Underestimating the Ridge

[Downdraft]

Just like last year we seem to be at the point where the models just can't handle the Atlantic ridge accurately. Latest recon shifts everything to the right cause the ridge is NOT as strong as thought. It looks like nail biting time for southern Florida!

[Weatherboy1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

With all due respect to the models, it sure looks from WV imagery (this is a GOMEX image ... but by viewing a full U.S. view, you'll see much of the same) that the trough behind Cindy is not giving way. It's holding fast in the mid-Gulf, and seems to be getting reinforced by a shortwave behind it.

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'll go back to what I said last evening -- storms tend to start getting steered by troughs when they're within about 10 degrees of latitude/longitude, and really deflected when they're within 8 degrees or so. It looks to me like Dennis is only about 12 degrees away, give or take.

Maybe the models are right and this trough will lift out quickly. But it better happen quick if peninsular FL is going to avoid some damaging effects from this storm.

-Mike

[Rainband]

Can't wait to read our local discussion here this afternoon.

[gatorcane]

I don't understand the NHC. They have most of Southern FL out of the cone and suddenly now they are under a hurricane watch. Doesn't make sense to me. Widen the cone!

[chris_fit]

I don't understand the NHC. They have most of Southern FL out of the cone and suddenly now they are under a hurricane watch. Doesn't make sense to me. Widen the cone!

Gettin Serious Everywhere

[dhweather]

And if this verified?

12Z UKMET (which has been quite consistent for 2 days)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

people, dont get caught up in 1 run, the buzz was it going to Louisiana, now the buzz is into the peninsula of florida, they will go back and forth for the next couple of days then start to settle later on, everyone along the gulfcoast should prepare but seems like every whatever the latest trend is, people want to set on that, jmo

[LAwxrgal]

people, dont get caught up in 1 run, the buzz was it going to Louisiana, now the buzz is into the peninsula of florida, they will go back and forth for the next couple of days then start to settle later on, everyone along the gulfcoast should prepare but seems like every whatever the latest trend is, people want to set on that, jmo

Exactly. The models have and will continue to flipflop. Everyone along the Gulf Coast must prepare for a major hurricane this weekend/early next week.

[jdray]

The only two models that have not flopped have been the CMC and the NOGAPS.

CMC is a penisula runner
NOGAPS is a Pensacola hit.

[gatorcane]

so the NHC should WIDEN the cone then.

[rtd2]

people, dont get caught up in 1 run, the buzz was it going to Louisiana, now the buzz is into the peninsula of florida, they will go back and forth for the next couple of days then start to settle later on, everyone along the gulfcoast should prepare but seems like every whatever the latest trend is, people want to set on that, jmo

Exactly. The models have and will continue to flipflop. Everyone along the Gulf Coast must prepare for a major hurricane this weekend/early next week.

AGREED! PEOPLE need Look at the Official Landfall Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day
it was at P'cola then Shifted west to Mobile Yesturday and last night Now its back east to Where? P'cola...So thats only about a 50mile Difference with Several Model Runs under there Belt...

[vbhoutex]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'll go back to what I said last evening -- storms tend to start getting steered by troughs when they're within about 10 degrees of latitude/longitude, and really deflected when they're within 8 degrees or so. It looks to me like Dennis is only about 12 degrees away, give or take.

Maybe the models are right and this trough will lift out quickly. But it better happen quick if peninsular FL is going to avoid some damaging effects from this storm.

-Mike

Your are correct about the effects of the trough. We saw this last year. As far as crazy, you post at STORM2K, don't you?

[gatorcane]

AGREED! PEOPLE need Look at the Official Landfall Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day
it was at P'cola then Shifted west to Mobile Yesturday and last night Now its back east to Where? P'cola...So thats only about a 50mile Difference with Several Model Runs under there Belt...

It's startling to me because yesterday most of the models agreed up to about 48 hrs. Now the NHC shifts the track east which is concerning because the NHC is usually conservative. With the center tracking NW now I wouldn't be surprised if we see another shift to the East later this afternoon

[Ground_Zero_92]

AGREED! PEOPLE need Look at the Official Landfall Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day
it was at P'cola then Shifted west to Mobile Yesturday and last night Now its back east to Where? P'cola...So thats only about a 50mile Difference with Several Model Runs under there Belt...

It's startling to me because yesterday most of the models agreed up to about 48 hrs. Now the NHC shifts the track east which is concerning because the NHC is usually conservative. With the center tracking NW now I wouldn't be surprised if we see another shift to the East later this afternoon

I hope your wrong!

[Rainband]

people, dont get caught up in 1 run, the buzz was it going to Louisiana, now the buzz is into the peninsula of florida, they will go back and forth for the next couple of days then start to settle later on, everyone along the gulfcoast should prepare but seems like every whatever the latest trend is, people want to set on that, jmo

Exactly. The models have and will continue to flipflop. Everyone along the Gulf Coast must prepare for a major hurricane this weekend/early next week.

AGREED! PEOPLE need Look at the Official Landfall Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day
it was at P'cola then Shifted west to Mobile Yesturday and last night Now its back east to Where? P'cola...So thats only about a 50mile Difference with Several Model Runs under there Belt...

one important footnote. These shifts happened while the storm was moving wnw. It is now officially moving NW so that will have big implications on the future track IF it continues. Just some food for thought.

[shortwave]

They expect the ridge centered off the coast of florida to erode on the west side or the entire axis to shift eastward? looks fairly strong at the moment.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[jkt21787]

The only two models that have not flopped have been the CMC and the NOGAPS.

CMC is a penisula runner
NOGAPS is a Pensacola hit.

Both models are horrible in tropical systems (NOGAPS not as bad though)

Have you noticed the models initializing the system at about 1000 mb lately? How do you expect a track like that to be accurate?

If its FL its the panhandle.

Also the UKMET has not flopped at all with a NOLA hit. Why didn't you mention that one?

[Innotech]

IM not worried about a Louisiana hit anymore. Pretty certain weve escaped htis one.

[jkt21787]

IM not worried about a Louisiana hit anymore. Pretty certain weve escaped htis one.

Please don't have that attitude yet. The 12z euro maintain a high threat to New Orleans. While the chances of a NOLA hit may be decreasing, you should not begin to have a "its not coming" here attitude.

[gatorcane]

Connect the dots on the latest satellite...its heading towards the FL Keys...if it's already turned NW, I think FL should be VERY concerned at this point.