Dennis taking a jog more to NW.........

Comanche · #21 Postby **Comanche** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:37 pm

i am not sold that it has indeed changed course yet, i am thinking more along the lines of the interaction of Hispaniola has created a temporary interruption in the flow on the northern half and you are just seeing a start of a new convective burst that is going to wrap around what has been a consistent looking center of motion that has been moving somewhere around 280 at best all day. just an opinion and only time will tell.

#22 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:41 pm

Comanche wrote:i am not sold that it has indeed changed course yet, i am thinking more along the lines of the interaction of Hispaniola has created a temporary interruption in the flow on the northern half and you are just seeing a start of a new convective burst that is going to wrap around what has been a consistent looking center of motion that has been moving somewhere around 280 at best all day. just an opinion and only time will tell.

agreed with ya...280 at best

dwg71 · #23 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:44 pm

Look at the fixes 11:00AM 15.4 and 71.5 last recon 16.0 and 72.3 thats .6 to .8 = 305 or so, last 3 hours have been more like 315.

#24 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:44 pm

I think it is a slight jog NW but I don't foresee it continuing. I look for a more wnw motion over the next 6-8 hours. I think NHC has a pretty good handle right now as far as near term motion. I still think it will plow right over Jamaica or slightly south of. It is possible I may eat my words, but thats what I'm seeing.

#25 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:45 pm

We could be seeing a Stair Stepping, basically a battle between the deepening lower pressure and the ridge. Watch this loop and you clearly see that during the first half of the day Dennis was moving more westerly and the last few frames seems to turn more toward the NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Scorpion · #26 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:46 pm

Hopefully this keeps up. Jamaica would be spared under this condition, as would NO. Also, the mountains of Cuba would help rip him apart.

#27 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:50 pm

NOt much change in the track for 5 pm. Five day may be back a little west of what it was. Maybe Mobile or so,

#28 Postby **Steve** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:51 pm

Is this more triangulation? heh. heh. heh.

That stuff was pretty funny last night. I left it alone and let you guys battle it out over what was happening only helpfully adding the "if you're following Cindy on radar, you need to use this link" thread. Btw, curious by absence after the mention on the let's eat crow thread earlier. I thought you'd find it humorous.

Either way, what I see is a system gaining latitude like storms in the Caribbean usually do when heading W to WNW. That's the way they go. To date, I haven't even pretended to have a landfall call on this one except to say I never agree with models 5 days out. If they're clustering around New Orleans or SE LA, bet your bottom dollar the storm's going in near the AL/FL line or maybe in Texas.

Steve

#29 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:51 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

KatDaddy · #30 Postby **KatDaddy** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:51 pm

Hou-Gal AFD indicates the Upper TX Coast is still not out of the woods.

THE LATEST TPC COORDINATION CALL INDICATES TROPICAL STORM DENNIS
MAY MAKE LANDFALL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECASTS
INDICATED. THE 12Z GFS TAKES THE STORM INTO LOUISIANA BETWEEN LAKE
CHARLES AND NEW ORLEANS. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS STORM VERY
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS JUST IN CASE HE WANTS TO VISIT THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. 46

Website · #31 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:52 pm

Wpwxguy wrote:NOt much change in the track for 5 pm. Five day may be back a little west of what it was. Maybe Mobile or so,

Where Ivan hit. Gulf Shores area.

#32 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:06 pm

Brent wrote:
Wpwxguy wrote:NOt much change in the track for 5 pm. Five day may be back a little west of what it was. Maybe Mobile or so,

Where Ivan hit. Gulf Shores area.

Not good....they REALLY don't need this.

#33 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:07 pm

NHC won't change the heading because it is still a wnw movement, but it is more of a movement to the NW as of late from earlier today.

Steve, if you take a radar snapshot and overlay with Lat/Lon. grids and compare the movement by about 3 hours of snapshots you can clearly make out an overall heading of a center on radar. I indicated in that post of a movement by the center to a more NNE to NE movement. As it played out I was right, Cindy turned from a north heading when I posted west of 90w to move just over or ever so slightly east of Grand Isle, LA which is 90w, A NNE movement.

#34 Postby **Steve** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:15 pm

>>Steve, if you take a radar snapshot and overlay with Lat/Lon. grids and compare the movement by about 3 hours of snapshots you can clearly make out an overall heading of a center on radar. I indicated in that post of a movement by the center to a more NNE to NE movement. As it played out I was right, Cindy turned from a north heading when I posted west of 90w to move just over or ever so slightly east of Grand Isle, LA which is 90w, A NNE movement.

But that wasn't the center. It didn't have one on radar. The only thing offering somewhat of a hint of where the center was, was some banding where an elipse (sp?) was hedging north (FWIW, I had it at 05 or 10 degrees which is technically east of due north) and kinda got stationary there for a while despite the 6 hour motion reported as "NNE @ 12mph" which obviously didn't turn out to be accurate based on later close in radar at Fox 8. That hole thing was a dry slot (though someone suggested there was a disparity between the low center and mid-level center which I didn't necessarily agree with). The elipse or arc if that's the proper term, wasn't doing much of anything.

JMO.

Btw, I don't disagree with your post in this thread. I just had fun with the triangulation comment. If I wouldn't have been so busy at the time, I was going to hit you with a "We're going to Alabama! Then we're going to Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and North Carolina! AIEEEEEEEEEE"

Steve

Agua · #35 Postby **Agua** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:57 pm

Appears to have been a wobble. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Select "animation", set on a 10 frame loop, 100% image quality, and "High" zoom, then look at it. The last frame, 20:15z, brings it at about 290.

dwg71 · #36 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:17 pm

Agua wrote:Appears to have been a wobble. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Select "animation", set on a 10 frame loop, 100% image quality, and "High" zoom, then look at it. The last frame, 20:15z, brings it at about 290.

290??? its overall heading the last 6 or 8 hours has been at least 305.

Look at the trend

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#37 Postby **loon** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:20 pm

man o man I'll be glad when an eye pops, this bickering of 290 vs 305 is neverending, and I can't even decide for myself without recon plot points...looking at sat images anyway....

LilNoles2005 · #38 Postby **LilNoles2005** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:21 pm

looking at it, it still looks to be around 300...

cinlfla · #39 Postby **cinlfla** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:21 pm

What does 290 in terms of heading = and can someone explain heading degree's west=, east= ect. Thanks

LilNoles2005 · #40 Postby **LilNoles2005** » Wed Jul 06, 2005 5:28 pm

W = 270 degrees
WNW = 300
NW = 315
NNW = 330
N = 360
NNE = 030
NE = 045
ENE = 060
E = 090
ESE = 120
SE = 135
SSE = 150
S = 180
SSW = 210
SW = 225
WSW = 240

Dennis taking a jog more to NW.........

well..

unless my math is fuzzy..

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