Recon Reports Dennis

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#281 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 1:51 am

Flight: AF302
Observation Number: 01
Time: 0632Z
Location: 18.1 North 67.3 West
Flight Level: 6100 meters
Flight Level Winds: 22 knots //180
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#282 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:09 am

URNT11 KNHC 070700
97779 06554 50181 70008 61000 17036 6061/ /8036
RMK AF302 0304A DENNIS OB 02

Flight: AF302
Time:0700Z
Observation Number:02
Position: 18.1 North // 70.0 West
Flight Level: 6100 meters
Flight Level winds: 36 knots // 170

Added time to decode
0 likes   

gkrangers

#283 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:12 am

Ugh now I want to stay up and wait for a vortex....
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#284 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:49 am

Flight: AF302
Observation Number: 03
Time: 0740Z
Location: 18.0 North 72.9 West
Flight level: 3050 meters
Flight Level winds 58 knots // 150
700 Millibar height: 3133 meters
added 700 mb height
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#285 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:10 am

Wow this looks very powerful. A deep red convection is now all the way around the pin hole like eye. Expect the pressures to go below 970s soon. In also expect 100 mph soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#286 Postby P.K. » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:29 am

gkrangers wrote:Ugh now I want to stay up and wait for a vortex....


There you go, only 7 minutes old this one. :lol:

000
URNT12 KNHC 070821
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/08:02:30Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
074 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2830 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 092 deg 087 kt
G. 009 deg 012 nm
H. 970 mb
I. 10 C/ 3045 m
J. 15 C/ 3043 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0304A DENNIS OB 04
MAX FL WIND 87 KT N QUAD 07:59:10 Z
STRONG BANDING AROUND CENTER NE TO SW
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#287 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:32 am

Storm DENNIS: Observed By AF #302
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 87KT (100.0mph 161.1km/h) In N Quadrant At 07:59:10 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 78.3KT (90.0mph 145.0km/h) *
Position of the center: 16° 52' N 074° 16' W (16.9°N 74.3°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2830m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 087KT (100.05mph 161.1km/h) From 092°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 012nm (13.8 miles) From Center At Bearing 009°
Minimum pressure: 970mb (28.64in)
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

OB 04
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#288 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:34 am

Its nearing cat2 at this time..100 mph at 850 millibars=90 mph at surface. 970 millibars. Another 5 millibars drop.
0 likes   

User avatar
Pebbles
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1994
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 1:42 pm
Location: New Lenox, IL (SW of Chicago)

#289 Postby Pebbles » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:35 am

Some of us were talking in teamspeak and predicted 970mb... for once something I said varified! Had to happen some day *winks*
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#290 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:37 am

Observation Number: 05
Time: 0831Z
Position: 17.1 North 74.2 West
Sea Level Pressure: 977 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: n/a
925 millibar height: 485 meters
925 millibar winds: 93 knots // 070
850 millibar height: 1223 meters
850 millibar winds: 96 knots // 080
700 millibar height: 2889 meters
700 millibar wind: 83 knots // 095
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#291 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:39 am

96 knots at 850 millibars or 85 knots at the surface. In 93 knots at 925 millibars which is near the surface...Wow!!! This is a cat2 hurricane or very close.
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#292 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:51 am

Storm: Storm DENNIS: Observed By AF #302
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 87KT (100.0mph 161.1km/h) In N Quadrant At 07:59:10 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 78.3KT (90.0mph 145.0km/h) * (Report Time: 07/0844Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 17.1N 74.2W 087KT (100.05MPH 161.1km/h) [07:30:10Z to 07:58:20Z]
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 16.7N 74.3W 067KT (77.05MPH 124.1km/h) [08:07:20Z to 08:35:20Z]
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
I01 18.0N 72.9W 700mb Height @ 3133m 8°C 8°C 058KT (66.7MPH 107.4 km/h) @ 150°
I02 18.0N 73.3W 700mb Height @ 3122m 5°C 5°C 055KT (63.25MPH 101.9 km/h) @ 140°
I03 17.9N 73.5W 700mb Height @ 3118m 8°C 6°C 049KT (56.35MPH 90.8 km/h) @ 140°
I04 17.7N 73.7W 700mb Height @ 3100m 7°C 7°C 060KT (69MPH 111.1 km/h) @ 130°
I05 17.5N 73.9W 700mb Height @ 3083m 9°C 6°C 059KT (67.85MPH 109.3 km/h) @ 120°
I06 17.3N 74.1W 700mb Height @ 3044m 10°C 10°C 068KT (78.2MPH 125.9 km/h) @ 120°
I07 17.1N 74.2W 700mb Height @ 2941m 11°C 11°C 079KT (90.85MPH 146.3 km/h) @ 100°
O01 16.6N 74.4W 700mb Height @ 2983m 11°C 10°C 056KT (64.4MPH 103.7 km/h) @ 290°
O02 16.5N 74.6W 700mb Height @ 3046m 7°C 7°C 043KT (49.45MPH 79.6 km/h) @ 290°
O03 16.3N 74.8W 700mb Height @ 3077m 8°C 8°C 036KT (41.4MPH 66.7 km/h) @ 290°
O04 16.1N 75.0W 700mb Height @ 3091m 7°C 7°C 030KT (34.5MPH 55.6 km/h) @ 280°
O05 15.9N 75.2W 700mb Height @ 3102m 6°C 6°C 034KT (39.1MPH 63.0 km/h) @ 290°
O06 15.8N 75.3W 700mb Height @ 3111m 7°C 7°C 026KT (29.9MPH 48.1 km/h) @ 280°
O07 15.6N 75.5W 700mb Height @ 3118m 7°C 7°C 023KT (26.45MPH 42.6 km/h) @ 270°

OB 08

Corrected ob number
Last edited by clfenwi on Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#293 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 3:55 am

URNT11 KNHC 070841
97779 08354 50156 75609 30500 27022 08083 /3118
RMK AF302 0304A DENNIS OB 07

Flight: AF302
Observation Number: 07
Time 0841Z
Location: 15.6 North 75.6 West
Flight Level: 3050 meters
Flight level winds: 22 knots // 270
700 millibar height: 3118 meters
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#294 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:24 am

URNT11 KNHC 070914
97779 09094 50158 73308 30500 21045 08069 /3129
RMK AF302 0304A DENNIS OB 09

Flight: AF302
Observation Number: 09
Time: 0914Z
Position: 15.8 North 73.3 West
Flight Level: 3050 meters
Flight level winds: 45 knots // 210
700 millibar height: 3129 meters
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#295 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:27 am

Observation Number: 06
Time: 0832Z
Position: 16.9 North 74.3 West
Sea Level Pressure: 970 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 21 knots // 245
925 millibar height: 418 meters
925 millibar winds: 19 knots // 250
850 millibar height: 1159 meters
850 millibar winds: 16 knots // 260
700 millibar height: 2833 meters
700 millibar winds: 5 knots // 020

Eye dropsonde

corrected 850 millibar height, yeah, I think I am getting tired
Last edited by clfenwi on Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#296 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:04 am

Storm DENNIS: Observed By AF #302
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 87KT (100.0mph 161.1km/h) In N Quadrant At 07:59:10 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 78.3KT (90.0mph 145.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: EWALL RAGGED AROUND CENTER
Position of the center: 17° 10' N 074° 28' W (17.2°N 74.5°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2825m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 080KT (92mph 148.2km/h) From 232°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 010nm (11.5 miles) From Center At Bearing 139°
Minimum pressure: 968mb (28.59in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 20nm (23.0 mi 37.0km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

OB 10
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#297 Postby drezee » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:15 am

87 kt SW winds...

62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1700N07425W 0938 LST WND 014 MBL WND 21087 AEV
20507 DLM WND 22080 983704 WL150 20585 088 =
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#298 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:16 am

Observation Number: 11
Time: 1000Z
Position: 17.2 North 74.5 West
Sea Level Pressure: 968 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 7 knots // 190
925 millibar height: 405 meters
925 millibar winds: 7 knots // 215
850 millibar height: 1147 meters
850 millibar winds: 8 knots // 265
700 millibar height: 2818 meters
700 millibar winds: 5 knots // 235
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#299 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:20 am

Observation Number: 12
Time: 1001Z
Position: 16.9 North 74.3 West
Sea Level Pressure: 985 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: n/a
925 millibar height: 550 meters
925 millibar winds: 82 knots // 215
850 millibar height: 1286 meters
850 millibar winds: 79 knots // 225
700 millibar height: 2940 meters
700 millibar winds: 78 knots // 235
0 likes   

clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#300 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:24 am

OK guys, y'all have the watch, it is naptime for me...

last ob was #12
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], KirbyDude25, Team Ghost and 522 guests