key west

[freeport_texas22]

The new 0z NAM (old ETA) has shifted east a bit. 84 hours it's sitting on Key West FL.

[Canelaw99]

Do you have a link for me to use??

[Scorpion]

[tcmitch2]

Do you have a link for me to use??

got this from another post.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[flyingphish]

If Dennis the Menace gets strong enough he may take a short swing up the ridge, aided by the weakness created by Cindy. Cannot believe the activity. Farewell.

[WeatherNole]

Here's the 84 hour NAM from the 0Z run (Tuesday night).

I'm starting to get just a bit concerned for my viewing area.



--

Mike

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[mahicks]

Whats your thoughts on Dennis?

I'm only asking because I live in Tallahassee too.



GO NOLES!!!!!

[WeatherNole]

You mean you didn't just watch me a few minutes ago?? (Yeah - that's me.)

There are so many scenarios right now that the best (or worst) I can say is that I'm "concerned" about Dennis. All the models underestimated the strength of Cindy. As such, I hope the models compensate for that in the next run or two. What is critical is just how much Cindy weakens the ridge to the north, and how long will that weakness will stay there. I just don't see the Atlantic sub-tropical ridge being strong enough to steer Dennis toward Mexico or even Texas. Right now Dennis is looking more and more like Ivan (scary thought). Based on what I see right now I'd expect a Cat 2 or possibly a borderline 3 to head at the central or northeast Gulf coast. (Yeah, I know - "duh". That's probably what just about everybody is thinking.) But there's no way I could pinpoint it anymore without getting a better feel on the impact that Cindy will have on the ridge to the north, and just how much the sub-tropical ridge will erode in the Atlantic.)

Either way - I'm planning on spending some of my weekend here at work. Ugh.

Mike

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[flyingphish]

1008mb sitting off Sw Fl...shallow and boiling hot. Have we seen this somewhere too soon past? Ugly Model and it's only July. Watching ...

[gatorcane]

Watch out FL Keys

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_slp_060l.gif

[Scorpion]

How bad would that affect us under that scenario?

[MysticOne]

Thank you Mike (WeatherNole) for taking the time to post. I found your comments very informative.

It is wonderful to have a place to come and find out what the experts believe in comparison to my own very limited knowledge of these type of systems.

[Hurricaneman]

I also love to hear from the experts

[jhamps10]

I also like to hear from the actual experts, not the weather people here who just try to forcast snowstorms and twisters, except for one, but he's on vaction this week.