MM5FSU Model has Major Hurricane Dennis up FL West Coast

[gatorcane]

This appears to be an outlier given the other models but I don't like this one bit. FL better count on that ridge holding

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005070500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

[BonesXL]

Wow, things could get interesting

[dixiebreeze]

MERCY

[chris_fit]

Yea That's right over my mom's house.
No Fun.

[Brent]

That looks fun.

[Rainband]

the MM5 bombed Cindy..if I remember correctly so......

[sweetpea]

Why does this model show something entirely different than all the others? Is the model not used in the charts?

[gatorcane]

Why does this model show something entirely different than all the others? Is the model not used in the charts?

I'm wondering the same thing.

[Scorpion]

The ridge that saves us from this can potentially bring about great problems for us come August.

[JPmia]

Look at the time of that model run...it is from midnight last night. I bet it will change tonight. Many of the other models have been updated since then and show a trend west of that. We shall see.

[ericinmia]

The mm5 can be run in different ways, the way that fsu is running it tends to cause storms to OverIntensify...

I am tired of arguing with people so i wasn't going to post this, but to supplement boca_chris' post.

Can any of the pro mets explain the descrepancies on how the models are handling the ridge. The Bermuda High for example in the gfs and cmc is pretty much the same, however... its stronger and further west in the cmc but the cmc brings dennis much closer to florida's west coast around 72 hours. But with the gfs the high is weaker and further displaced to the east than in the cmc, but the Dennis heads farther west. Going by shear physics here why does/did the gfs portray Dennis heading wnw under the influence of NO high pressure ridge.

I was simply wonder about this incongruity that i noticed earlier on, and was wondering if anyone had looked at the forcasted positions of the ridge in comparison frame by frame with other models.
-Eric

[gatorcane]

absolutely. August-Sept will be interesting when the CV season gets into full swing.

[MetroMike]

Well evidentally that model is picking up on something that the other models aren't showing. Could be a trend or just a quirk.

[Josephine96]

Now that would definitely be interesting..

Are you listening TAMPA BAY?

LOL sorry for the sarcasm.. it just felt right at the time..

[Ixolib]

The ridge that saves us from this can potentially bring about great problems for us come August.

Good point...

[gatorcane]

Now that would definitely be interesting..

Are you listening TAMPA BAY?

LOL sorry for the sarcasm.. it just felt right at the time..

I hope so because apparently the MM5 model is factoring in a strong Cindy which weakens the ridge to allow Dennis to move more NW...that is a DEFINITE scenario for all of you along the west coast of FL

[Josephine96]

Now if that ridge breaks.. things could get interesting.. I'm hoping that wherever Dennis ends up.. It is just a big ole' rainmaker with not much winds if possible..

[gatorcane]

Why do I get the feeling that Charley is sending Dennis to finish off his unfinished work from last year along the west coast of FL....

[Derek Ortt]

for the 100th time

the FSU MM5 is run at too low of a resolution. MM5 needs to be run much higher, more like under 20km (tomorrow, with Dennis being farther to the west, I can start using 15km instead of 18

I keep meaning a low resolution, not high

[gatorcane]

for the 100th time

the FSU MM5 is run at too high of a resolution. MM5 needs to be run much higher, more like under 20km (tomorrow, with Dennis being farther to the west, I can start using 15km instead of 18

Thanks that would explain it.