Trends and other notes on the 12Z model runs...

[clfenwi]

...In an attempt to keep down clutter, I am starting this thread to be home to discussion on all of the 12 Z model runs. I am watching the GFS come out now and will post again with some notes on how it is trending, etc. Everyone, feel free to post your observations on this model as well as NOGAPS, UKMET, Canadian, European, etc.

[Canelaw99]

*tapping fingers anxiously waiting the models *

[ericinmia]

NOGAPS is running right now, the initialiation window is out for it already. This should be an interesting run, it shows the ridge erroded to a tiny tongue over south fl. But, that Dennis is still in the easterlies.
-Eric

[x-y-no]

GFS is out to 66 hours -very consistant with previous runs.

Skirting the NE coast of Jamaica in 24-30 hours.

Crossing western Cuba at 54 hours - 66 hours.

[clfenwi]

GFS trend 00Z to 12Z

With regards to Dennis, virtually identical through 54 hours.
At 60 hours it starts shifting every so slightly west from its 00Z run.
At 72 hours there is a noticable difference when a side-side comparision is done.

120 hours



Maybe a slight bit west of the 00Z run, but really, from a practical standpoint, no difference, I think.

[ericinmia]

The NOGAPS is out to 36 hours and it appears south and west and and a little slower.

It shows Dennis more organized south east of Jamaica at 36 hours.
-Eric

EDIT:

48hours now shows a very strong hurricane west-north-west of Jamaica.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=048

[Dean4Storms]

12z UKMET now takes him to New Orleans. This lines up with the GFS now.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[x-y-no]

GFS trend 00Z to 12Z

With regards to Dennis, virtually identical through 54 hours.
At 60 hours it starts shifting every so slightly west from its 00Z run.
At 72 hours there is a noticable difference when a side-side comparision is done.

Yes, significantly left of the 0Z run once he's in the Gulf.

Not looking so good for Louisiana right now.

[gkrangers]

84 hours...12Z GFS is a good bit west of the 06Z position.

[Stratosphere747]

Which one does a better job of forecasting Highs?

[gkrangers]

12z GFS is due south of the MS River Delta at 102 hours. Maybe 200-300 miles.

[Air Force Met]

84 hours...12Z GFS is a good bit west of the 06Z position.

The troughing is less and the ridge is a little bit stronger.

[tw861]

84 hours...12Z GFS is a good bit west of the 06Z position.

The troughing is less and the ridge is a little bit stronger.

Yea, it looks like a pretty decent ridge north of the cyclone in this run. Looks to be headed for a central to southwest Louisiana landfall so far. Ortt might be on to something with his forecast.

[HurryKane]

12z GFS is due south of the MS River Delta at 102 hours. Maybe 200-300 miles.

*wets pants*

[Stratosphere747]

84 hours...12Z GFS is a good bit west of the 06Z position.

The troughing is less and the ridge is a little bit stronger.

Not that we should not be keeping an eye on Dennis AFM, but any reason for us to be taking more of a concern on em?

[gkrangers]

114-120 hours, Dennis makes landfall a bit SSW/SW of New Orleans.

New Orleans would be in the RFQ.

[ericinmia]

Comparing The NOGAPS 12z and 00z from last night.

96 hours last night in the 00z is where the storm is now in the 12z at 84 hours.
It also depicts the ridge stronger thant the previous run.
-Eric

[tw861]

Looks like around Morgan City in about 120 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

[x-y-no]

GFS 120 hours - landfall central Louisiana coast. Maybe a degree west of the 0Z run landfall.

[Air Force Met]

84 hours...12Z GFS is a good bit west of the 06Z position.

The troughing is less and the ridge is a little bit stronger.

Not that we should not be keeping an eye on Dennis AFM, but any reason for us to be taking more of a concern on em?

I think iti s a LA storm...we should always watch...but the ridging is setting up fairly far north for it to get this far west. Watch the model runs. If the ridging begins to move south out of the northern plains and WI/IL into southern IL/MO...then we need to pay more attention.