Arizona Monsoon Outlook?

[azskyman]

As we shoot right past the first four days of July because of the holiday on a Monday, we'll find ourselves looking for thunderstorms to start to show up anytime. However, air here in the valley has been so dry for a couple of weeks, that it will take some sort of shift from the SE to begin to break that down and add some moisture at mid and high levels first...and then low level.

Curious Steve, after reading your notes about the upcoming monsoon here, if you have any revised thinking on the beginning of the REAL monsoon first in your area, and then north and west into the valley.

[Aslkahuna]

My revised outlook will be posted on my homepage by tomorrow midnight.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Could THIS year actually BE the year WITHOUT a Monsoon? It sure starting to LOOK like it As Steve said, it's drier than a popcorn f*rt out here! Humidity levels here yesterday...........4%

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

My revised outlook has been posted on my homepage. There has never been a year without a monsoon but there have been years with very wimpy monsoons-last year was a good example.

Steve

[riverratmike]

My revised outlook has been posted on my homepage. There has never been a year without a monsoon but there have been years with very wimpy monsoons-last year was a good example.

Steve

What? Last year was great for monsoon activity here in Havasu. We had a good storm almost every week. Much more thunderstorms in 2004 than in 2003 by far.

[Aslkahuna]

The monsoon in SE AZ was pitiful beyond belief.

Steve

[TT-SEA]

Is it just me... I cannot find anything or link to anything on your homepage that looks like a monsoon forecast.

I also cannot find this "special topics" link.

I think it needs an overhaul.

[Aslkahuna]

If you go to the homepage click on the Potpourri menu option and the Special Topics will be found in that section. Otherwise, go to
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepage ... ecialt.htm

Steve

[azsnowman]

I agree with the last paragraph!! We've had unseasonably HOT temps up here, the last time we had these hot temps, we had one helluva monsoon, SEVERE storms with NUMEROUS hail events.....I don't have my hands on my stats but it seemed liked it was 1997, we had temps 6-9° above normal, each event brought hail stones, most the size of marbles to quarter size.

Dennis

[SEAZSky]

Hey Snowman -

Maybe this will be followed by a "good" monsoon
season:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8621133/

Stan
Oro Valley, AZ

I agree with the last paragraph!! We've had unseasonably HOT temps up here, the last time we had these hot temps, we had one helluva monsoon, SEVERE storms with NUMEROUS hail events.....I don't have my hands on my stats but it seemed liked it was 1997, we had temps 6-9° above normal, each event brought hail stones, most the size of marbles to quarter size.

Dennis

[riverratmike]

Looks like somethings going to finally start here in the next couple of days. Don't know if it's the offical start of the monsoon or it we are just getting tropical mositure for Emmily. But my 10 day forcast is isolated thunderstorms in there almost every day for the Lake Havasu City, AZ forcast. Man I can't wait. Bring it on!

[riverratmike]

Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 90s. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of thunderstorms 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs around 121. Light wind becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 90s. Southwest wind around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs around 116. Light wind becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 90. South wind around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Friday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning...then chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 114. Chance of thunderstorms 30 percent.

Friday night: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 90s.

Saturday: Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs around 107. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 80s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 108.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 80s.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 107.

Monday night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 80s.

[azskyman]

I think this is our shot to crank it up. By Thursday and through the weekend looks like the best opportunity to get some needed rain and storminess. Maybe enhanced by the remnant moisture of Emily.

Lightning off to my north as I write...but rain is very spotty these days. Still...humidity is up as are dew points, so this is likely the beginning of that season.

[riverratmike]

it's official! The AZ monsoon season has started. Dew point here in Havasu is currently 62

[weatherlover427]

Raining here in southern California (not yet where I live but it is just an hour or so away). I think it's asafe to say we are in that time of year, finally. San Diego has already had some light rain today, and parts of the San Bernardino and Riverside County areas have even seen some thunderstorm action (and not just the mountains either).

[Aslkahuna]

Official start in Tucson is July 18th and here in Sierra Vista I'm calling July 17th as we met my criteria a day earlier. Busted the start call bad this year as I thought we would get an earlier start but the early indications are that my drier than normal call will be right.

Steve

[azskyman]

Some really nice activity going on SE of Phoenix tonight, and the flow aloft is slowly shifting from a NE direction to more easterly and perhaps even southeasterly. I like the dimension that adds to our chances in the days ahead.

I actually had .04 from a popcorn storm just before midnight last night...and read on another thread that the outflow boundary from that cluster made it all the way to Los Angeles!!!

Fascinating!

[riverratmike]

Here we go! I severe thunderstorm just about 50 miles from me right now. Lighnting is nuts and going off!!!!




SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

AZC012-220515-
/O.COR.KPSR.SV.W.0020.050722T0410Z-050722T0515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
910 PM MST THU JUL 21 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR..
CENTRAL LA PAZ COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 1015 PM MST

* AT 910 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BRENDA...OR ABOUT 28 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PARKER...AND
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
QUARTZSITE AND BOUSE.

[azskyman]

Pretty wild storm here at 9:30 pm last night...have not yet seen reports of damage, but sure there will be some. .36" of rain in about 30 minutes. Gusty E winds.

Air is heavy this morning with a low of 84, so we are in a good position for more to come here on the valley floor.

[riverratmike]

here is one I captured last night