Mind Boggling

[jasons2k]

I have been looking at everything I can find this morning and I don't think I have ever been so perplexed by a storm.

I almost feel helpless.

Yesterday I felt pretty confident with my prediction of Dennis scirting south of Jamaica and heading generall WNW with a landfall between Port Lavaca and Sabine Pass. I thought today would bring some clarity. Unfortunately it amost seems more cloudy today then yesterday. Right now I could not say with confidence if I think the ridge to the north will build SW and push it towards TX or if the ridge will shift to the East (as some are hinting) and we could even have a Tampa or Big Bend storm. Heck, I can't even nail down how close it will come to Jamaica at this point, much less what state it will hit.

Hopefully later today we'll have some clarity, but right now I'm feeling like my forecasting chops are doing no good. I dunno if any of you guys feel the same way but I think the best thing we can do is pray for those who will be affected and see how it plays out.

One final thought - I have been looking at SE Louisiana scenarios and if that does play out, I just can't imagine what *might* be about to happen.

[BonesXL]

I also echo your frustrations....

[dwg71]

Though I appreciate your prediction of a Texas Landfall, its not based on any data backed up by pro mets, nhc, or even floydbuster. This has never been and will not be a TX storm (IMO and many other opinion). The models have had this thing pegged since get go. Its been as far west as NOLA and as far east as panhandle.

Trust NHC on the track.

PCB, FL Cat 2

[loon]

What would peoples thinking be if he travels almost due west for the rest of today...?

[jasons2k]

To me a Texas landfall is now a heck of a lot less likely than yesterday. With this new Northwest wobble/jog, I think this makes it more likely for a Florida landfall, now yes, I know what you're going to say, you're from Texas, i'm from Florida, no, i'm not -removed-, but with this northwest movement, doesn't this really make it less likely for a landfall West of New Orleans and a Panhandle landfall alot more likely??

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

Take all wobbles and jogs with a grain of salt, especially as the storm intensifies.

Yes, TX prob less likely today, but still on the table until the ridge placement is clear.

[dwg71]

What would peoples thinking be if he travels almost due west for the rest of today...?

What if it travelled due south all day?? both are as equally likely.

[loon]

It was just a question, but I do appreciate your candor. I'm not predicting, I was just asking. I see your point, don't ask stupid questions. I was just think it could make it to the tip of Cuba (southside, between cuba and jamaica) before turning alot North, maybe even NE.....but I can see rational discussions aren't really of any interests to some on this board....

[HurryKane]

It was just a question, but I do appreciate your candor. I'm not predicting, I was just asking. I see your point, don't ask stupid questions. I was just think it could make it to the tip of Cuba (southside, between cuba and jamaica) before turning alot North, maybe even NE.....but I can see rational discussions aren't really of any interests to some on this board....

Loon, it wasn't a stupid question at all. And that's coming from the queen of stupid questions who will ask them no matter how stupid they are.

[dwg71]

Sorry loon,didnt mean to dismiss your question. That being said, there is nothing to hint of a 270 heading today, everything shows the course will not change much until it gets to the gulf. The models have never been so tightly clustered.

[dwg71]

dwg,

You apparently have some of those protective state-casting issues everyone on the board is getting to hate more and more. The guy never ONCE predicted a TX landfall yet you jumped all over him and then on loon too.


Steve

He said "felt pretty confident with my prediction of Dennis scirting south of Jamaica and heading generall WNW with a landfall between Port Lavaca and Sabine Pass." Do you know where Port Lavaca is, it's in TX.

[jasons2k]

dwg,

You apparently have some of those protective state-casting issues everyone on the board is getting to hate more and more. The guy never ONCE predicted a TX landfall yet you jumped all over him and then on loon too.


Steve

He said "felt pretty confident with my prediction of Dennis scirting south of Jamaica and heading generall WNW with a landfall between Port Lavaca and Sabine Pass." Do you know where Port Lavaca is, it's in TX.

Just to clarify, yes that was a prediction, but from Yesterday. Today I'm at a loss, If I had to make one now I'd say N.O. to Pascagoula. Texas very unlikely but still a plausible scenario. But too far away to get a handle on it.

[GalvestonDuck]

Though I appreciate your prediction of a Texas Landfall, its not based on any data backed up by pro mets, nhc, or even floydbuster. This has never been and will not be a TX storm (IMO and many other opinion). The models have had this thing pegged since get go. Its been as far west as NOLA and as far east as panhandle.

Trust NHC on the track.

PCB, FL Cat 2

First off -- Mike Naso (Floydbuster), in no way do I mean any offense to you, okay.

DWG -- FB's forecast are no more professional nor official than anyone else here in the Talkin' Tropics forum and he makes a point of giving a disclaimer to that effect. There is no need to jump on jschlitz for his opinion and his attempt at predicting where this storm may or may not go. Let's face it -- a lot of us were unsure a few days ago. Just because IYO "and many other" does not mean ALL of us share that opinion.

I personally felt somewhat confident that we here in Texas wouldn't have to worry. However, I stated once and I'll state again that I wanted to see where Dennis was in relation to Jamaica first (to know how far west and south he was before his turn) and I wasn't going to let my guard down. To say that it never has been a Texas storm is far-fetched. More than 7 days out is too far to predict where a storm will go. So, as far as I'm concerned and until I know for sure, ANY storm in the Caribbean could be a Texas storm...or an Alabama storm, a Florida storm, a Mississippi storm, a Louisiana storm, or a fish. A lot of key factors can change in a week.

It's really sad -- half the time, people get berated for "-removed-" simply because they happen to post more often if they're attempting to understand the risk for their area. As far as we've known, the whole northern Gulf Coast has been watching this storm and to accuse anyone in that area of -removed- is ludicrous. Then, the other half of the time, someone will say we're in the clear and everyone jumps on them for being premature.

It's inevitable. Who was it a couple of years ago (Alicia, maybe, or Pojo?) who said that posts tend to follow a pattern before a storm. First, everyone sees the wave and tries to figure out if it's going to develop. Then, when it does develop, everyone argues about where it's going to go and how strong it will be. As it gets closer, everyone tries to pinpoint the landfall and those who predict anywhere outside the general consensus get labeled as "****casters." Eventually, all that settles down and those who care and aren't afraid to post anymore begin giving well wishes to those in danger while those in danger post updates about their final preparations and evac plans.

Once again, we are all hear to learn from each other and teach each other about the weather, as well as to support those in need in times of crisis.

[dwg71]

Though I appreciate your prediction of a Texas Landfall, its not based on any data backed up by pro mets, nhc, or even floydbuster. This has never been and will not be a TX storm (IMO and many other opinion). The models have had this thing pegged since get go. Its been as far west as NOLA and as far east as panhandle.

Trust NHC on the track.

PCB, FL Cat 2

First off -- Mike Naso (Floydbuster), in no way do I mean any offense to you, okay.

DWG -- FB's forecast are no more professional nor official than anyone else here in the Talkin' Tropics forum and he makes a point of giving a disclaimer to that effect. There is no need to jump on jschlitz for his opinion and his attempt at predicting where this storm may or may not go. Let's face it -- a lot of us were unsure a few days ago. Just because IYO "and many other" does not mean ALL of us share that opinion.

I personally felt somewhat confident that we here in Texas wouldn't have to worry. However, I stated once and I'll state again that I wanted to see where Dennis was in relation to Jamaica first (to know how far west and south he was before his turn) and I wasn't going to let my guard down. To say that it never has been a Texas storm is far-fetched. More than 7 days out is too far to predict where a storm will go. So, as far as I'm concerned and until I know for sure, ANY storm in the Caribbean could be a Texas storm...or an Alabama storm, a Florida storm, a Mississippi storm, a Louisiana storm, or a fish. A lot of key factors can change in a week.

It's really sad -- half the time, people get berated for "-removed-" simply because they happen to post more often if they're attempting to understand the risk for their area. As far as we've known, the whole northern Gulf Coast has been watching this storm and to accuse anyone in that area of -removed- is ludicrous. Then, the other half of the time, someone will say we're in the clear and everyone jumps on them for being premature.

It's inevitable. Who was it a couple of years ago (Alicia, maybe, or Pojo?) who said that posts tend to follow a pattern before a storm. First, everyone sees the wave and tries to figure out if it's going to develop. Then, when it does develop, everyone argues about where it's going to go and how strong it will be. As it gets closer, everyone tries to pinpoint the landfall and those who predict anywhere outside the general consensus get labeled as "****casters." Eventually, all that settles down and those who care and aren't afraid to post anymore begin giving well wishes to those in danger while those in danger post updates about their final preparations and evac plans.

Once again, we are all hear to learn from each other and teach each other about the weather, as well as to support those in need in times of crisis.

I added Floydbuster as a comical reference (not that Mike is comical), I'm sorry if I offended anybody, it wasnt my intention.

[jasons2k]

Though I appreciate your prediction of a Texas Landfall, its not based on any data backed up by pro mets, nhc, or even floydbuster. This has never been and will not be a TX storm (IMO and many other opinion). The models have had this thing pegged since get go. Its been as far west as NOLA and as far east as panhandle.

Trust NHC on the track.

PCB, FL Cat 2

First off -- Mike Naso (Floydbuster), in no way do I mean any offense to you, okay.

DWG -- FB's forecast are no more professional nor official than anyone else here in the Talkin' Tropics forum and he makes a point of giving a disclaimer to that effect. There is no need to jump on jschlitz for his opinion and his attempt at predicting where this storm may or may not go. Let's face it -- a lot of us were unsure a few days ago. Just because IYO "and many other" does not mean ALL of us share that opinion.

I personally felt somewhat confident that we here in Texas wouldn't have to worry. However, I stated once and I'll state again that I wanted to see where Dennis was in relation to Jamaica first (to know how far west and south he was before his turn) and I wasn't going to let my guard down. To say that it never has been a Texas storm is far-fetched. More than 7 days out is too far to predict where a storm will go. So, as far as I'm concerned and until I know for sure, ANY storm in the Caribbean could be a Texas storm...or an Alabama storm, a Florida storm, a Mississippi storm, a Louisiana storm, or a fish. A lot of key factors can change in a week.

It's really sad -- half the time, people get berated for "-removed-" simply because they happen to post more often if they're attempting to understand the risk for their area. As far as we've known, the whole northern Gulf Coast has been watching this storm and to accuse anyone in that area of -removed- is ludicrous. Then, the other half of the time, someone will say we're in the clear and everyone jumps on them for being premature.

It's inevitable. Who was it a couple of years ago (Alicia, maybe, or Pojo?) who said that posts tend to follow a pattern before a storm. First, everyone sees the wave and tries to figure out if it's going to develop. Then, when it does develop, everyone argues about where it's going to go and how strong it will be. As it gets closer, everyone tries to pinpoint the landfall and those who predict anywhere outside the general consensus get labeled as "****casters." Eventually, all that settles down and those who care and aren't afraid to post anymore begin giving well wishes to those in danger while those in danger post updates about their final preparations and evac plans.

Once again, we are all hear to learn from each other and teach each other about the weather, as well as to support those in need in times of crisis.

Thank you Galveston. I think that pretty much sums it up and was very well stated.

Also, you are prob. aware here in TX I was not the only one concerned yesterday. The NWS WFO's from HGX, FWD, SAT, and even SJT (San Angelo) yesterday were discussing possible impacts of Dennis in their PM discussions yesterday.