this looks like a texas storm

[rainstorm]

to me the critical point is whether it goes north or south of jamaica. if it does what the models say here, then i would think louisiana might get hit. if its south, then texas is more likely

[Normandy]

Hmm...I would think in order for it to hit TX it would have to clip the Yucatan....I already think its passing south of Jamaica.

[corpusbreeze]

All I can say it will make the GOM. By then who knows? Upper air dynamic could change drastically.

[Swimdude]

its the BAM model man.. check out weatherunderground

I agree that this is all too early to predict, but from what i've seen, one model takes the storm towards Florida. Two take it into the central Gulf states. The final two take the storm towards Houston. [We're overdue!]

[Normandy]

Yea really all depends on the ridge.

[Air Force Met]

I think the ridge is going to be too far north for it to be a TX storm. That's why I'm going for a LA coast landfall.

[cajungal]

Yikes! Bob Breck said that IF Dennis appears to a threat to the Louisiana coast, then evacuations will have to start as soon as Saturday.

[gkrangers]

I think the ridge is going to be too far north for it to be a TX storm. That's why I'm going for a LA coast landfall.

Best to sleep the next two days, cuz theres gonna be alot of late nights the end of the week....

[GalvestonDuck]

No I don't think so. Read Donsutherland's post in the pro-met forum" Dennis Likely to Pose Significant U.S. Landfall Threat"

Texas is in the US last time I looked....

Clearly, Chris was simply stating an opinion -- that it wouldn't be a TX landfall. Then, Chris suggested that we read DS's post in the pro-met forum with THAT title. I don't think Chris was using the title of the post as a quote against TX landfall -- just simply directing us to WHICH post to read. I read it and, although it also suggests TX as a possibility, we are on the edge of his forecast for landfall.

And obviously, Chris was not implying that TX is not in the US.

[tw861]

Well, this is interesting. Of course if will change many times over the next 7 days. I think the 00z NAM has shifted east a little. Although some say the NAM is terrible with tropical systems. THe 00z GFS shoud be running now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Portastorm]

The 0z run (july 6) of the GFS draws up an interesting path for Dennis where he approaches the middle Texas coast then recurves to the north and northeast.

[tw861]

The 0z run (july 6) of the GFS draws up an interesting path for Dennis where he approaches the middle Texas coast then recurves to the north and northeast.

Are you kidding ? I can only get 66 hours of the 00z Jul6 run so far. But to that point it is very similar to the 18z Jul5 run.

I like the end result better on the 18z Jul5 run than what you atr saying.

[Portastorm]

The 0z run (july 6) of the GFS draws up an interesting path for Dennis where he approaches the middle Texas coast then recurves to the north and northeast.

Are you kidding ? I can only get 66 hours of the 00z Jul6 run so far. But to that point it is very similar to the 18z Jul5 run.

I like the end result better on the 18z Jul5 run than what you atr saying.

Nope, not kidding at all!

However, it should be pointed out that this track is the first of its kind I have seen re: Dennis. Who knows? We'll all go back and forth I'm sure until the expert minds get a better handle on things.

[Anonymous]

I think it is way to early to predict a landfall point. The models will shift back and forth for a couple more days.

[southerngale]

FWIW, and for those who know him, DT came in chat late last night and predicted a Texas landfall. He backed up his thoughts with graphics and maps, explaining why. He also said it could easily become a cat.3 or 4.

[Anonymous]

FWIW, and for those who know him, DT came in chat late last night and predicted a Texas landfall. He backed up his thoughts with graphics and maps, explaining why. He also said it could easily become a cat.3 or 4.

Sotherngale
I do not mean to ask a stupid question here but who is DT just so I will know for the future lol

[HouTXmetro]

I highly doubt it, but look at the latest Houston forecast.

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 20x240.jpg


They still think it's possible.

[melhow]

I highly doubt it, but look at the latest Houston forecast.

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 20x240.jpg


They still think it's possible.

Whoever was manning the weather graphics desk when that was created and broadcast should be fired.

[GalvestonDuck]

I highly doubt it, but look at the latest Houston forecast.

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 20x240.jpg


They still think it's possible.

Whoever was manning the weather graphics desk when that was created and broadcast should be fired.

Why? They put a question mark with it. I think most of us here all know what they're saying -- "It's possible...don't rule it out yet...we're watching."

[seahawkjd]

You mind backing up the "should be fired" statement with some reasoning?