR.
THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE...AS THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL TAKE DORA NORTHWESTWARD FROM 48-72 HR BEFORE
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM....WHILE THE NHC91 AND THE VARIOUS BAM
MODELS FORECAST A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE NHC91/BAM
SCENARIO AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR. PROXIMITY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS LIKELY BEEN SLOWING DEVELOPMENT...BUT DORA
SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THOSE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12-24 HR. THIS
COULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE STORM REACHES COOLER
WATER IN 36-48 HR. AS NOTED...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL WEAKEN
DORA...INCLUDING THE GFDL THAT CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AFTER 42 HR.
THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS THE STORM TO 50 KT IN 36 HR...WITH
WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH SHIPS...BUT CALLS FOR A 45 KT PEAK INTENSITY IN 36 HR.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 17.9N 103.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 104.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.2N 106.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 19.7N 107.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 20.1N 109.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 20.5N 117.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
WTPZ44 KNHC 050831
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DORA HAS DECREASED
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE FEATURE WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TOPS TO -80C JUST OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/12...FASTER AND SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
LEFT THAN 6 HR AGO. DORA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE THAT COVERS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST 96 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DORA GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-48 HR...AND THEN WESTWARD FROM 48-96 HR.
THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE...AS THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL TAKE DORA NORTHWESTWARD FROM 48-72 HR BEFORE
DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM....WHILE THE NHC91 AND THE VARIOUS BAM
MODELS FORECAST A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE NHC91/BAM
SCENARIO AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
DORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR. PROXIMITY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS LIKELY BEEN SLOWING DEVELOPMENT...BUT DORA
SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THOSE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12-24 HR. THIS
COULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE STORM REACHES COOLER
WATER IN 36-48 HR. AS NOTED...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL WEAKEN
DORA...INCLUDING THE GFDL THAT CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AFTER 42 HR.
THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS THE STORM TO 50 KT IN 36 HR...WITH
WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH SHIPS...BUT CALLS FOR A 45 KT PEAK INTENSITY IN 36 HR.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 17.9N 103.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 104.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 19.2N 106.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 19.7N 107.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 20.1N 109.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 20.5N 117.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
...DORA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES... 160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO
ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...103.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
...DORA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES... 160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO
ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...103.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148503
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
...DORA STILL CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 180 MILES...
295 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATENEJO TO MANZANILLO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...18.3 N...104.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
...DORA STILL CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM... SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 180 MILES...
295 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER WILL MOVE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATENEJO TO MANZANILLO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...18.3 N...104.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 148503
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
051456
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
CONVECTION WAS SUFFICIENT AT 12Z FOR DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF
T2.5/35KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE THEN. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
GENEROUSLY MAINTAINED AT 35 KT... AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
DORA HAS ALREADY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND IS BEGINNING A
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS...AND WITHIN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE THAT DORA WILL BRIEFLY RECOVER AND PERHAPS GAIN A
LITTLE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE TO NEAR 45 KT AT 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER AS DORA PASSES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/11...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING ALSO REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE DORA TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE DISSIPATING
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN BUT ALONG THE SAME HEADING AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS
TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 18.3N 104.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 19.0N 105.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 19.7N 107.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 20.2N 109.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.6N 110.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 09/1200Z 21.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/1200Z 21.0N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
CONVECTION WAS SUFFICIENT AT 12Z FOR DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF
T2.5/35KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE THEN. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
GENEROUSLY MAINTAINED AT 35 KT... AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
DORA HAS ALREADY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND IS BEGINNING A
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS...AND WITHIN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE THAT DORA WILL BRIEFLY RECOVER AND PERHAPS GAIN A
LITTLE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE TO NEAR 45 KT AT 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER AS DORA PASSES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/11...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING ALSO REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE DORA TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE DISSIPATING
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN BUT ALONG THE SAME HEADING AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS
TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 18.3N 104.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 19.0N 105.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 19.7N 107.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 20.2N 109.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.6N 110.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 09/1200Z 21.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/1200Z 21.0N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL STORM DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
...DORA JUST OFFSHORE BUT BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM... SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES...
370 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.
DORA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE COAST...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATENEJO TO MANZANILLO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...18.4 N...104.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
2 PM PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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cycloneye
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
...DORA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
MEXICO...
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE
105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THE EFFECTS ON MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATENEJO TO MANZANILLO...
BRINGING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...18.5 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005
...DORA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
MEXICO...
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE
105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THE EFFECTS ON MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATENEJO TO MANZANILLO...
BRINGING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...18.5 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 8 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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