official hurricane dennis - special update at 6pm edt
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000
WTNT64 KNHC 062148
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
547 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SHORTLY BEFORE 527 PM EDT...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THEIR
OUTBOUND LEG...WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 71 KT.
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB WAS ALSO MEASURED. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...DENNIS IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AND A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT64 KNHC 062148
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
547 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
TROPICAL STORM DENNIS HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SHORTLY BEFORE 527 PM EDT...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THEIR
OUTBOUND LEG...WHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 71 KT.
A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB WAS ALSO MEASURED. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...DENNIS IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AND A
SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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Brent
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Hurricane Dennis Special Advisory Number 9
Statement as of 6:00 PM EDT on July 06, 2005
...An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicates Dennis
has become a hurricane over the central Caribbean Sea...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica...the
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border
westward...and portions of eastern Cuba for The Provinces of
Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Dominican Republic
border.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands and for
portions of central and eastern Cuba...for The Provinces of Sancti
Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...and Holguin.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 6 PM EDT...2200z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 16.1 north... longitude 72.5 west or about 315
miles... 505 km... east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 335
miles... 540 km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph
...22 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours. On this track...Dennis will be centered near
Jamaica early Thursday.
Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph...
130 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Dennis a category one
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.
The minimum central pressure recently measured by a reconnaissance
aircraft is 985 mb...29.09 inches.
Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over southern Hispaniola...Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and the
Cayman Islands. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible
over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 6 PM EDT position...16.1 N... 72.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 985 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Statement as of 6:00 PM EDT on July 06, 2005
...An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicates Dennis
has become a hurricane over the central Caribbean Sea...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica...the
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border
westward...and portions of eastern Cuba for The Provinces of
Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Dominican Republic
border.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands and for
portions of central and eastern Cuba...for The Provinces of Sancti
Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...and Holguin.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 6 PM EDT...2200z...the center of Hurricane Dennis was located
near latitude 16.1 north... longitude 72.5 west or about 315
miles... 505 km... east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 335
miles... 540 km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph
...22 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours. On this track...Dennis will be centered near
Jamaica early Thursday.
Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph...
130 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Dennis a category one
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.
The minimum central pressure recently measured by a reconnaissance
aircraft is 985 mb...29.09 inches.
Dennis is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over southern Hispaniola...Jamaica...eastern Cuba...and the
Cayman Islands. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible
over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 6 PM EDT position...16.1 N... 72.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 985 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
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Brent
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- Contact:
Hurricane Dennis Special Forecast/Advisory Number 9
Statement as of 22:00Z on July 06, 2005
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Cuba has changed the
Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for portions of eastern
Cuba...for The Provinces of Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and
Guantanamo.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Jamaica...the
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border
westward...and portions of eastern Cuba for The Provinces of
Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Dominican Republic
border.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands and for
portions of central and eastern Cuba...for The Provinces of Sancti
Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...and Holguin.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.
Hurricane center located near 16.1n 72.5w at 06/2200z
position accurate within 30 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 12 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 985 mb
Max sustained winds 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.
64 kt....... 20ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
50 kt....... 40ne 30se 0sw 40nw.
34 kt....... 90ne 75se 25sw 75nw.
12 ft seas.. 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 16.1n 72.5w at 06/2200z
at 06/1800z center was located near 15.7n 71.9w
forecast valid 07/0600z 17.0n 74.3w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 15sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt...100ne 75se 25sw 75nw.
Forecast valid 07/1800z 18.4n 76.7w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 50sw 100nw.
Forecast valid 08/0600z 20.0n 79.1w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 100sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 08/1800z 21.4n 81.4w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 100sw 130nw.
Forecast valid 09/1800z 24.0n 84.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 100sw 140nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 10/1800z 27.5n 86.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
Outlook valid 11/1800z 31.0n 88.0w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 16.1n 72.5w
next advisory at 07/0300z
forecaster Stewart
Statement as of 22:00Z on July 06, 2005
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Cuba has changed the
Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for portions of eastern
Cuba...for The Provinces of Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and
Guantanamo.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Jamaica...the
southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic border
westward...and portions of eastern Cuba for The Provinces of
Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Dominican Republic
border.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands and for
portions of central and eastern Cuba...for The Provinces of Sancti
Spiritus...Ciego de Avila...Camaguey...Las Tunas...and Holguin.
Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of this system.
Hurricane center located near 16.1n 72.5w at 06/2200z
position accurate within 30 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 12 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 985 mb
Max sustained winds 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.
64 kt....... 20ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
50 kt....... 40ne 30se 0sw 40nw.
34 kt....... 90ne 75se 25sw 75nw.
12 ft seas.. 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 16.1n 72.5w at 06/2200z
at 06/1800z center was located near 15.7n 71.9w
forecast valid 07/0600z 17.0n 74.3w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 15sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt...100ne 75se 25sw 75nw.
Forecast valid 07/1800z 18.4n 76.7w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 40nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 50sw 100nw.
Forecast valid 08/0600z 20.0n 79.1w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 100sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 08/1800z 21.4n 81.4w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 100sw 130nw.
Forecast valid 09/1800z 24.0n 84.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 100sw 140nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 10/1800z 27.5n 86.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
Outlook valid 11/1800z 31.0n 88.0w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 16.1n 72.5w
next advisory at 07/0300z
forecaster Stewart
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#neversummer
****PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9****
000
WTNT74 KNHC 062156
SPFAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
WTNT74 KNHC 062156
SPFAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2005
Code: Select all
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.4N 76.7W 47 X X X 47 W PALM BEACH FL X X 2 8 10
20.0N 79.1W 3 29 X X 32 FT PIERCE FL X X 1 7 8
21.4N 81.4W X 11 13 1 25 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 6 6
MDCB 176N 714W 11 X X X 11 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 5 5
MTPP 186N 724W 10 X X X 10 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3
MTCA 183N 738W 53 X X X 53 KEY WEST FL X X 12 7 19
MKJP 179N 768W 45 X X X 45 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 4 11 15
MKJS 185N 779W 33 5 X X 38 FT MYERS FL X X 2 11 13
MWCG 193N 814W X 15 5 1 21 VENICE FL X X 1 12 13
MUGM 200N 751W 26 2 X X 28 TAMPA FL X X X 10 10
MUCM 214N 779W 1 25 X X 26 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 7 7
MUCF 221N 805W X 12 12 1 25 ST MARKS FL X X X 5 5
MUSN 216N 826W X 3 17 2 22 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 6 6
MUHA 230N 824W X 1 17 4 22 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 5 5
MUAN 219N 850W X X 8 9 17 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3
MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 7 8 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2
MYEG 235N 758W X 2 3 X 5 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2
MYAK 241N 776W X 3 6 2 11 BURAS LA X X X 2 2
MYNN 251N 775W X X 4 3 7 GULF 29N 85W X X X 8 8
MYGF 266N 787W X X 2 4 6 GULF 29N 87W X X X 7 7
MMMD 210N 897W X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5
MARATHON FL X X 12 6 18 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2
MIAMI FL X X 5 8 13COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
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