I am suprised of the left shift...

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#21 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:00 pm

Yeah Raindband, that's right, I am -removed- what I want. A category 3-4 hurricane coming right at where I live.... :wink:

The point I was attempting to make, was people see things in satellite loops when they WANT a hurricane to come/go a certain way, instead of looking at the logical things. That's the POINT and if you are a board moderator, you should know that because it is oh so obvious from the same old postere all of the time.

And as far where I THINK Dennis will go? It's way too far out there to guess within a 100 mile window like some here are attempting to do, but I do feel certain somewhere from Gulfport, over to Destin....O.K.?
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Rainband

#22 Postby Rainband » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:04 pm

Big EZ wrote:Yeah Raindband, that's right, I am -removed- what I want. A category 3-4 hurricane coming right at where I live.... :wink:

The point I was attempting to make, was people see things in satellite loops when they WANT a hurricane to come/go a certain way, instead of looking at the logical things. That's the POINT and if you are a board moderator, you should know that because it is oh so obvious from the same old postere all of the time.

And as far where I THINK Dennis will go? It's way too far out there to guess within a 100 mile window like some here are attempting to do, but I do feel certain somewhere from Gulfport, over to Destin....O.K.?
Just making sure, sorry everyone is on edge :wink:
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#23 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:10 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

If this type ridge verifies, it wouldn't surprise me to see Dennis in Texas.
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#24 Postby Steve » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:11 pm

I agree COMPLETELY with Big EZ about his premise. I started to post a thread today then I figured the major offenders would never bite so it was kind of worthless. The way it would be is this:

Someone state-casts or wish-casts (not honest questions, just discounting so-and-so model/forecaster/logic based apparently on their relative location). Someone else hits them with the Put Up Or Shut Up challenge (aka the "Storm2k Challenge"). The poster questioned then has 1 of 3 options:

a) explain what they were talking about with sound reason and/or logic;

b) Publically admit they were state-casting and/or -removed-

c) accepts the Storm2k Challenge and puts his or her money where his or her mouth is. At the point they call the challenge, the challenger is now on notice. He gives an alternative point of view (or why he believes so-and-so was -removed- or statecasting) and what might happen instead. If the statecaster/wishcaster ends up being right, the challenger has to contribute $10.00 to Storm2k or voluntarily surrender their posting rights for 1 week and vice versa.

Me? I'm man enough to put my money where my mouth is, though no one would ever accuse me of -removed- since I usually anti-wishcast just to make sure I don't jinx any potential storms that might come my way. I spent my childhood hurricane watching years looking at any storm that had a shot at hitting me turn at the last second or just not do what they said it was going to do.

I already offered this challenge to someone in another thread (a good guy) but they declined.

:)

Steve
Last edited by Steve on Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#25 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:11 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I'm not biting on the west of NO model runs. These same models also over reacted to the ridge to the east of Cindy and had her going to TX. We all saw what happened there, they were over emphasizing the ridging in the east and I believe they are doing it again.

In alot of these runs the height levels of the ridge along the east coast are not all that high and don't show them pushing across Florida which sends up a red flag in my book. My bet is a landfall between P'Cola and Biloxi with Mobile in the Target hairs.


Lets remember that the main reason Cindy went where dhe did was because of center reformations to the north. If the intitial center had been well maintained and had a good inner core...there is no way she would have made landfall where she did....it would have been further left where the models put her. As far as over emphasizing the ridge...the main reason that happened was because there was a deepening low a lot further north than where it was supposed to be. That'll lower heights every time... :-)

Once the center got its act together...the models did well with the ridge. Why? Because there wasn't a low forming due to center reformation where they weren't expecting it.

And...btw...the early runs of the GFS did great emphasizing a weak system and taking chunks of energy north away from the center...and we thought they were just not picking up on the system. Turns out...the GFS had the systems # early on and once it got developed...did really well.
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#26 Postby Kludge » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:19 pm

Try this experiment: with your left hand, block out the pane containing the poster's name and location. Then read the message. I'll bet that more than 90% you'll be able to guess the location of the poster.

Logically, you would think that "people I disagree with" would wish the devastation away from themselves. Nope.

This is an interesting experiment, and I'm sincerely delighted to see how much passion and fascination folks have with this quirk of nature.

That's why I'm drawn to this "hobby"; no matter how many billion$ the governments spend on research, and how many "experts" there are out there, no one can say For Sure exactly where these monsters will go.

I've got a cheap laptop dialed into NHC data in one hand, and a beer in the other. And (all antagonism and arrogance aside), I can truly say that my guess is as good as yours at this point.

One thing's for sure...it'll be fun to watch, right up until the moment that someone gets hurt.
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Rainband

#27 Postby Rainband » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:23 pm

Good posts. I agree we are interested in these storms but they come with a very big cost :(
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#28 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:25 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I'm not biting on the west of NO model runs. These same models also over reacted to the ridge to the east of Cindy and had her going to TX. We all saw what happened there, they were over emphasizing the ridging in the east and I believe they are doing it again.

In alot of these runs the height levels of the ridge along the east coast are not all that high and don't show them pushing across Florida which sends up a red flag in my book. My bet is a landfall between P'Cola and Biloxi with Mobile in the Target hairs.


Lets remember that the main reason Cindy went where dhe did was because of center reformations to the north. If the intitial center had been well maintained and had a good inner core...there is no way she would have made landfall where she did....it would have been further left where the models put her. As far as over emphasizing the ridge...the main reason that happened was because there was a deepening low a lot further north than where it was supposed to be. That'll lower heights every time... :-)

Once the center got its act together...the models did well with the ridge. Why? Because there wasn't a low forming due to center reformation where they weren't expecting it.

And...btw...the early runs of the GFS did great emphasizing a weak system and taking chunks of energy north away from the center...and we thought they were just not picking up on the system. Turns out...the GFS had the systems # early on and once it got developed...did really well.




GFS 06z on July 4th, watch the overemphazing of the ridge over the Gulf and no Cindy. It over emphasized the ridge on Arlene as well if memory served........
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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#29 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:33 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:

GFS 06z on July 4th, watch the overemphazing of the ridge over the Gulf and no Cindy. It over emphasized the ridge on Arlene as well if memory served........
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


You posted a SFC...you do realize that the sfc high has absolutely NO bearing on the movement of a storm...right? Seriously...it doesn't matter what any model does with the sfc...because steering flow for a system such as this is 500mb or higher. Even TD's like Cindy were don't get steered by the sfc.

When I was referring ot the ridge...I am speaking of the part of the atmosphere that matters...and when it came to that...the models did great.

You should never look at the sfc and compare previous runs to see what it is doing. You must always look at the level where the steering flow is. At the sfc...pressures will always lower as the steering flow moves a hurricane around the ridge.

What is more important is trends in the models. When models continuously trend in one direction...they do it for a reason....and it's ususally because they underestimate the strengths of ridges or trofs. When they trend west (as your map shows) they have underestimated the strength of the ridge. WHen they trend right...they have underestimated the trough.
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#30 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:36 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:

GFS 06z on July 4th, watch the overemphazing of the ridge over the Gulf and no Cindy. It over emphasized the ridge on Arlene as well if memory served........
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


You posted a SFC...you do realize that the sfc high has absolutely NO bearing on the movement of a storm...right? Seriously...it doesn't matter what any model does with the sfc...because steering flow for a system such as this is 500mb or higher. Even TD's like Cindy were don't get steered by the sfc.

When I was referring ot the ridge...I am speaking of the part of the atmosphere that matters...and when it came to that...the models did great.

You should never look at the sfc and compare previous runs to see what it is doing. You must always look at the level where the steering flow is. At the sfc...pressures will always lower as the steering flow moves a hurricane around the ridge.

What is more important is trends in the models. When models continuously trend in one direction...they do it for a reason....and it's ususally because they underestimate the strengths of ridges or trofs. When they trend west (as your map shows) they have underestimated the strength of the ridge. WHen they trend right...they have underestimated the trough.

AFM, I think the large majority of us know exactly what you're talking about and agree with you, but you can't satisfy some. Whether or not he's a wish-caster I'm not sure, I just hope if/when his FL call busts he will be here with sound proof of the mistakes he made.
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#31 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:45 pm

One more point...there is probably not any better place to be than the 5 day position. Matter of fact...when I saw Houston in the direct track of Cindy...I joked...but was also serious...they that was it...it wasn't coming here. Now...occasionally that will verify...but by and large...when you see the 5 day position going through your doorestep...much more times than not the storm will miss you wide left or wide right. :lol: :lol:
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#32 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:51 pm

Kludge wrote:Try this experiment: with your left hand, block out the pane containing the poster's name and location. Then read the message. I'll bet that more than 90% you'll be able to guess the location of the poster.

Logically, you would think that "people I disagree with" would wish the devastation away from themselves. Nope.

This is an interesting experiment, and I'm sincerely delighted to see how much passion and fascination folks have with this quirk of nature.

That's why I'm drawn to this "hobby"; no matter how many billion$ the governments spend on research, and how many "experts" there are out there, no one can say For Sure exactly where these monsters will go.

I've got a cheap laptop dialed into NHC data in one hand, and a beer in the other. And (all antagonism and arrogance aside), I can truly say that my guess is as good as yours at this point.

One thing's for sure...it'll be fun to watch, right up until the moment that someone gets hurt.


Kludge - I just have to reply that your post was a piece of greatness. Classic. Just Classic.

I'm down the road from you near The Woodlands. I put up Port Lavaca to Sabine Pass earlier today as my prediction. We'll see. We need the rain but not the wind.
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#33 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:57 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:

GFS 06z on July 4th, watch the overemphazing of the ridge over the Gulf and no Cindy. It over emphasized the ridge on Arlene as well if memory served........
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


You posted a SFC...you do realize that the sfc high has absolutely NO bearing on the movement of a storm...right? Seriously...it doesn't matter what any model does with the sfc...because steering flow for a system such as this is 500mb or higher. Even TD's like Cindy were don't get steered by the sfc.

When I was referring ot the ridge...I am speaking of the part of the atmosphere that matters...and when it came to that...the models did great.

You should never look at the sfc and compare previous runs to see what it is doing. You must always look at the level where the steering flow is. At the sfc...pressures will always lower as the steering flow moves a hurricane around the ridge.

What is more important is trends in the models. When models continuously trend in one direction...they do it for a reason....and it's ususally because they underestimate the strengths of ridges or trofs. When they trend west (as your map shows) they have underestimated the strength of the ridge. WHen they trend right...they have underestimated the trough.

AFM, I think the large majority of us know exactly what you're talking about and agree with you, but you can't satisfy some. Whether or not he's a wish-caster I'm not sure, I just hope if/when his FL call busts he will be here with sound proof of the mistakes he made.



I did not call a Florida strike, you need to learn to read.



AFM, you are right, I did pull up the surface by mistake, wife was yelling at me to come eat and I clicked on the wrong tab thinking it was 250mb. My bad.
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Rainband

#34 Postby Rainband » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:57 pm

Air Force Met wrote:One more point...there is probably not any better place to be than the 5 day position. Matter of fact...when I saw Houston in the direct track of Cindy...I joked...but was also serious...they that was it...it wasn't coming here. Now...occasionally that will verify...but by and large...when you see the 5 day position going through your doorestep...much more times than not the storm will miss you wide left or wide right. :lol: :lol:
wide left is my vote :wink:
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#35 Postby jkt21787 » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:58 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:

GFS 06z on July 4th, watch the overemphazing of the ridge over the Gulf and no Cindy. It over emphasized the ridge on Arlene as well if memory served........
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


You posted a SFC...you do realize that the sfc high has absolutely NO bearing on the movement of a storm...right? Seriously...it doesn't matter what any model does with the sfc...because steering flow for a system such as this is 500mb or higher. Even TD's like Cindy were don't get steered by the sfc.

When I was referring ot the ridge...I am speaking of the part of the atmosphere that matters...and when it came to that...the models did great.

You should never look at the sfc and compare previous runs to see what it is doing. You must always look at the level where the steering flow is. At the sfc...pressures will always lower as the steering flow moves a hurricane around the ridge.

What is more important is trends in the models. When models continuously trend in one direction...they do it for a reason....and it's ususally because they underestimate the strengths of ridges or trofs. When they trend west (as your map shows) they have underestimated the strength of the ridge. WHen they trend right...they have underestimated the trough.

AFM, I think the large majority of us know exactly what you're talking about and agree with you, but you can't satisfy some. Whether or not he's a wish-caster I'm not sure, I just hope if/when his FL call busts he will be here with sound proof of the mistakes he made.



I did not call a Florida strike, you need to learn to read.



AFM, you are right, I did pull up the surface by mistake, wife was yelling at me to come eat and I clicked on the wrong tab thinking it was 700mb. My bad.

Yes, sorry, I was thinking of another poster, not you. My apologies.
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#36 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 06, 2005 7:59 pm

I hate it when they yell to come eat during hurricane season...don't they know there are more important things to do than eat....or sleep.

I told my wife last night it felt like Sept with a storm hitting in the GOM and another one on the way.

Matter of fact...my wife is calling me to come outside...so I will go...begrudgingly.

:lol:
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#37 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:07 pm

Air Force Met wrote:I hate it when they yell to come eat during hurricane season...don't they know there are more important things to do than eat....or sleep.

I told my wife last night it felt like Sept with a storm hitting in the GOM and another one on the way.

Matter of fact...my wife is calling me to come outside...so I will go...begrudgingly.

:lol:


I usually shed 10 or so pounds come late Aug./Sept spending more time with my fingers on this keyboard jumping all around for TC info. than wrapping them around a big spoon full of Ice Cream. I'm going to lose close to 40 pounds this year the way it is going! :D
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