Derek Ortt - quoted (again) with Pensacola News

[PerfectStorm]

Go Derek!

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/app ... 1/50706010

Published - July, 6, 2005
Forecasters urge caution with Dennis

Sean Smith
@PensacolaNewsJournal.com

The Pensacola Bay Area stands in the path of another long-range forecast for a developing hurricane.

Near hurricane-strength, Tropical Storm Dennis was located about 255 miles south-southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti, and about 440 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph, the National Hurricane Center reported in its late morning advisory.

Dennis is forecast to become a Category 3 hurricane as it crosses Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico, with 116 mph sustained winds and gusts to nearly 140 mph, the center reported.

The long-range track puts the Pensacola Bay Area in the center of the strike zone, with a landfall of early Monday morning expected. But the Hurricane Center cautioned that this track comprises several models that show a wide range of tracks for the storm in the Gulf.

“At four and five days there is a lot of uncertainty in the track, but everyone along the Gulf Coast should monitor this storm,” said Chris Hennon, meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami. “It is very difficult to say at this point. We can’t put a high degree of confidence in any of these models.”

The Hurricane Center’s current forecast track closely coincides with Florida State University’s Superensemble computer model, which performed very well with track forecasts with Florida’s four hurricanes last year.

Dennis is causing a stir for many storm-weary residents.
But meteorologist Derek Ortt from the University of Miami advises residents to obtain information only from credible sources.

The National Hurricane Center issues the official hurricane forecasts that are acted on by federal, state and local emergency managers, and there are numerous established meteorologists agencies, Ortt said.

“There are a lot of bad sources and noncredible sources on the Internet,” Ortt said. “It’s too early to say where Dennis is going so far out.”