I dont understand

[stormandan28]

I live in Sarasota Florida and the models are shifting east likre Gfdl, cmc but now everybody says the gfs is a good model or the ukmet,this is going to be a storm for either north Florida or west coast of Florida nIm not wanting it my any means but it seems everybody jumps on every model change.

[tallbunch]

The models change every 3 hours. No one knows at this point.

[TPACane04]

I went throught this whole model thing yesterday in a post...we need to wait to the 48-72 window of potential landfall (ie late Thursday into Friday) before we start wigging out on every flippin model run.

I enjoy seeing the model updates just like the next person, but whole long threads bickering back and forth? jeez....

Even the models on Charley the morning of Aug 13 last year were flipping around...some showed landfall in Big Bend area, some showed Tampa. None were correct!

I say let Dennis get his act together better and get past Jamaica, and see what we have. My gut tells me Central GC back to NO area, but I will believe more when/if Gulfstream jet goes out to sample the Florida ridge and sees just how long it is going to stay strong.

[Comanche]

I must say i put alot of faith in Bastardi's long range pattern recognition and am going to have to stick with his thoughts from this far out for a louisiana coastal strike. I watched the NHC fail with almost every storm last season trying to turn it north to early. The man may be a nut but his long range work is spot on the majority of the time.

[Wthrman13]

Models past 3 days are good for general trends, and even then only in well established steering flow. In cases where large scale pattern changes are occurring, model performance for hurricane tracks can tank. In cases where a nearly steady, high amplitude pattern is in place, model track predictions even out to 5 days can sometimes be uncannily good (Isabel in 2003 is a good example of this).

Folks need to understand the strengths and limitations of models. Once you get past the 3-5 day time period, you have to stop focusing on the exact track of the TC that the model is predicting, and instead look at general trends. Watch the evolution of the mid and upper-level flow in the model to get a better idea of which scenarios are most likely. In 25 years, when our model predictions at the 5-7 day time frame are as good as our current 2-3 day predictions (just a rough guess at the improvement we will see by then), I'm sure we will have people getting worked up about 200 mile track shifts in the 11 day forecast .

[BonesXL]

Wthrman13, Thanks for the great answer.

[Comanche]

by the way, as far as bastardi goes, i almost cancelled my subscription last year when he said ivan would move into the atlantic somewhere near new jersey and then move along the coast south, cross florida, move west into the gulf and re-generate into a storm and make another landfall.

all i could think of was how rich the crack dealers in state college must be.

[jasons2k]

I still can't figure out why everyone says the man is crazy. We all have our misses, even NHC has their fair share. But for the most part Joe B. is great at calling things well ahead of the NHC. Ivan is a GREAT example. People thought he was crazy when he said Jeanne (I think it was Jeanne) would do a loop east of Florida then turn west and hit. He nailed Charley and the east turn well before NHC. He nailed Lili and its weakoning as it came in. He nailed Isidore when the frictional effects on the Yucatan pulled it SW and tore it up. The list goes on an on. I think overall he does a good job and he's onto something here with Dennis.

The same people now who think he's crazy saying Dennis near Denver next week (remnants) will be the same people scratching their heads wondering why Dennis didn't hit Pensacola again.

[loon]

I still can't figure out why everyone says the man is crazy. We all have our misses, even NHC has their fair share. But for the most part Joe B. is great at calling things well ahead of the NHC. Ivan is a GREAT example. People thought he was crazy when he said Jeanne (I think it was Jeanne) would do a loop east of Florida then turn west and hit. He nailed Charley and the east turn well before NHC. He nailed Lili and its weakoning as it came in. He nailed Isidore when the frictional effects on the Yucatan pulled it SW and tore it up. The list goes on an on. I think overall he does a good job and he's onto something here with Dennis.

The same people now who think he's crazy saying Dennis near Denver next week (remnants) will be the same people scratching their heads wondering why Dennis didn't hit Pensacola again.

dang, he said Dennis (remnants) will make it to Denver? Hrm...so, let me plot that out...ummm...well, lets see....niceeeeee....I just booked a flight from Jamaica to Denver via Dennis airlines with a short stop in Houston...

hehehehe



What is JB's thoughts on this, I believe I know, as rainstorm (I think) usually goes with what he says, but if somebody knows, let us know...ya know...

cheers,
loon

[Comanche]

i am not bashing the guy, rather i am giving the guy a medal for his off the wall calls that more times than not hit the bullseye and like you said have everyone else scratching their heads

i am a firm believer in his ability