NW JOG ?

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tailgater
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NW JOG ?

#1 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:56 am

Over the last 5 or 6 hours Dennis has had a more northward trend, which could be great news for Jamaica and most of us mainlanders.
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TheShrimper
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#2 Postby TheShrimper » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:00 am

How could it be "great news to us mainlanders? What are you trying to say?
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#3 Postby BamaMan » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:00 am

Not to just post and be in disagreement with you, but stairstepping, and organization can give that appearance. In the last 6 hours he has gone from 16.5N - 17.0N (.5) and from 73.4W - 74.6W (1.2) A definite WNW movement for now
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#4 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:03 am

Besides, a true NW movement would be bad news for Jamaica, considering it looks like it will only brush the south coast of the island if anything.
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#5 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:05 am

TheShrimper wrote:How could it be "great news to us mainlanders? What are you trying to say?

The closer it comes to the Cuban mountains, lesser chance of intensifying
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#6 Postby margaritabeach » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:08 am

mtm4319 wrote:Besides, a true NW movement would be bad news for Jamaica, considering it looks like it will only brush the south coast of the island if anything.


not sure what map your looking at but no way this is only going to brush the south coast of Jamaica unless it heads due west from here
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#7 Postby BamaMan » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:08 am

True . . . . If he goes over the western most portion of Cuba he will not be affected very much at all due to the flat terrain in that area, but a little more to the middle of Cuba would bode well for some area further down the road possibly
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#8 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:09 am

BamaMan wrote:Not to just post and be in disagreement with you, but stairstepping, and organization can give that appearance. In the last 6 hours he has gone from 16.5N - 17.0N (.5) and from 73.4W - 74.6W (1.2) A definite WNW movement for now

Not trying to be ugly ,but the header did say Jog not movement or direction. "the last 5or 6 hrs."
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#9 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jul 07, 2005 5:37 am

You can't be sure of the track based on 6 hours of movement but this mornings GFS was right of yesterdays.
The 5 AM NHC discussion mentioned that the GFS model called for a lower intensity because of interaction with Cuba.
The GFS had landfall up near Apalachicola after tracking uncomfortably close to Key West and the west coast of Florida.
Would this track be better than a cat 2 or 3 hit on New Orleans?
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#10 Postby Steve H. » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:36 am

Thre is a definite NW motion now. More definitive than I've seen since he developed.
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#11 Postby Blown Away » Thu Jul 07, 2005 6:40 am

Good post, accurate observation, yes it is a "jog" like you stated, we will have to wait and see if it is a trend. Some people over analyze every post, very annoying!
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#12 Postby Stormtrack03 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 7:03 am

NHC has confirmed this in the 8 am advisory, we wil lhave to wait and see if the models pick up on this.
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#13 Postby CourierPR » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:07 am

The folks on this board have written much about Dennis affecting the Gulf Coast. However, it would seem to me that the more northerly course puts Peninsular Florida back under the gun.
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#14 Postby HurricaneGirl » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:15 am

It has slowed down somewhat too.
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#15 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:20 am

CourierPR wrote:The folks on this board have written much about Dennis affecting the Gulf Coast. However, it would seem to me that the more northerly course puts Peninsular Florida back under the gun.

I'm no pro but I would think that it would resume a WNW course very soon, the ridge is pretty strong over the Fla peninsular and should get a reinforcing high after Cindy gets out the way. I just think the strength will be effected somewhat, it may continue to increase but not at the rate it would have if he had went well south of Jamaica. ( just speculation)
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#16 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:21 am

Mayhe decided he didn't want to plow over Jamaica and is deciding to dance around...kinda like Ivan.
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#17 Postby feederband » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:24 am

Does it look like it going to hit cuba alot sooner than we thought...
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#18 Postby Normandy » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:25 am

Yep, looks like hes dancin around it to the north.....good news for jamaica that i was wrong :D
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#19 Postby Agua » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:28 am

Definite NW movement. I'm starting to breathe a little easier here.
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#20 Postby feederband » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:29 am

Agua wrote:Definite NW movement. I'm starting to breathe a little easier here.


I'm not....
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