Underestimating the Ridge

[rtd2]

They expect the ridge centered off the coast of florida to erode on the west side or the entire axis to shift eastward? looks fairly strong at the moment.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Shortwave...NICE link! Looking at that loop It appears that the ridge..while not necessarily weaker..is in a slightly different position-i.e,
more of a ENE to WSW orientation. This repositioning could have a lot to do with the more northwestward motion. I see NO signs that the ridge is really eroding all that much if at all but its POSITION may be a key factor

[Ivanhater]

wow, look how many threads we have about the florida peninsula getting hit, i guess people just go with the newest trend, i do agree they need to watch to, but its funny how when the models flop in one direction people go crazy, not a bad thing though

[Air Force Met]

I know it is stressful for those in the NGOM and NEGOM...but considering we've been looking at where this is gonna landfall since early week...and we're still 3 days out...the track has been pretty consistant. I mean we're talking a diff of 150 miles or so overall...and that is pretty amazing for 6 days out. Yeah there are a few models on the outside...but by and large they've been consistant. I know it doesn't help when you go from TS winds forecast to the bullseye...but think about it...it could be a lot worse. We could be seeing massive flops in the models east and west....which tends to happen a lot. The fact we are not is a relief and has a lot to do with the fact this is a big storm (in size).

[gatorcane]

wow, look how many threads we have about the florida peninsula getting hit, i guess people just go with the newest trend, i do agree they need to watch to, but its funny how when the models flop in one direction people go crazy, not a bad thing though

I'm very concerned about Pensacola...start preparing.

[rtd2]

wow, look how many threads we have about the florida peninsula getting hit, i guess people just go with the newest trend, i do agree they need to watch to, but its funny how when the models flop in one direction people go crazy, not a bad thing though

Its called HYPE...And so far there is NO cure! Tonight if the Models shift again we will see a New crowd! Soory I'll be here for awhile! I'm Stuck in the Middle!

[Brent]

Connect the dots on the latest satellite...its heading towards the FL Keys...if it's already turned NW, I think FL should be VERY concerned at this point.

Relax... why does everyone go into a frenzy when a hurricane is going to pass a good 100 miles off the Florida Peninsula??? That's the west coast too. THIS IS NOT GOING TO HIT SOUTH FLORIDA. Effects-yes, but the eye will stay west of Key West.

[Canelaw99]

people, dont get caught up in 1 run, the buzz was it going to Louisiana, now the buzz is into the peninsula of florida, they will go back and forth for the next couple of days then start to settle later on, everyone along the gulfcoast should prepare but seems like every whatever the latest trend is, people want to set on that, jmo

You have to understand, though that we here in S. FL (including the Keys) don't have a day or two. According to the NHC's predictions, Dennis should be in the vicinity of the Keys by Sat. morning. Precautions have to be taken ahead of that time. The residents along the Gulf Coast have another day or so, but not those of us further south. Please remember that and let us listen to the buzz as needed

[Ivanhater]

ugh dont say that bad word PENSACOLA! lol

[Rainband]

Connect the dots on the latest satellite...its heading towards the FL Keys...if it's already turned NW, I think FL should be VERY concerned at this point.

Relax... why does everyone go into a frenzy when a hurricane is going to pass a good 100 miles off the Florida Peninsula??? That's the west coast too. THIS IS NOT GOING TO HIT SOUTH FLORIDA. Effects-yes, but the eye will stay west of Key West.

You need too relax as well

[margaritabeach]

Connect the dots on the latest satellite...its heading towards the FL Keys...if it's already turned NW, I think FL should be VERY concerned at this point.

Relax... why does everyone go into a frenzy when a hurricane is going to pass a good 100 miles off the Florida Peninsula??? That's the west coast too. THIS IS NOT GOING TO HIT SOUTH FLORIDA. Effects-yes, but the eye will stay west of Key West.

tell that to the people in Punta Gorda who still have blue tarps or are living in Fema trailers from last year

[Ixolib]

You have to understand, though that we here in S. FL (including the Keys) don't have a day or two. According to the NHC's predictions, Dennis should be in the vicinity of the Keys by Sat. morning. Precautions have to be taken ahead of that time. The residents along the Gulf Coast have another day or so, but not those of us further south. Please remember that and let us listen to the buzz as needed

Good Point!!

[Lindaloo]

Let's ALL calm down. For information on evacs in your area you should tune into your local news and emergency management operations.

[Ivanhater]

totally agree canelaw like i said everyone needs to prepare, im just pointing out the new buzz that comes with every model run, its intriguing

[Rainband]

I think it's more about the NW turn and not the models. IMHO.

[jdray]

The only two models that have not flopped have been the CMC and the NOGAPS.

CMC is a penisula runner
NOGAPS is a Pensacola hit.

Both models are horrible in tropical systems (NOGAPS not as bad though)

Have you noticed the models initializing the system at about 1000 mb lately? How do you expect a track like that to be accurate?

If its FL its the panhandle.

Also the UKMET has not flopped at all with a NOLA hit. Why didn't you mention that one?

Last 3 runs, 12Z 7/7, 00Z 7/7 and 12Z 7/6 do show a NOLA hit.
previous runs were a panhandle hit.

CMC and NOGAPS have been more than 6 runs in a row.

[jkt21787]

The only two models that have not flopped have been the CMC and the NOGAPS.

CMC is a penisula runner
NOGAPS is a Pensacola hit.

Both models are horrible in tropical systems (NOGAPS not as bad though)

Have you noticed the models initializing the system at about 1000 mb lately? How do you expect a track like that to be accurate?

If its FL its the panhandle.

Also the UKMET has not flopped at all with a NOLA hit. Why didn't you mention that one?

Last 3 runs, 12Z 7/7, 00Z 7/7 and 12Z 7/6 do show a NOLA hit.
previous runs were a panhandle hit.

CMC and NOGAPS have been more than 6 runs in a row.

again, they initialize poorly. You simply can't trust a model that does that.

At this point I am certainly not ruling out a Panhandle Hit but Peninsula hit is stretching it.

[Brent]

Connect the dots on the latest satellite...its heading towards the FL Keys...if it's already turned NW, I think FL should be VERY concerned at this point.

Relax... why does everyone go into a frenzy when a hurricane is going to pass a good 100 miles off the Florida Peninsula??? That's the west coast too. THIS IS NOT GOING TO HIT SOUTH FLORIDA. Effects-yes, but the eye will stay west of Key West.

tell that to the people in Punta Gorda who still have blue tarps or are living in Fema trailers from last year

Charley was also expected to be dangerously close to the Florida West Coast and could have turned at anytime... this doesn't have a massive trough to force it into South Florida.

[rtd2]

I think it's more about the NW turn and not the models. IMHO.

Rainband didnt NHC mention a NW turn about this time in the track?

[Brent]

Connect the dots on the latest satellite...its heading towards the FL Keys...if it's already turned NW, I think FL should be VERY concerned at this point.

Relax... why does everyone go into a frenzy when a hurricane is going to pass a good 100 miles off the Florida Peninsula??? That's the west coast too. THIS IS NOT GOING TO HIT SOUTH FLORIDA. Effects-yes, but the eye will stay west of Key West.

You need too relax as well

Maybe so... but it's just annoying when everyone acts like the world is ending. The NHC has TS watches up. They do not expect hurricane conditions in South Florida(outside of the Keys) and certainly don't expect a landfall.

[rtd2]

Connect the dots on the latest satellite...its heading towards the FL Keys...if it's already turned NW, I think FL should be VERY concerned at this point.

Relax... why does everyone go into a frenzy when a hurricane is going to pass a good 100 miles off the Florida Peninsula??? That's the west coast too. THIS IS NOT GOING TO HIT SOUTH FLORIDA. Effects-yes, but the eye will stay west of Key West.

You need too relax as well

Maybe so... but it's just annoying when everyone acts like the world is ending. The NHC has TS watches up. They do not expect hurricane conditions in South Florida(outside of the Keys) and certainly don't expect a landfall.

lets take a Lunch break! I'm headed to quiznos!