Dennis Forecast 5: Cat. 3/4 in northern GOM...UNOFFICIAL

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 5:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ennis.html

I'm going with the northern solution on this one, at least this time around. A lot of this is based on the patterns shown by UKMET, which I am trusting here. The output itself has been an eastern outlier, but the general idea supports a turn to the northwest. It is possible, as the forecast mentions, that a jog to the west of its forward direction toward US landfall could occur as the ridge builds back in. Intensity is ; I'll be working all day, trying to figure out what the GOM has in store in Dennis...intensity could go either way.

Scott

[weatherwindow]

nc...may be unofficial but the intensity guidance, specifically the gfdl, is forecasting 120+ kts south of cuba. if GOM is not particularly hostile, a cat 3/4 is reasonable ......this could be the strongest july landfall ever in the GOM.................rich

[ncweatherwizard]

Well the GFDL intensity forecasting is generally less than desirable; it often tends to overintensify systems (but I can think of some weaker systems that it did underestimate) Of course, it will do better than usual when a system is forecasted to become strong, simply because it forecasts a strong storm almost by default, so it won't be too far off, but I'm not willing to back a forecast with GFDL intensity guidance.

[Derek Ortt]

official GFDL from the ATCF file is only about 110KT

you have to reduce the winds shown on the model maps by about 15% as those are at 950mb, not the surface

[ncweatherwizard]

Exactly. I just assumed 120kts was right (Honestly, I don't even look at GFDL intensity guidance anymore.) But yeah...if you read those maps, read all the words, it ain't quite at the surface.