Recon Reports Dennis

[feederband]

Looks good on vis....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A flight level wind of 58 knots over the northern quad??? That supports around 48 knots at the surface or around 60 mph. Once again they found that this storm was not as strong as we thought.

[rtd2]

Maybe this Explains why CBS news has reported its now a CANE 1
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=300

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 05
Time: 1855Z
Latitude: 14.4°N
Longitude: 73.2°W
Location: 251 mi WNW of Oranjestad, Aruba
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: WNW (290°) @ 28 mph
Temperature: 46°F
Dewpoint: 46°F
Weather: Rain
700mb height: 10200 feet
Surface Wind: W (290°) @ 29 mph
Remarks: None

[ALhurricane]

Matt... I would on for a few before stating that. They just got into the storm. They have more passes to make and have not sampled the whole storm. With a pressure of 989, we are probably pretty close to hurricane status, but we shall wait and see what else recon finds.

[Normandy]

Any samples from the eastern quad??

[senorpepr]

Inbound Ob #1: 17.2°N 071.1°W; 700mb height: 10300 feet; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: ESE (120°) @ 40 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 17.1°N 071.3°W; 700mb height: 10300 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: ESE (120°) @ 48 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 16.9°N 071.5°W; 700mb height: 10300 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: ESE (110°) @ 52 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 16.7°N 071.7°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: E (100°) @ 55 mph
Inbound Ob #5: 16.4°N 071.7°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: ESE (110°) @ 50 mph
Inbound Ob #6: 16.2°N 071.9°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: E (90°) @ 55 mph
Inbound Ob #7: 15.9°N 071.9°W; 700mb height: 10000 feet; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: E (90°) @ 45 mph
Max flight level wind (Inbound): 67 mph at 16.0°N 071.9°W
First inbound ob surface wind: NA

Outbound Ob #1: 15.6°N 072.0°W; 700mb height: 9900 feet; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Flt level wind: W (280°) @ 22 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 15.4°N 072.2°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: NW (320°) @ 41 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 15.2°N 072.4°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: NW (310°) @ 37 mph
Outbound Ob #4: 15.0°N 072.6°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: NW (320°) @ 33 mph
Outbound Ob #5: 14.8°N 072.8°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: WNW (290°) @ 29 mph
Outbound Ob #6: 14.6°N 073.0°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: WNW (300°) @ 28 mph
Outbound Ob #7: 14.5°N 073.2°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 43°F; Flt level wind: WNW (290°) @ 25 mph
Max flight level wind (Outbound): 52 mph at 15.6°N 071.7°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: W (290°) @ 29 mph
Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 06

[loon]

hrm, just a quick in and out I guess...is another one scheduled for today/tonight?

[senorpepr]

hrm, just a quick in and out I guess...is another one scheduled for today/tonight?

This mission will continue for several more hours. Expect a few more VORTEX messages...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

That may have been a quick in and out on Dennis but wasn't this a mission to sample the atmosphere around Dennis? -like the strength of the ridge? -or is that a later NOAA "recon" flight scheduled?

[loon]

hrm, just a quick in and out I guess...is another one scheduled for today/tonight?

This mission will continue for several more hours. Expect a few more VORTEX messages...

Ah, sweet...thanks for always posting these SP....

[clfenwi]

That may have been a quick in and out on Dennis but wasn't this a mission to sample the atmosphere around Dennis? -like the strength of the ridge? -or is that a later NOAA "recon" flight scheduled?

The Gulfstream IV mission (the upper level flight that you are referring to) is a later flight...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I think that is the key flight to watch for! The data they collect will help the models nail this thing down a whole lot more.

[senorpepr]

Yes, this mission is a standard fix flight. Later tonight a synoptic flight will provide the models an insight to what the atmosphere is like.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Senorpepr, do you think that the incoming data overnight will contribute to any radical shifts in the modeling? -or do you think the models have a pretty good grip of the synoptic pattern playing out?

[loon]

did they give another fix of center yet?

[senorpepr]

Senorpepr, do you think that the incoming data overnight will contribute to any radical shifts in the modeling? -or do you think the models have a pretty good grip of the synoptic pattern playing out?

There may be some shifts to the pattern, but I don't believe it will be anything radical.

[senorpepr]

did they give another fix of center yet?

Not yet. The just fixed the center 45 minutes ago. They are still in the process on making another drive into the center.

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 07
Time: 1931Z
Position: 15.7 N 71.9 W
Sea Level Pressure: 989 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 14 knots / 225
925 millibar height: 594 meters
925 millibar winds: 10 knots / 230
850 millibar height: 1333 m
850 millibar winds: 7 knots / 220

Eye dropsonde

[Stratosphere747]

I'm assuming they think that pos is the center still....Same as the 2pm advisory?