I think the NHC has a good handle on Dennis

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Stormcenter
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I think the NHC has a good handle on Dennis

#1 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:26 am

It seems to me that the NHC has got a pretty good handle
on Dennis. He's pretty much is following the track they anticipated. I'm sticking with the MS/AL landfall but it could be a little further east. IMO
Last edited by Stormcenter on Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:27 am

Same here. I'm thinking Pascagoula to Destin.
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#3 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:27 am

Tracking storms is becoming more reliable, intensity is just another story...

PCB, FL cat 2
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#4 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:29 am

I still believe N.O to Mobile, perhaps on the eastern end of that. Going with a high cat 2 landfall intensity due to possible shear effects in the Gulf. Could be much higher though.
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AL Chili Pepper
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#5 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:37 am

I just heard from a very reliable source that the area of focus will shift further east shortly....specifically Pensacola to Perry, FL. A system behind Cindy may prevent the ridge from reestablishing itself as strongly as expected.
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#6 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:40 am

AL Chili Pepper wrote:I just heard from a very reliable source that the area of focus will shift further east shortly....specifically Pensacola to Perry, FL. A system behind Cindy may prevent the ridge from reestablishing itself as strongly as expected.

New NHC track does not represent this view.
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#7 Postby chris_fit » Thu Jul 07, 2005 9:47 am

AL Chili Pepper wrote:I just heard from a very reliable source that the area of focus will shift further east shortly....specifically Pensacola to Perry, FL. A system behind Cindy may prevent the ridge from reestablishing itself as strongly as expected.


If this verifies, Tom Terry in Orlando called it 2 days ago... Props to him if he's correct.
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Opal storm

#8 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:18 am

Obviously the NHC must think they have a good handle on the track becuase there have been no major shifts and no signs of one to come.Looks like a panhandle/AL landfall.
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#9 Postby drudd1 » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:26 am

Opal storm wrote:Obviously the NHC must think they have a good handle on the track because there have been no major shifts and no signs of one to come.Looks like a panhandle/AL landfall.


I seriously doubt you will see any major shifts occurring all at once from the NHC. They will be very cautious this far out until there is high confidence in the reason for the models shifting east, and they feel comfortable with changing the forecast track. I assure you they are watching the trends, and reasons behind them, prior to jumping onto any given scenario. They will move slowly and deliberately, which is a good thing, and try to get it right.
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