Tropical Storm Dennis

[HouTXmetro]

OK - so here's a question because I"m trying to learn the way these things interact....

According to the latest water vapor, there's a loooonnnnggggg tail extending through the Gulf from Cindy. Won't that continue to move east as her remnants do? If so, what effect will that have on Dennis? Was this tail expected to drape that far through the Gulf?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Thanks!!!

I noticed the same thing.

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 062046
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...OUTER BANDS OF DENNIS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR ABOUT
315 MILES... 510 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT
340 MILES... 545 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 22
KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA EARLY
THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....AND
DENNIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE
AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING DENNIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...16.0 N... 72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

[Brent]

987 mb... it's only a matter of time.

[cycloneye]

FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
2100Z WED JUL 06 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
WESTWARD...AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 72.5W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 72.5W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 71.9W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 74.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.4N 76.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 81.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 27.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

[loon]

Well, I dunno about just recently, but over at 12 hr span, he is moving very much WNW

5AM 15.1N 70.3W
5PM 16.0N 72.5W

.9N 2.2W

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 062059
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

WHILE 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN ONLY 58 KT. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 55 KT...BUT THE RECENT PRESSURE
FALLS AND THE INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DENNIS COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY
SHORTLY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO...AND THEN SUSTAINING...MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.
IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTS 127 KT AND 931 MB
BY 48 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 100 KT IN 72
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING DENNIS A
MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS.

DENNIS IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN
ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 295/12. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT...OR WEST...AT DAYS THREE
THROUGH FIVE...TAKING DENNIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL RATHER THAN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATER PORTION OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...SINCE IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO
MAKE LARGE CHANGES TO THE TRACK FROM ONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO THE
NEXT. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY VERY WELL SHIFT BACK TO THE
EAST LATER...AND FURTHER OFFICIAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW THE MODEL TRENDS EVOLVE.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 16.0N 72.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.0N 74.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.4N 76.7W 80 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.4N 81.4W 100 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 84.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 27.5N 86.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 31.0N 88.0W 65 KT...INLAND




Interesting discussion.

[ericinmia]

That feels like the discusions for Frances and Jeanne.
-Eric

[Stratosphere747]

Here is where they have the center at the end of the forecast period..

http://www.terraserver.com/imagery/imag ... =370&t=pan

[wxwatcher91]

at 11am this morning I was really thinking Dennis would gain hurricane strength by the 2pm intermediate advisory... infrared shows a large area of strong convection however not very organized.
sustained wind speed has fallen however the pressure has fallen also. official forecast continues to indicate 100kt wind speeds within 48hours.

the NHC is really expecting some big-time strengthening once Dennis is in a low shear, high SST environment

[wxwatcher91]

Infrared shows Dennis very "open" on the west side. wonder when the convection will fan out.
tropical storm winds are mainly on the east side of the storm.

This thing really isnt lookin very organized... I really cant see it becominga major hurricane actually

[jasons2k]

at 11am this morning I was really thinking Dennis would gain hurricane strength by the 2pm intermediate advisory... infrared shows a large area of strong convection however not very organized.
sustained wind speed has fallen however the pressure has fallen also. official forecast continues to indicate 100kt wind speeds within 48hours.

the NHC is really expecting some big-time strengthening once Dennis is in a low shear, high SST environment

I think it's fairly common when a storm is in the "reorganizing" phase (as Dennis appears to be) there may be a drop-off in the wind, but as the pressure drops and the storm tightens again look for the winds to ramp-up. I would expect the winds to be up on the next flight and/or advisory.

[Weatherboy1]

Just out of curiosity, will Dennis' pretty decent slowdown have any impact on his ultimate track? More W? More E? No difference? Was this much of a deceleration (20 mph to 13 mph in one day) expected this early? I know a slowdown was expected, but I thought it wasn't supposed to happen until later (around W Cuba).

-Mike

[gkrangers]

Heck...remember Ivan that bombed to a Cat 3..then fell apart for a few hours when it was still east of the lesser antilles? It really looked horrible for some time as it reorganized and expelled some Saharan air I think.

I remember something along those lines.

[Rainband]

Speaking of pressure. Can anyone explain this. High pressure is supposed to be building in and strengthening right??

Updated: 5:46 PM EDT on July 06, 2005
Observed at Downtown Port Richey, Port Richey, Florida
This is a Personal Weather Station (History)
Weather condition observed at Brooksville.
Elevation: 8 ft / 2 m
89 °F / 31.7 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 95 °F / 35 °C
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 71 °F / 22 °C
Wind: 7 mph / 11.3 km/h Variable
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.94 in / 1013.8 hPa (Falling)
UV: 6 out of 16
Clouds (AGL): Clear -

Raw METAR AVIATION
Flight Rule: VFR (KBKV)
Wind Speed: 7 mph / 11.3 km/h
Wind Dir: 230° (SW)
Ceiling: Unlimited
Full Report | Pilot Maps


Local Radar
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Conditions Nearby
City Temp Conditions Updated
Brooksville 93 °F / 34 °C Clear

[wx247]

upper level high vs. surface pressure

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 062148
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
547 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...

SHORTLY BEFORE 527 PM EDT...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THEIR
OUTBOUND LEG...WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 71 KT.
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB WAS ALSO MEASURED. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...DENNIS IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AND A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM EDT.


FORECASTER STEWART

[seahawkjd]

Hurricane Dennis Intermediate Advisory Number 9a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on July 06, 2005


...Dennis continuing to become better organized to the
east-southeast of Jamaica...


a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica...the
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border
westward...and portions of eastern Cuba for The Provinces of
Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands and for
portions of central and eastern Cuba...for The Provinces of Sancti
Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...and Holguin.
A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for the Cayman Islands
later tonight.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the government of the Dominican Republic has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast of
the Dominican Republic. However...strong squalls will continue
tonight and may produce wind gusts to 40 mph.


Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 16.3 north... longitude 72.9 west or about 280
miles... 455 km... east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about
295 miles... 470 km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Bay Cuba.


Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
On this track...Dennis will pass over or just east of Jamaica by
Thursday afternoon.


Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Dennis a category 1 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 24 hours...and Dennis could become a category 2 hurricane
before it reaches Jamaica on Thursday.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.


The minimum central pressure recently measured by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 984 mb...29.06 inches.


Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over southern Hispaniola...Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and the
Cayman Islands. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible
over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...16.3 N... 72.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 984 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM EDT.


Forecaster Stewart

[ericinmia]

Now he's down to 13mph....
-Eric