Dennis taking a jog more to NW.........

[Dean4Storms]

Also this Visible clearly shows some north to south shear taking place over Dennis.

Click link, click upper left visible floater and remove the early frames and slow the animation. You will clearly see the center jogging more NW and the light shear.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... pical.html

[HouTXmetro]

Very evident

[chris_fit]

Yup, NW it is.

[Ivanhater]

yep i was gonna post that

[jlauderdal]

Also this Visible clearly shows some north to south shear taking place over Dennis.

Click link, click upper left visible floater and remove the early frames and slow the animation. You will clearly see the center jogging more NW and the light shear.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... pical.html

hurricanes jog this way and that way....it will move due west in a few hours and we will have a wnw movement again...there is no reason to think there is an overall course change.

[dwg71]

Also this Visible clearly shows some north to south shear taking place over Dennis.

Click link, click upper left visible floater and remove the early frames and slow the animation. You will clearly see the center jogging more NW and the light shear.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... pical.html

hurricanes jog this way and that way....it will move due west in a few hours and we will have a wnw movement again...there is no reason to think there is an overall course change.

No, but the overall course (NHC track) is verifying..

[feederband]

nw and starting to look a bit more Hurricanish..

[Tommedic]

If Dennis is at Huuricane level then jogs are very common. The trouble is that we won't know for sure if it is a jog until it changes direction again.

[jlauderdal]

Also this Visible clearly shows some north to south shear taking place over Dennis.

Click link, click upper left visible floater and remove the early frames and slow the animation. You will clearly see the center jogging more NW and the light shear.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... pical.html

hurricanes jog this way and that way....it will move due west in a few hours and we will have a wnw movement again...there is no reason to think there is an overall course change.

No, but the overall course (NHC track) is verifying..

you are right, the course is verifying which means if we have NW now we will see west later to keep on their overall course..also we are going through an intensification stage so what we are seeing is not unusual and is expected.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like a surge of convection on the north side gives the illusion that it is take a northerly turn..

Heading for Jamaica though..

[Weatherboy1]

it's just a jog, in my opinion. Which means that here in SE FL, there's not much for me to worry about but a little rain and some breeze. The ONLY thing that would concern me is if (for some reason) Cindy slows and/or stalls in the SE. That happened with a storm last year or the year before off the east coast. I forget which one, but one system stalled off of GA/SC, which allowed another approaching FL from the SW Atlantic to get pulled north toward NC.

-Mike

[jrod]

I like to look at about 6 hours of satellite frames before feeling confident on the direction. There is just too much woobling and dynamic stuff happeing to get an accurate estimate on direction IMHO.

It does look the center has woobled a little northwest.

[Dean4Storms]

Also this Visible clearly shows some north to south shear taking place over Dennis.

Click link, click upper left visible floater and remove the early frames and slow the animation. You will clearly see the center jogging more NW and the light shear.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... pical.html

hurricanes jog this way and that way....it will move due west in a few hours and we will have a wnw movement again...there is no reason to think there is an overall course change.

I didn't say anything about an overall course change. Anytime you have a deepening TC it wobbles as it bumps against a ridge. We map equal lines of pressure, but they don't exist as a smooth line. Regardless, any jog long enough in any direction can change the future location by hundreds of miles of a TC when forecasting out beyond 3 days. The possibility of a long jog is the reason why I pointed this out, we will have to watch it and see if it continues. Being that this is a Tropical Weather board I thought most would want to watch this to see if it is a small jog or a long trend.

[deltadog03]

not really...NHC is north of jamica...not gonna make it...dont get a fix on the sat...i think someone told me that...look at the coordinates...in 2 runs through it...i think it moves .1 north and like .8 west...not very NW too me...

[caneman]

According to lates recon fix it is .1N and .2W. Could be the move. We'll see.

[dwg71]

its heading at about 305 now, that could change but thats pretty close now...

[ericinmia]

This is what i think is happening...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

and

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml














Comon' people... I know this can be a tense time, and we all marvel at these storms, but lets show some respect and restraint.
Also for those that didn't get it, that forecast above is udderly sarcastic. But, it goes to show that nothing should be completely discounted. This is still a science we cannot fully grasp.
-Eric

[skysummit]

It's either turned more NW, or that's one nice blow up of energy that's getting ready to wrap around. Look just to the SW of that blow up. There's a darker area. Is that the beginning of an eye?

[Stratosphere747]

This is what i think is happening...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

and

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml














Comon' people... I know this can be a tense time, and we all marvel at these storms, but lets show some respect and restraint.
Also for those that didn't get it, that forecast above is udderly sarcastic. But, it goes to show that nothing should be completely discounted. This is still a science we cannot fully grasp.
-Eric

LOL...Went to the link, and thought "this guy is nuts" then read your statement...

Scott

[jlauderdal]

Also this Visible clearly shows some north to south shear taking place over Dennis.

Click link, click upper left visible floater and remove the early frames and slow the animation. You will clearly see the center jogging more NW and the light shear.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... pical.html

hurricanes jog this way and that way....it will move due west in a few hours and we will have a wnw movement again...there is no reason to think there is an overall course change.

I didn't say anything about an overall course change. Anytime you have a deepening TC it wobbles as it bumps against a ridge. We map equal lines of pressure, but they don't exist as a smooth line. Regardless, any jog long enough in any direction can change the future location by hundreds of miles of a TC when forecasting out beyond 3 days. The possibility of a long jog is the reason why I pointed this out, we will have to watch it and see if it continues. Being that this is a Tropical Weather board I thought most would want to watch this to see if it is a small jog or a long trend.

If it busts through that ridge it will absolutely floor almost this entire board. I agre a degree of movement makes a huge difference down the raod..lets watch it and see what happens. Who knows, ericninmia just posted a couple links that show the absurd happening.