Model Lesson From Melbourne NWS

[jlauderdal]

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE INHERENT ERRORS THAT OCCUR THIS FAR
OUT IN FORECASTING TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX. HOWEVER...
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE EXHIBITING A LARGE AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY WITH
ONE PERTURBATION SUGGESTING A TRACK AS FAR EAST AS THE BAHAMAS.
REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION.

[loon]

Heh, -removed- has made it to the weather offices..much like here, we pick and chose which models aim our direction, and now they have jumped on the bandwagon....of course the other models that point towards them were not mentioned, heh, or anything about the "trends"....lol, this is getting good...

[Rainband]

well now thats interesting

[BonesXL]

Very well put....By the way, this is my Hundred Posting I finally graduated to Tropical Low...Hurrah

[ericinmia]

Well the GFS you see, is a Consensus of the many runs.

Here is a link that gets them later, but it gets them.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... index.html
-Eric

EDIT:
Remeber this link doesn't have the most up to date ones, ie. the runs for this storm now, are the 00z run.

[tracyswfla]

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE INHERENT ERRORS THAT OCCUR THIS FAR
OUT IN FORECASTING TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX. HOWEVER...
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE EXHIBITING A LARGE AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY WITH
ONE PERTURBATION SUGGESTING A TRACK AS FAR EAST AS THE BAHAMAS.
REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION.

Very interesting.

[jlauderdal]

Heh, -removed- has made it to the weather offices..much like here, we pick and chose which models aim our direction, and now they have jumped on the bandwagon....of course the other models that point towards them were not mentioned, heh, or anything about the "trends"....lol, this is getting good...

they aren't -removed- they are stating the facts and the gfs is a key model the local offices use and they are making a point about errors this far out. i think what they said is reasonable, i'm sure they don't think bahamas is the final destination but they are making a point and it is valid.

[vbhoutex]

Heh, -removed- has made it to the weather offices..much like here, we pick and chose which models aim our direction, and now they have jumped on the bandwagon....of course the other models that point towards them were not mentioned, heh, or anything about the "trends"....lol, this is getting good...

IMO, that statement was uncalled for.

FYI, the NWS employee that probably wrote that is a member here and does read these boards. Maybe we need to think before we post?

[loon]

Heh, -removed- has made it to the weather offices..much like here, we pick and chose which models aim our direction, and now they have jumped on the bandwagon....of course the other models that point towards them were not mentioned, heh, or anything about the "trends"....lol, this is getting good...

they aren't -removed- they are stating the facts and the gfs is a key model the local offices use and they are making a point about errors this far out. i think what they said is reasonable, i'm sure they don't think bahamas is the final destination but they are making a point and it is valid.

Well, if you had said they were being cautious, to keep folks on their toes, then I would have said "okay". But to point out one model out of the spagetti bowl without making any noise about any other models, simply screams wishcast, but, alas, I won't argue, I was just making a point....the big ones get everyone in a tussle, including the pros..

[Wthrman13]

Well the GFS you see, is a Consensus of the many runs.

Here is a link that gets them later, but it gets them.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... index.html
-Eric

EDIT:
Remeber this link doesn't have the most up to date ones, ie. the runs for this storm now, are the 00z run.

The operational GFS you see is not a consensus, it is an explicit, deterministic forecast. The GFS ensembles are formed by perturbing the initial conditions of the operational GFS in a way that attempts to mimic the inherent uncertainty in our ability to determine the initial conditions (i.e. the temperature field may be perturbed to reflect the uncertainty in our temperature measurements from weather stations, which could be on the order of a few degrees). A bunch of these forecasts (called the ensemble members) are then run from different perturbed initial conditions to give forecasters an idea of how small changes in the IC can affect the subsequent forecast in a given situation. Sometimes the amount of spread is disturbing, proving that getting the initial conditions right is downright critical to a good forecast, particularly after 3 days or so. There is an "ensemble mean" which is an average of all the ensemble members, but the operational GFS you see is not the ensemble mean, but the single forecast run from the "base" GFS analysis.

[loon]

Heh, -removed- has made it to the weather offices..much like here, we pick and chose which models aim our direction, and now they have jumped on the bandwagon....of course the other models that point towards them were not mentioned, heh, or anything about the "trends"....lol, this is getting good...

IMO, that statement was uncalled for.

FYI, the NWS employee that probably wrote that is a member here and does read these boards. Maybe we need to think before we post?

Well, I mean no harm, and I understand if my posts get deleted, but it was just my opinion and my "thoughts" on the state of everyone involved when a possible "big one" comes knocking on the door. If it seems out of line, I am sorry, and respect the fact that my posts get deleted.

[jlauderdal]

Heh, -removed- has made it to the weather offices..much like here, we pick and chose which models aim our direction, and now they have jumped on the bandwagon....of course the other models that point towards them were not mentioned, heh, or anything about the "trends"....lol, this is getting good...

IMO, that statement was uncalled for.

FYI, the NWS employee that probably wrote that is a member here and does read these boards. Maybe we need to think before we post?

t.c did the short term and someone else did the long term but i am sure t.c reviewed it so you are correct.

[AJC3]

Heh, -removed- has made it to the weather offices..much like here, we pick and chose which models aim our direction, and now they have jumped on the bandwagon....of course the other models that point towards them were not mentioned, heh, or anything about the "trends"....lol, this is getting good...

While that may seem the case from the verbiage of our AFD, believe me when I say noone in our office is wishing this thing anywhere near our CWA, 'specially after last season. We had two co-workers that were displaced for quite a while after Frances and Jeanne, and just about everyone in our office had some sort of property or landscape damage.

FYI, the NWS employee that probably wrote that is a member here and does read these boards. Maybe we need to think before we post?

Yep, he still does. Maybe he'll even get around to posting some more in the near future if he gets the time and inclination.

Well, I mean no harm, and I understand if my posts get deleted, but it was just my opinion and my "thoughts" on the state of everyone involved when a possible "big one" comes knocking on the door. If it seems out of line, I am sorry, and respect the fact that my posts get deleted.

Hey, no harm, no foul. And no offense taken. BTW...Matt (who wrote the long term section) and I already have a personal side bet going on Dennis' landfall location. Exactly what the wager is...neither one of us has said.

I won't say where exactly on the gulf coast we predicted - but I will say this:

1) I'm farther west than he is.

2) Neither of us went farther west than where Cindy made landfall.

Who knows, maybe I'll make him buy me a six if I win.

cheers,
Tony

[Jevo]

FYI, the NWS employee that probably wrote that is a member here and does read these boards. Maybe we need to think before we post?

Yep, he still does. Maybe he'll even get around to posting some more in the near future if he gets the time and inclination.

Well, I mean no harm, and I understand if my posts get deleted, but it was just my opinion and my "thoughts" on the state of everyone involved when a possible "big one" comes knocking on the door. If it seems out of line, I am sorry, and respect the fact that my posts get deleted.

Hey, no harm, no foul. And no offense taken. BTW...Matt (who wrote the long term section) and I already have a personal side bet going on Dennis' landfall location. Exactly what the wager is...neither one of us has said.

I won't say where exactly on the gulf coast we predicted - but I will say this:

1) I'm farther west than he is.

2) Neither of us went farther west than where Cindy made landfall.

Who knows, maybe I'll make him buy me a six if I win.

cheers,
Tony

Bet the midnight shift during Ferbuary

[WeatherNole]

Hey, no harm, no foul. And no offense taken. BTW...Matt (who wrote the long term section) and I already have a personal side bet going on Dennis' landfall location. Exactly what the wager is...neither one of us has said.

I won't say where exactly on the gulf coast we predicted - but I will say this:

1) I'm farther west than he is.

2) Neither of us went farther west than where Cindy made landfall.

Who knows, maybe I'll make him buy me a six if I win.

cheers,
Tony

Greetings from Tallahassee tvland. Please pass along an "old classmate Hello" to John P. from Mike M.

Also, I'm sure that Ray Hawthorne - even he's a slacker and not working today, would also send a hello your way.

Hopefully Dennis will stay west and let me be a slacker this weekend.

Mike

--

[Wthrman13]

Hey Tony, good to see you around the boards. I was thinking of you while weathering Frances last year with the DOW's. I understand your office used some of our observations during the landfall period.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I wouldn't call it -removed-. Jackson and Tallahassee mentioned the possibility of Cindy moving more north and east of the official NHC projection. Turns out they were 100% correct.

I doubt there are many people I disagree with working for the NWS.