Tropical Storm Dennis

[Brent]

[seahawkjd]

They really expect it to take a curve don't they? Also notice the turn back towards the left at the end of the forcast.

[cycloneye]

061449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...DENNIS A LITTLE STRONGER AND NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY...
...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES... 365 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 395 MILES... 635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...15.4 N... 71.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[loon]

.2N .7W

[Johnny]

I said it yesterday and I will say it again. I don't see Dennis going north of Jamaica but rather passing just to the south.

[x-y-no]

Hurricane by the 2pm intermediate advisory.

[LAwxrgal]

Still WNW. More northerly component than yesterday but still basicaly WNW.

[wx247]

They really expect it to take a curve don't they? Also notice the turn back towards the left at the end of the forcast.

That track still initially looks to far north to me. Hmmm...

[ncweatherwizard]

They really expect it to take a curve don't they? Also notice the turn back towards the left at the end of the forcast.

Yeah, I mentioned that at 10am...they're probably banking on the ridge to build westward as well (makes sense). If it does turn northwest like this, then you'll quite possibly see that nudge back westward before landfall, rather than a sharp turn. Good forecast IMO.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane by the 2pm intermediate advisory.

Very possible as recon reaches the area by that time.

[Roxy]

More westward movement? Or are my little dots on my map to big?

[chris_fit]

Also slowed down a tad again.

[cycloneye]

Discussion shortly will be posted.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Notice how Dennis has already slowed down a bit from the last few days. I think it will actually hit Jamaica, not go north or south of it. It will slow up a littl emore too. I bet it is going to be going at 12mph when it hits Jamaica. It will slow even more after that.

[loon]

Slowing down would be bad for the western half of the GOM I would think, as the timing would be thrown and cause the trough to become a non issue...I don't believe he slowed down that much, if any, they say 15mph when he has been 15 or 17mph most of the time since he became a storm...you could be right though, just have to see

[wx247]

15 mph is down considerably from the 20 mph he was at when he was first classified. I think it is a very important component to the forecast as well.

[chris_fit]

Slowing down would be bad for the western half of the GOM I would think, as the timing would be thrown and cause the trough to become a non issue...I don't believe he slowed down that much, if any, they say 15mph when he has been 15 or 17mph most of the time since he became a storm...you could be right though, just have to see

He was going 20mph when he formed.

[seaswing]

hmmmmm I bought a generator during the tax free week....better get it out of the box and get it seasoned.... a repeat of last year.... a TS is no fun when you are inland...lots of trees here (big ones!) Frances and Jeanne played havoc on us inland folks. Didn't matter how far inland you were last year, the size of the storms made us all feel the pain! Yep, better get that generator out!!!

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Dennis Discussion Number 7

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 06, 2005

Dennis appears to be very close to hurricane strength...but the
inner core seems to still be in the organizing stages. 12z Dvorak
classifications were t4.0/65 kt from TAFB and t3.5/55 kt from
SAB...and the advisory intensity will compromise at 60 kt. The
convective tops of the banding evident at 12z have since warmed
slightly...but a new convective burst has recently occurred near
the estimated center location. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate Dennis this afternoon to better
determine the intensity. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are
forecast to remain favorable throughout the five-day forecast
period... including warm waters in the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico...and weak vertical wind shear as indicated by
most of the global model guidance. The official intensity forecast
is similar to the previous advisory and to the latest GFDL run in
bringing Dennis to major hurricane status by 48 hours.
The initial motion estimate is 290/13. The subtropical ridge
currently centered north of Cuba is the primary mechanism that
should steer Dennis generally toward the west-northwest for about
the next three days until it crosses Cuba. Thereafter...a gradual
turn to the right around the western periphery of the ridge is
expected. The dynamical model guidance is in very close agreement
through day three...but with some divergence thereafter over the
Gulf of Mexico...with the GFS on the left and the
GFDL...UKMET...and NOGAPS on the right. The official forecast
remains similar to the previous advisory and is very close to a
consensus of the dynamical models...including the faster conu and
the slower Florida State University superensemble. It is important
to emphasize that forecast errors at these longer ranges can be
quite large...and one should not focus on the exact track forecast.

Forecaster Knabb

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 06/1500z 15.4n 71.5w 60 kt
12hr VT 07/0000z 16.5n 73.5w 65 kt
24hr VT 07/1200z 18.1n 76.1w 75 kt
36hr VT 08/0000z 19.8n 78.7w 90 kt
48hr VT 08/1200z 21.1n 80.9w 100 kt
72hr VT 09/1200z 23.5n 84.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 10/1200z 27.0n 85.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 11/1200z 30.5n 87.0w 100 kt...inland

[loon]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

{snip}

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...12.5 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.



That was the first adv....as I said...17MPH