EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE DENNIS
NJN WEATHER CENTER
920 PM WED JULY 6TH 2005
Dennis became a hurricane shortly after 6pm et tonight when the NHC made a special advisory on his bump to hurricane status. Dennis has winds currently around 80 mph, and now there is the possibility he may grow, and grow rapidly as well.
Dennis is in a healthy environment, warm water will continue to feed him as most tropical systems would be. Dennis also appears to be developing impressive thunderstorms around what appears to be the beginning of his eyewall.
Remember also.. hurricanes will undergo ERC's as they grow which may also cause strength fluctuations. Dennis is forecast to be a landfalling hurricane in Western Alabama according to the NHC.
As the models shift east, west whatever.. I believe they may shift in Florida's direction. My official forecast has Dennis making a bit of a northward jog and then accelerating as he approaches Alabama/Florida. With a landfall somewhere in the Panhandle to possibly as far east as the Big Bend area.
It all hinges on whether or not the High pressure holds, and whether or not any other steering features become evident. There is new theories that the jet stream and a potentially south moving low may keep Dennis closer to Florida, but we may as well wait and see what happens.
A Dennis landfall would most likely be no earlier than Monday or late Sunday. I am forecasting Dennis to be a strong and very dangerous hurricane at landfall. But the possibility is there for Dennis to weaken as he approaches the coast. It seems to happen to landfalling Gulf systems, at least it happened to Ivan, Lili and Arlene.
The bottom line is anywhere from Florida all the way to Texas should watch the storm till it's onshore and dead. This is anybody's storm till that point.
Here is my experimental 5 day forecast on Dennis:
Tonight: Growing in strength and size. Max Winds: 85 mph
Thursday: Still growing, Passing well SE of Eastern Cuba, max winds. 90 mph
Friday: Possible rapid intensification, nearing major status, Max Winds: 110 mph
Saturday: Into the Gulf.. Diagonally paralell to the Keys and South Florida {but how close} Max Winds: 125 mph
Sunday: Making it's closest approach to Tampa Bay {if not coming this way} Max Winds: 130 mph
As always.. comments are welcomed
DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
