Tropical Storm Cindy =Downgraded,Last Advisory

[cycloneye]

05/1745 UTC 27.5N 90.6W T3.0/3.0 CINDY -- Atlantic Ocean

[LSU2001]

a Beer??????????????

[T-man]

Massive quantities, nip! nip!

[drezee]

128
WTNT63 KNHC 051917
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN CINDY ARE NEAR 70 MPH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

Oh my almost a cane now.

[Steve]

Cyclone,

That's a different center than what the vortex put out a while back. Is it accurate?

Steve

[T-man]

I guess I better go retie the boat-again. Surely they will advise as to an increase in storm surge?

[goodlife]

90.6? Looks like .2 degree shift west...hmmm

[feederband]

Come on give her 5 more.....

[T-man]

wobble?

[cycloneye]

Advisory shortly.

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 052029
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005

...HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS SPREADING ONSHORE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST AS CINDY APPROACHES...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES... 155 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH ARE FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTNT43 KNHC 052030
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005

THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A FEW SPOT SURFACE WIND
ESTIMATES AROUND 64 KT. HOWEVER...THE CREW OF THE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT THESE WIND SPEEDS WERE A LITTLE TOO HIGH. THE
SATELLITE AND RADAR-OBSERVED STRUCTURE...CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE CENTER CROSSES
INTO THE MARSHY DELTA REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLIGHT BEND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF THE
PERIOD AND IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD TO AGREE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

NO CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED.
PREDICTED STORM SURGE VALUES ARE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY BASED ON A
LITTLE STRONGER STORM.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 28.2N 90.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 29.7N 89.8W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/1800Z 31.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0600Z 33.2N 86.7W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/1800Z 34.7N 84.1W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 08/1800Z 37.0N 78.5W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 09/1800Z 39.5N 71.5W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

[loon]

Still won't say she could become hurricane...I find this very troubling...whats the harm in warning folks that it could, especially when recon found a 997mb....

this is strange to me

[Brent]

[Thunder44]

This advisory was probably written around 4pm EDT.

[jkt21787]

This advisory was probably written around 4pm.

True, but if there was anything last minute that required hurricane watches/warnings or an upgrade in intensity, they would have done it.

Fact is that in all likelyhood (at least in NHC's opinion), we will be dealing with TS Cindy rather than Hurricane Cindy. And with the center quickly approaching the coast, I see no reason to disagree with it.

Some isolated hurricane force wind gusts are possible immediately along the shore though.

[cycloneye]

Advisory shortly.

[feederband]

Advisory shortly.

Are you refering to the 8 PM...?

[Andrew92]

8:00 EDT/7:00 CDT Cindy right here

...Heavy rains and squalls lashing the southeastern coast of
Louisiana...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Morgan City Louisiana
eastward to Destin Florida...and a tropical storm watch is in
effect east of Destin to Indian Pass Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 7 PM CDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located
near latitude 28.5 north... longitude 90.3 west or about 55
miles south-southwest of Grand Isle Louisiana.

Cindy is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph ...and a
gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected during the next 24
hours. On this track the center will be near the southeast
Louisiana coast later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...with higher gusts. Some
slight strengtthening is still possible until landfall occurs.
During the past hour...an offshore oil platform northeast of the
center reported a wind gust to 99 mph at a height of 150 ft.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles to the
east of the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 992 mb...29.29 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels is
possible near and to the east of where the center crosses the
coast.

Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible over the
central Gulf Coast and parts of the southeastern U.S....with
isolated maximum amounts to 10 inches.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southeastern
Louisiana...southern Mississippi...southern Alabama...and the
western Florida Panhandle today.

Repeating the 7 PM CDT position...28.5 N... 90.3 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 70
mph. Minimum central pressure...992 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 10 PM CDT.

Forecaster Stewart


$$

Still a TS, but may become a hurricane.

-Andrew92