THE OFFICIAL DENNIS LANDFALL PREDICTION THREAD

[ROCK]

I wonder though if it's more fearcasting than wishcasting in the case of a potential bomb like Dennis. I.e. pessimists will always assume the worst (like I do).

I dunno...It's just i've noticed alot of Texas residents sticking to the their words saying they expect a landfall somehwere in Texas or near Texas...I just don't see how that can be scientifically proven very likely at all....Now I realize i'm a Floridian and i'm predicting a landfall possible in the Panhandle of Florida...but if i'm not mistaken wont the high pressure in the Atlantic guide it towards that general area, and won't Cindy likely leave behind..what's it called, a sub-tropical ridge, plus the cold front pushing down from the center of the country...won't it all contribute into most likely pushing the storm into the Central North or Central-East gulfcoast, and protect the Texas coast or anything much farther west than New Orleans??

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

will the ridge build back in time?? Will it miss the weakness?? and what cold front???will California slip off into the ocean?? and will pigs fly?? I think is pretty scientifically proven that you and everyone else here INCLUDING ME has no idea or maybe a hazy idea where its going. This has nothing to do about Texas. edited for content....

[Rainband]

Please edit your post and spell his name right and word it a bit different. It's gonna be a long season ..watch the rudeness please

[fci]

I wonder though if it's more fearcasting than wishcasting in the case of a potential bomb like Dennis. I.e. pessimists will always assume the worst (like I do).

I dunno...It's just i've noticed alot of Texas residents sticking to the their words saying they expect a landfall somehwere in Texas or near Texas...I just don't see how that can be scientifically proven very likely at all....Now I realize i'm a Floridian and i'm predicting a landfall possible in the Panhandle of Florida...but if i'm not mistaken wont the high pressure in the Atlantic guide it towards that general area, and won't Cindy likely leave behind..what's it called, a sub-tropical ridge, plus the cold front pushing down from the center of the country...won't it all contribute into most likely pushing the storm into the Central North or Central-East gulfcoast, and protect the Texas coast or anything much farther west than New Orleans??

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

will the ridge build back in time?? Will it miss the weakness?? and what cold front???will California slip off into the ocean?? and will pigs fly?? I think is pretty scientifically proven that you and everyone else here INCLUDING ME has no idea or maybe a hazy idea where its going. This has nothing to do about Texas. edited for content....

You'll find quite often that people DO prediect these well; just based on prior experience and common sense.
Some model suggestions are so obviously incorrect and many times storms seem to follow "tried and true" pathes.
A lot of people "wish-cast" storms to their vicinity; not because they WANT to go through it but for the "thrill" of the chase as it approaches and the activities that an approaching storm spawns.
So, you many be looking at it sarcastically but you will be surprised how many folks are correct in their predictions!

[tropicsgal05]

I wouldn't guess right now as to where Dennis is going, i remember Opal in 1995 and how she was going to Louisiana and took a NE turn into the Fla. Panhandle but i will say my thoughts are with whomever is in the path of this storm. Stay safe everyone.

[Hurricanehink]

Biloxi, 105 M.P.H. Monday night.

[drezee]

Bay St. Louis 125mph Weakening on the way in...

[rainstorm]

no changes needed at all. galveston to no


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... hour=144hr

[jasons2k]

Port Lavaca to Sabine Pass, moving NW.

[BroncoChuck]

I know its still 5 days out but all the models I keep seeing show it coming right for my house again. Cat 1 or 2 would be ok but if we get anything over a 2 or 3 will be the end to this area.

Only good thing would be to wash all the remaining debris off off Pcola Beach into the sound. There are still tons of homes and business damaged. Hell Im still waiting for my ins company to complete roof work on my house. Nothing major but still waiting.

I USE to live about 1/4 of a mile from the sound prior to Ivan and had trees and 4 feet of water in my house from surge. Im now about 5 blocks further inland from that house but up on a little rise so should be good to go.....

Just one of those wait and see kinda moments. No need freaking out like the rest of the popluation with at least 3-4 days to plan.....

[furluvcats]

I'll say extreme FL panhandle...

[GalvestonDuck]

I'll say extreme FL panhandle...

*snicker* Well, here's one for sure that no one can accuse of -removed-.

[furluvcats]

LOL...you got THAT right Duckie...just trying to jump in and play with the folks around here :O)

[jrod]

I am going to stick with the Tampa area even though it seems less likely now than it did yesterday.

If he doesnt make a significant turn north in the next day or so Ill probaly go with NO. So everyone from LA to Tampa needs to watch out.

***Not an official forecast, just this posters opinion on the storm***

[Normandy]

Hmmm....little change, but...

1st landfall - Sidestep of Jamaica (IE Ivan, Charley)

2nd Landfall - Direct hit of Grand Cayman

3rd Landfall - Direct strike on the western tip of Cuba and Isle of Youth

4th and Final Landfall - new Iberia LA (just to pinpoint a location, a broad area of the Central and NW gulf coast is at risk imo).

[lacyclone]

I'll hazard a guess that Dennis heads right back toward N.O/Biloxi.....unfortunately. I imagine it would be too much for me to ask If I hoped it would get into the gulf and spin itself out.

[T'Bonz]

If I had to make an uneducated guess, I'd say Pensacola.

[Johnny]

Normandy, those are my thoughts exactly.

[Wpwxguy]

Well, its a little early but I'll give it a go. Morgan City, LA to Mobile, AL . However, tomorrow morning after I've finished pouring over all the info I may alter that forecast. Intensity? 130 mph

[Nimbus]

Somewhere along the north gulf coast between 85w and 90w.
Dennis looks like he is starting to wind up and slow down this afternoon.
Several days to make the french recurve.

[Rainband]

This is not an official forecast and represents the opinion of this poster and may or may not be backed by scientific data. For official Information, please refer to the National Hurricane Center or your Local Officials.


After watching the Models and especially the latest runs of the "spaghetti Models" . I am ready to make my call. I think the peninsula will continue to look better and better in the coming hours if this trend continues. I also think if this trend continues the panhandle will be spared as well. I hope so for their sakes. My call for landfall is SW LA to SE Texas possibly as a Cat4 Hurricane.