Recon Reports Dennis

#161 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:27 pm

folks...this thing is still almost moving due WEST not WNW...I don't understand why everyone is so hellbent on thinking the NHC track is right on...ITS NOT...from 2 flight passes through...it moved .1N and .8W...im not an idiot...thats not WNW or NW...sorry for the rant...i will calm down

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #162 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:28 pm

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 12
Time: 2015Z
Latitude: 17.1°N
Longitude: 73.4°W
Location: 126 mi SW of Port-au-Prince, Haiti
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: ENE (70°) @ 47 mph
Temperature: 46°F
Dewpoint: 46°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 10200 feet
Surface Wind: NE (40°) @ 46 mph
Remarks: None

artist · #163 Postby **artist** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:29 pm

rather than flame someone why not explain to them why the wind was low in that last obs? people are here to learn - not be jumped on. jmho

dwg71 · #164 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:29 pm

deltadog03 wrote:folks...this thing is still almost moving due WEST not WNW...I don't understand why everyone is so hellbent on thinking the NHC track is right on...ITS NOT...from 2 flight passes through...it moved .1N and .8W...im not an idiot...thats not WNW or NW...sorry for the rant...i will calm down

It is a least WNW and if not NW at current heading... NHC track is verifying... its ok, they know what they are doing..

SurvivedIvan · #165 Postby **SurvivedIvan** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:31 pm

My bad guys....I'm just nervous about Dennis b/c i really do not want to go through another Ivan. Not a very fun experience. I wasn't trying to call anyone an idiot. I apologize.

#166 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:32 pm

Ok guys let's calm down and let the information from recon flow into this thread as it is important to know what is going on with Dennis and chats like these distracts the purpose of this thread.

dwg71 · #167 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:32 pm

11:00 am coordinates 15.4N 71.5W, last recon 16.0 and 72.3 thats .6 to .8 and most of the north has been in the last 3 hours..

Its not heading W

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #168 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:33 pm

Inbound Ob #1: 14.7°N 071.1°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Flt level wind: S (190°) @ 46 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 14.9°N 071.3°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: S (190°) @ 39 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 15.1°N 071.5°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 37°F; Dewpt: 37°F; Flt level wind: S (190°) @ 45 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 15.2°N 071.6°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: SSW (210°) @ 51 mph
Inbound Ob #5: 15.4°N 071.8°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: SSW (210°) @ 48 mph
Inbound Ob #6: 15.6°N 072.0°W; 700mb height: 9900 feet; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Flt level wind: WSW (240°) @ 52 mph
Max flight level wind (Inbound): 61 mph at 15.5°N 071.9°W
First inbound ob surface wind: S (190°) @ 35 mph

Outbound Ob #1: 16.0°N 072.3°W; 700mb height: 9900 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 48 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 16.2°N 072.5°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 45°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 52 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 16.4°N 072.7°W; 700mb height: 10100 feet; Temp: 41°F; Dewpt: 41°F; Flt level wind: ENE (70°) @ 56 mph
Outbound Ob #4: 16.5°N 072.9°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: ENE (70°) @ 51 mph
Outbound Ob #5: 16.7°N 073.1°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 43°F; Dewpt: 43°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 44 mph
Outbound Ob #6: 16.9°N 073.2°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 47 mph
Outbound Ob #7: 17.1°N 073.4°W; 700mb height: 10200 feet; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Flt level wind: ENE (60°) @ 48 mph
Max flight level wind (Outbound): 62 mph at 16.1°N 072.4°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: NE (40°) @ 46 mph
Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 13

GalvestonDuck · #169 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:33 pm

SurvivedIvan wrote:My bad guys....I'm just nervous about Dennis b/c i really do not want to go through another Ivan. Not a very fun experience. I wasn't trying to call anyone an idiot. I apologize.

Offensive posts have moved out of the thread now.

SI -- I realize that you were actually calling the statement idiotic, not the poster. But in the heat of things, it could be considered inflammatory, given the fact that it was your first post (and can smell trollish to some). Furthermore, I can understand your nervousness...many of us are.

Apology accepted. Let's carry on.

margaritabeach · #170 Postby **margaritabeach** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:34 pm

deltadog03 wrote:folks...this thing is still almost moving due WEST not WNW...I don't understand why everyone is so hellbent on thinking the NHC track is right on...ITS NOT...from 2 flight passes through...it moved .1N and .8W...im not an idiot...thats not WNW or NW...sorry for the rant...i will calm down

'

I thought the first two fixes showed a .1n to .2W movement.

jax · #171 Postby **jax** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ok guys let's calm down and let the information from recon flow into this thread as it is important to know what is going on with Dennis and chats like these distracts the purpose of this thread.

makes the thread dense and hard to follow...

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #172 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:36 pm

well... the supp vortex shows 62 mph in the NE quad at flight level. It appears to me we still have a tropical storm.

SurvivedIvan · #173 Postby **SurvivedIvan** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:37 pm

Alright, cool.

#174 Postby **loon** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:37 pm

well, all we can do is feed him right and give him a little room, lil D will have a growth spurt...

#175 Postby **ALhurricane** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:38 pm

I agree senorpepr...

winds aren't quite there yet. however, given the continued pressure drop and convective burst over the center, it is only a matter of time before cane status is reached. i don't believe it will be at the 5pm edt advisory however.

Derek Ortt · #176 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:38 pm

yeah, and maybe only a 60-65 m.p.h. tropical storm at that

this does not represent weakening, just that the winds previously were much weaker (which probably should have been expected since background pressures in the Carib have been lower than normal this year)

#177 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:39 pm

i am not trying to jump down anyones throat...sorry about that...i agree there is some northward movement...i am just saying...NHC was wrong about it going north of jamica thats all...

#178 Postby **ALhurricane** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:40 pm

If I had to play "what will the NHC do?" I would guess they would keep at 70 mph. Although winds really support more of a 60-65 mph. I don't think they want to give the notion that it is weakening when it is actually slowly strengthening.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #179 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:40 pm

Agree senorpepr.

SurvivedIvan, I hate to say this but people built homes/business on the coast right on or around the path of hurricanes(Which has been here for milllions of years/Very important to the planet) It has been very quite for the past 50 years. We are now back into the normal hurricane pattern in the #$@# is hittng the fan. Over the next 10 years we will find that building in the path of hurricanes was a big mistake.

#180 Postby **loon** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:40 pm

deltadog03 wrote:i am not trying to jump down anyones throat...sorry about that...i agree there is some northward movement...i am just saying...NHC was wrong about it going north of jamica thats all...

Actually, you can't claim them wrong until he gets past Jamaica...

Recon Reports Dennis

ok..

Re: ok..

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