DENNIS MAJOR THREAT NEW ORLEANS to galveston

dwg71 · #41 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:19 pm

270?? Its hard to get a fix when there is not clear center.. I see the 290 - 300 as the trend.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

rsdoug1981 · #42 Postby **rsdoug1981** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:19 pm

FWIW, the 12z Euro has come into agreement with the 12z GFS.

#43 Postby **Steve** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:21 pm

Agreed Air Force. I don't have a call on the endgame (not even close, though I suspect eastern Gulf), Dennis will probably pass over Western Cuba/Isle of Youth way (seems like every other storm does that these days).

Steve

#44 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:21 pm

Johnny wrote:Thanks for the info. AFM. What do you think about Dennis going South of Jamaica? A good possibility?

Given the current movement...I give that a good chance of happening...especially since it will arrive in that area before the shortwave can pull it further north. It may track over them or just to the south. We have to wait and see. He may be just passing a really strong part of the ridge or he may be passing the ridge axis and resume a more WNW motion in a few hours...until the planes get out there are start getting some data to put into the models we won't have a decent handle on it.

#45 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:21 pm

Johnny wrote:Thanks for the info. AFM. What do you think about Dennis going South of Jamaica? A good possibility?

Given the current movement...I give that a good chance of happening...especially since it will arrive in that area before the shortwave can pull it further north. It may track over them or just to the south. We have to wait and see. He may be just passing a really strong part of the ridge or he may be passing the ridge axis and resume a more WNW motion in a few hours...until the planes get out there are start getting some data to put into the models we won't have a decent handle on it.

#46 Postby **loon** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:21 pm

dwg71 wrote:270?? Its hard to get a fix when there is not clear center.. I see the 290 - 300 as the trend.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

I imagine a prefessional military met might just have a little bit better equipment than the free stuff we dig up off the web. If AFM says its rolling at 270, I'd bet the farm on it.

cheers,
loon

Normandy · #47 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:22 pm

270?? Its hard to get a fix when there is not clear center.. I see the 290 - 300 as the trend.

Looking at the visibles I dont find it hard at all to spot the center... And id tend to agree with AFM's heading of 270.

gtalum · #48 Postby **gtalum** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:23 pm

Air Force, Schmair Force. What do they know?

canegrl04 · #49 Postby **canegrl04** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:24 pm

Its hard to imagine a cat 3 or 4 hurricane hitting this early :eek:

Prepare for a historic season

dwg71 · #50 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:24 pm

When I look at the NHC floater 2 with NHC forecast points added, it appears that the center is north of the points, am I missing something...

Normandy · #51 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:26 pm

dwg71 wrote:When I look at the NHC floater 2 with NHC forecast points added, it appears that the center is north of the points, am I missing something...

I spot the center due west of the first forecast point. About to move south of the next forecast point.

#52 Postby **loon** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:26 pm

dwg71 wrote:When I look at the NHC floater 2 with NHC forecast points added, it appears that the center is north of the points, am I missing something...

Your prescription glasses?

:lol:

just kidding

I guess you just see a different center than the rest of us, recon is on the way out, should have a sure fix then

dwg71 · #53 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:28 pm

I see center around 14N 67.5W...what do you think

#54 Postby **loon** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:37 pm

I think you are looking at the ULL.....

AL Chili Pepper · #55 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:39 pm

My general rule on a system like this is anything north of western Cuba is Bahamas, Florida, and East Coast. Anything over or real close to western Cuba and my eye starts twitching. Anything south of Cuba is TX or Mexico.

#56 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:40 pm

I think this thread should be titled:

DENNIS COULD BE A MAJOR THREAT FROM NEW ORLEANS to galveston

rainstorm · #57 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:33 pm

dhweather wrote:I think this thread should be titled:

DENNIS COULD BE A MAJOR THREAT FROM NEW ORLEANS to galveston

good point, but since i dont see anything near the monster trough that turned charley last year, i think this is a threat for tx/la

Normandy · #58 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:34 pm

Unless this thing starts moving NW it will definitely hit Jamaica or come real close to.

dwg71 · #59 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:35 pm

It wont take a monster trough, it only needs to ride the ridge to its east. Models are in pretty good agreeance that the furthest west this could get is NOLA, that could change, but I dont think TX is in play.

Normandy · #60 Postby **Normandy** » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:36 pm

Well that NOLA hit is assuming it passes north of Jamaica, which it probably wont given the movement...

DENNIS MAJOR THREAT NEW ORLEANS to galveston

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