TS Dennis--When will there be Watches/Warnings?

[Deenac813]

Hello everyone. I am trying to get an idea when you think any watches or warnings will be issued for ANY part of florida from Tropical Storm Dennis. Any thoughts? Thanks!

[cycloneye]

No it is too early for Florida panhandle or penninsula being in watches or warnings.The exception will be the Keys where they may have watches by tommorow or friday depending on how is the motion.

[x-y-no]

I'd certainly expect a TS watch for the lower keys Thursday night, latest Friday morning. TS warning Friday night.

If Dennis tracks further right than anticipated, additional watches and warnings would likely go up in th Friday timeframe.

I'm getting more and more confident that the Florida peninsula will be spared, though. 24 more hours like this and our area is in good shape. Sorry I can't say the same for Louisiana through the panhandle.

[Brent]

For the Gulf Coast... probably not before Friday Night.

Keys could have one tomorrow night since TS force winds will probably brush the Lower Keys.

[Pebbles]

Oh there is quite a bit of time before that... remember the criteria for a watch is 36 hours out and a warning 24 hours out. And that is from eye landfall. I still find this time-line a tad concerning because it can be deceiving to those that don't keep in mind that the effects of the storm are felt well before the eye landfall. This means you have actually less then 24/36 hours of prep time. An ongoing discussion in many areas that limits evacuation times. Specially when storms are due to impact the eastern gulf coasts and FL. Unfortunately people do not like to be evacuated and not be hit by the storm. Hoping that with the improvement of hurricane prediction, one day those numbers can be raised to allow more evacuation time without causing needless evacuations.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If this storm does get very strong, I wouldn't be suprised to see some west coast Floridians evacuate "just in case" after they saw what Charley did last year. -even though we know that won't happen because the setup isn't right, the majority of folks don't hang out in weather forums and would just see the news and assume that it *could* happen that way again.

[rockyman]

Oh there is quite a bit of time before that... remember the criteria for a watch is 36 hours out and a warning 24 hours out. And that is from eye landfall. I still find this time-line a tad concerning because it can be deceiving to those that don't keep in mind that the effects of the storm are felt well before the eye landfall. This means you have actually less then 24/36 hours of prep time. An ongoing discussion in many areas that limits evacuation times. Specially when storms are due to impact the eastern gulf coasts and FL. Unfortunately people do not like to be evacuated and not be hit by the storm. Hoping that with the improvement of hurricane prediction, one day those numbers can be raised to allow more evacuation time without causing needless evacuations.

Actually, the watches and warning are 36 and 24 hours before onset of hurricane or TS conditions, not landfall...


Hurricane Warning:
A warning that sustained winds 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or higher associated with a hurricane are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours or less. A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.


Hurricane Watch:
An announcement for specific coastal areas that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours.


Tropical Storm Warning:
A warning that sustained winds within the range of 34 to 63 kt (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less.


Tropical Storm Watch:
An announcement for specific coastal areas that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

[Pebbles]

Oh there is quite a bit of time before that... remember the criteria for a watch is 36 hours out and a warning 24 hours out. And that is from eye landfall. I still find this time-line a tad concerning because it can be deceiving to those that don't keep in mind that the effects of the storm are felt well before the eye landfall. This means you have actually less then 24/36 hours of prep time. An ongoing discussion in many areas that limits evacuation times. Specially when storms are due to impact the eastern gulf coasts and FL. Unfortunately people do not like to be evacuated and not be hit by the storm. Hoping that with the improvement of hurricane prediction, one day those numbers can be raised to allow more evacuation time without causing needless evacuations.

Actually, the watches and warning are 36 and 24 hours before onset of hurricane or TS conditions, not landfall...


Hurricane Warning:
A warning that sustained winds 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or higher associated with a hurricane are expected in a specified coastal area in 24 hours or less. A hurricane warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.


Hurricane Watch:
An announcement for specific coastal areas that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours.


Tropical Storm Warning:
A warning that sustained winds within the range of 34 to 63 kt (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) associated with a tropical cyclone are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less.


Tropical Storm Watch:
An announcement for specific coastal areas that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

Thanks for correcting me I dunno where I thought it was from the eye making landfall. Maybe it's from harping all these years not to watch when the eye is going to make landfall but rather the outerbands to give yourself enough time to evactuate. Just remember having to tell a whole family it was too late to leave and them saying the storm isn't even here yet as the rain and wind pounded around us. Um... maybe the eye isn't.. but the storm is!

[rockyman]

No problem! The only time there is really a big difference is when you have strong hurricanes...that affect the coast hours before the eye arrives...On Dauphin Island (where I live), the causeway leading to the Island bridge usually floods about 12-24 hours before the eye arrives...so it is very critical that people evacuate early.

[baygirl_1]

No problem! The only time there is really a big difference is when you have strong hurricanes...that affect the coast hours before the eye arrives...On Dauphin Island (where I live), the causeway leading to the Island bridge usually floods about 12-24 hours before the eye arrives...so it is very critical that people evacuate early.

even more critical if some of the models prove true and he threatens LA. didn't i see a post here that it would take like 50 hours for evac of NOLA? they would have to post warnings like Sat., perhaps???

[rtd2]

No problem! The only time there is really a big difference is when you have strong hurricanes...that affect the coast hours before the eye arrives...On Dauphin Island (where I live), the causeway leading to the Island bridge usually floods about 12-24 hours before the eye arrives...so it is very critical that people evacuate early.

even more critical if some of the models prove true and he threatens LA. didn't i see a post here that it would take like 50 hours for evac of NOLA? they would have to post warnings like Sat., perhaps???

You are Correct and WWL in NOLA just Said EVAC plans Could go into action as early as Friday Afternoon. Depending on track/froecast But They would USE the 50 Rule for Contra-flow!

[Droop12]

Before Ivan last year we had a watch for I think 51 hours. I remember hearing that on the news or something. I dont know exactly but I know we had a Hurricane Watch up for well over 36 hours. And thats not a bad thing, as soon as people saw Ivan coming they listened and payed attention and left when it was necassary. Around 30 hours before landfall the warnings came out and anyone still around left. It worked great.

[Brent]

Before Ivan last year we had a watch for I think 51 hours. I remember hearing that on the news or something. I dont know exactly but I know we had a Hurricane Watch up for well over 36 hours. And thats not a bad thing, as soon as people saw Ivan coming they listened and payed attention and left when it was necassary. Around 30 hours before landfall the warnings came out and anyone still around left. It worked great.

The Hurricane Watches are supposed to go up 36 hours BEFORE Tropical Storm force winds reach the coast... it gives you 36 hours to prepare(can't exactly do it in 40-50 mph winds). That's why there is such a gap. TS force winds probably did reach the coast 36-42 hours later.