2 AM EDT advisory on Dennis....

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iceangel
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2 AM EDT advisory on Dennis....

#1 Postby iceangel » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:55 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 060544
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...DENNIS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA....

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR EASTERN CUBA
FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

A HURRICANE WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
AND PORT-AU-PRINCE WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CUBA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES... 500 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 495 MILES... 800 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...14.8 N... 69.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA


$$
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#2 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:56 am

Speed down to 15 mph now...
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:56 am

Slowing speed = possible more NW turn?
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#4 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:57 am

Hes slowing down
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Foladar

#5 Postby Foladar » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:59 am

Odd, he's slowing to 15 as of 2am?
My local news station mentioned he slowed to 15mph as of 11pm
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#6 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:59 am

In the Past 3 hours it has moved .2 North and .5 West

11 Pm

14.6 N 69.2 W

2 AM

14.8 N 69.7 W
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:00 am

that just doesn't seem right.
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#8 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:00 am

Not much of a slowdown..

Still a decent clip....Could be a sign though...
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#9 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:00 am

Foladar wrote:Odd, he's slowing to 15 as of 2am?
My local news station mentioned he slowed to 15mph as of 11pm


Thats interesting because at 11 PM the NHC had his speed at 17 Mph.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...14.6 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
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#10 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:01 am

Dennis looks mighty powerful on IR Sat for a 50mph storm.

<RICKY>
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#11 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:02 am

Wnghs2007 wrote:In the Past 3 hours it has moved .2 North and .5 West

11 Pm

14.6 N 69.2 W

2 AM

14.8 N 69.7 W



There is no recon in there, correct?

So there is no true center yet...
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#12 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:02 am

Do you think Haiti will probably take extra precautions for Dennis because of Jeanne?
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#13 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:02 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Dennis looks mighty powerful on IR Sat for a 50mph storm.

<RICKY>


NHC will probally wade on the side of Caution until recon gets down there later today to tell the real story.
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#14 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:03 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:In the Past 3 hours it has moved .2 North and .5 West

11 Pm

14.6 N 69.2 W

2 AM

14.8 N 69.7 W



There is no recon in there, correct?

So there is no true center yet...



Yes that is just basing it off of the 11 PM and 2 PM Advisories. Though you can see the Center on IR on the W edge of the Convection according to Derek Ortt due to Shear.
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#15 Postby Foladar » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:04 am

Wnghs2007 wrote:
Foladar wrote:Odd, he's slowing to 15 as of 2am?
My local news station mentioned he slowed to 15mph as of 11pm


Thats interesting because at 11 PM the NHC had his speed at 17 Mph.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...14.6 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

Jeez, three different stations said 15mph :eek: Bad news.
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#16 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:05 am

Real bad news
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#17 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:07 am

Wnghs2007 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Dennis looks mighty powerful on IR Sat for a 50mph storm.

<RICKY>


NHC will probally wade on the side of Caution until recon gets down there later today to tell the real story.


Yeah I know. I just tend to get a bit excited at times :D

<RICKY>
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#18 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:07 am

I do to
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#19 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:12 am

can't believe winds are still only 50...I was thinking 60 for this time
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#20 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:13 am

Id say 65
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