Dennis looks to pass south side of Jamaica....

[jkt21787]

Credit here goes to a EUSWX poster for this graphic, these are the recent recon center fixes...I think the trend is obvious

[Stratosphere747]

Love that map...

Could just be a "wobble" as the eye is becoming better defined.

[Derecho]

Also recon fix at 06/2305 was 1612(16.2)/7243(72.7)
fix at 07/0324 was 1624(16.4)/7338(73.6)

That's .2n/.9w almost due west. Ir pictures can decieve but recon doesn't lie.

Well, thats 282 degrees, which still technically is "West Northwest" but getting close to "West".

Also it's got a trochoidal wobble and between those recon fixes it likely was on the westward leg of one of those.

That said, I do suspect it's going to not pass N of Jamaica, and it does seem to be running south of most of the models.

[Ixolib]

Credit here goes to a EUSWX poster for this graphic, these are the recent recon center fixes...I think the trend is obvious

Which answers the question of will it pass south of the island.

[Hurricaneman]

It most likely will, but its going to be close

[jkt21787]

Love that map...

Could just be a "wobble" as the eye is becoming better defined.

Yes, I would like to see additional recon fixes before being 100% on this, but I think its definitely getting to be harder for Dennis to go north of jamaica. It could still go at least partially through it though.

[LilNoles2005]

I don't see a trend there.

[jkt21787]

Credit here goes to a EUSWX poster for this graphic, these are the recent recon center fixes...I think the trend is obvious

Which answers the question of will it pass south of the island.

Its turning more westward with time as the recon fix shows. Whether its a wobble or not remains to be seen but the chances of this going north of the island are much less while the chances of going south continue to increase.

[HouTXmetro]

Can you keep updating that graphic? Pretty neat.

[mobilebay]

Also recon fix at 06/2305 was 1612(16.2)/7243(72.7)
fix at 07/0324 was 1624(16.4)/7338(73.6)

That's .2n/.9w almost due west. Ir pictures can decieve but recon doesn't lie.

Well, thats 282 degrees, which still technically is "West Northwest" but getting close to "West".

Also it's got a trochoidal wobble and between those recon fixes it likely was on the westward leg of one of those.

That said, I do suspect it's going to not pass N of Jamaica, and it does seem to be running south of most of the models.

I know you said MOST of the models. However, the 18Z GFDL has it at 16.7 North at 1AM going to be pretty close. Last recon fix had it at about 16.5 and that was a little after 10PM.

[jkt21787]

Can you keep updating that graphic? Pretty neat.

Its not mine so I have no control. Sorry.

[jkt21787]

I don't see a trend there.

Yes it is just one fix but satellite shows it trending more west than north at time, still overall WNW.

[HouTXmetro]

I also think the ridge is getting stronger.

[skysummit]

I also think the ridge is getting stronger.

Yes, at least for the meantime. You can see it WV loop.

[jkt21787]

I also think the ridge is getting stronger.

Yes, at least for the meantime. You can see it WV loop.

And that will only force it more west. This wasn't unpredicted.

[skysummit]

I also think the ridge is getting stronger.

Yes, at least for the meantime. You can see it WV loop.

And that will only force it more west. This wasn't unpredicted.

Nope, and the models didn't see it either yet.

[reeef]

so will texas get a visiotor!!!

[Stratosphere747]

so will texas get a visiotor!!!

As always reef, stick with what the NHC says....

They have plenty of time to change if waranted..

As of now, Texas is not a target..

[skysummit]

so will texas get a visiotor!!!

Way too early and you know that.

[reeef]

lol yea im just bored and it got my hype up