NW JOG ?

tim_in_ga · #21 Postby **tim_in_ga** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:35 am

After watching the IR loop over and over, I think the NW jog is an illusion based on a flare-up of convection wrapping around the north of center. Time will tell where it's really headed, but looks like it will skirt the south coast of Jamaica to me.

#22 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:41 am

I said last night and yesterday that it would go south of Jamaica, it had been on a more nw motion and then it went back to a true wnw movement. Well, the same is happening now, but I don't see it going south of Jamaica any longer. Looks like the NHC has their track in pretty good shape. Looking at the latest Water Vapor loop you can see that the high is pretty strong and building to the west, you can already see the high affecting the storm to the north. This should block any real northerly component. It may take a track between Jamaica and Cuba, but I don't see it crossing Cuba earlier than expected. With that being said, I'm not saying the Gulf Coast is about to get clobbered. But, looks to me that the high is building west and high pressure is going to fill the trough left by Cindy. This should keep Dennis on a more wnw track. I am no longer comfortable forecasting this thing beyond 24 hours. I'll leave that to the pros. Just my thoughts, any feed back is welcome.

#23 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:43 am

Looks to me as if it is going to cross right across Jamaica. I figured it would just skirt to the south of the island, but now right overhead looks to be the trend unless it can do a little more significant stairstepping!

#24 Postby **amawea** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:54 am

Wpwxguy, Your thoughts are mine exactly. I belive the ridge is building a little to the s.w. and that Dennis will again take a wnw track and probably cross western Cuba. after that it depends on how far south and west the ridge is. If I were still living in s.e. Tx I would still be paying attention to this storm as they have defied logic at times in the past.
amawea

#25 Postby **feederband** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:57 am

Looks like going wnw now...

#26 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:59 am

Current progs are for the ridge to actually retreat East a little instead of building in as was originally thought, even into yesterday evening. That would mean we will probably, if it verifies, continue to see a right shift to the models as the day wears on. That being said, NO ONE ON THE GULF COAST is free and clear yet. Dennis is a large and dangerous hurricane and will affect a large swath of the coast wherever he landfalls. IF and I do mean IF the peninsula of FL becomes threatened we could be looking at a Cat3 hurricane moving up the West coast of FL just off the coast. Basics are that none of this is set in stone and EVERYONE ON THE GULF COAST NEEDS TO MONITOR DENNIS CLOSELY and at least begin preliminary preparations for a Hurricane. I have.

cinlfla · #27 Postby **cinlfla** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:05 am

Looks like going wnw now...

I agree!!!

#28 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:07 am

vbhoutex wrote:Current progs are for the ridge to actually retreat East a little instead of building in as was originally thought, even into yesterday evening. That would mean we will probably, if it verifies, continue to see a right shift to the models as the day wears on. That being said, NO ONE ON THE GULF COAST is free and clear yet. Dennis is a large and dangerous hurricane and will affect a large swath of the coast wherever he landfalls. IF and I do mean IF the peninsula of FL becomes threatened we could be looking at a Cat3 hurricane moving up the West coast of FL just off the coast. Basics are that none of this is set in stone and EVERYONE ON THE GULF COAST NEEDS TO MONITOR DENNIS CLOSELY and at least begin preliminary preparations for a Hurricane. I have.

Brilliant post!

<RICKY>

Guest · #29 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:09 am

We have a classic case of the models not knowing how to handle Dennis around Jamaica. Jamaica will divert the storm temporarely and it will get back on track.

#30 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:12 am

Someone mentioned this and I agree with them. These storms don't travel in straight lines...and the stronger storms tend to wobble more than weaker storms, I've observed.

Website · #31 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:13 am

Air Force Met wrote:Mayhe decided he didn't want to plow over Jamaica and is deciding to dance around...kinda like Ivan.

Yep...

Noticeable NW motion this morning.

#32 Postby **seahawkjd** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:14 am

Also, its been said many times but remember, storms are not dots either. Especially in the Gulf where the storm is boxed in and a storm this large a wide area is going to be affected in one way or another.

#33 Postby **loon** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:21 am

Just a thought here, but I'm curious if the models chose the direct path Cindy left open due to the data of Cindy being there being put into the data stream. I say this because she has really taken off NE the last 6hrs and a stream of Mid-Upper level winds from East to west have kicked it up alot again since the last 6hrs. looking back over night there was alot of push from the west to east, especially in the wake of Cindy, which, to me, would explain Dennis's move NW'ly last night. Now it looks as if the winds have recovered with a definate pusth east to westerly again, and some have spoke of Dennis regaining a more WNW, however due to close-in loop issues that I and others have spoke of this morning, I can not comment on this. Just some thoughts and I'd like to hear back from anyone, but especially mets or analysts. This year instead of attempting to predict where things go, I'm trying to see what made things move the way they did and follow the environment changes, hence my call in another thread for real-time present and past ridging and wind data, instead of looking at predicted data.

thanks everyone....
it has its ups and downs, but I do enjoy this site alot

cheers
loon

#34 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:24 am

How good is the ETAI model? Because it pulls a Charley fiasco. It has Dennis crossing Cuba then taking a right....right into Florida about 100 miles south of Tampa. I'm sure this is unlikely, but just curious.

hurricanefloyd5 · #35 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:34 am

that nw jog is a clue into it self...... and i say that because if the hurricane movement jogged to the nw then 3 things i can think of is happening here 1st the high north over florida is weakening, 2 it's moving away or 3rd its weakening and the high is also shrucking in size. that is the only thing i can think of of why it jogged nw last adv. and moving at 10mph.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

my guess is and i know im going out on the limb here but think the track might shift eastward abit.......................

p.s. anyone agree??????????????????

NW JOG ?

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