Solid NW movement may come to an end soon

[ALhurricane]

If you take a look at a water vapor loop..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

You will see the ridge sitting to the north of Dennis. See how the flow is moving straight from east to west? It is going to be hard for Dennis to continue moving due NW. Therefore I expect more of a WNW heading to commence at some point later today which will take Dennis toward the western end of Cuba (a little further west than the NHC track).

[jkt21787]

Thanks for the insight AL...

A very long day of watching all the wobbles, lets see what this meance named Dennis (appropriately) does.

[Johnny]

Agreed...and then the models will shift once again.

[skysummit]

Hmm...I won't buy that just yet. I'll have to see it to believe it. Please do continue posting your thoughts though

[Ivanhater]

i also think so, looks like its not much of a northerly component it was before, guess we shall see

[HollynLA]

Local met David Bernard also mentioned this and said he doesn't expect the NW movement to continue either. Models will shift back and forth until probably Saturday. How nerve wracking is this?

[CaptinCrunch]

ALH,

I see the same thing, the ridge will push Dennis away from FL and will steer it more toward the LA, MS costline.

[crazycajuncane]

The biggest question for all is.... how much west?

That straight NW motion does seem to be changing back to WNW though. We'll see

[Foladar]

i also think so, looks like its not much of a northerly component it was before, guess we shall see

Between 11AM and 2PM it's still got a bit of northly component going .6N and .5W, and 1N 1W between 5AM-11AM

[Agua]

the models will shift once again.

Now that prediction will verify.

[jrod]

I wouldnt be suprised at all if he starts going westward just in time to miss the larger mountains of Cuba.

That ridge may move easterly over in the days ahead, if that happens it will give Dennis another opportunity to take a more northerly track.

[Patrick99]

The ridge still seems pretty persistent, from where I sit, using the "look out the window" method of weather forecasting. That's why I never thought it would come here.

Do I see some sort of shortwave attempting to dive down from the Midwest, though?

[Weatherboy1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

To use another WV loop, it appears to me that Cindy and her associated trough is starting to shunt that ridge/high to the east. I do NOT expect a direct hit here in SE FL by any stretch of the imagination unless something drastically changes. But it seems to me this trough isn't going anywhere (and isn't that a reinforcing shortwave dropping into its base by TX/LA?) Bear with me if my observations are off base ... I'm not a professional, just an amateur who tries to follow this stuff closely.

-Mike

[rtd2]

Posted on this earlier! ( http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 124#931124) East to west flow is strong and We may even see a Due West Mvt. for a short time once system get North of Cuba. SEE
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[nolecaster]

Off topic:

I'm dying in my seat every time I see crazycajuncane make a post. That little fat jiggly guy is hilarious!

[jkt21787]

Off topic:

I'm dying in my seat every time I see crazycajuncane make a post. That little fat jiggly guy is hilarious!

LOL I get a giggle too!

[margaritabeach]

question: it seems that the outflow to the North is still expaning to the North nicely. Would it not start to flatten if it was feeling the effects of the ridge?

[dhweather]

If you watch the WV loop here, you'll see the ridge centered near
30/80

Easterly flow is increasing across South Florida into the Bahamas on the South side of this ridge.

I agree with ALhurricane that a more westerly track will resume shortly.

IT APPEARS that the ridge is building back into the Eastern GOM -
to around 86/27 - if that continues, then the threat to Florida would
decrease, however nobody east of Texas should let their guard down.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[skysummit]

The models sure are spread out right now. Anyone who subscribes to MidAtlanticWx.com, take a look...they just updated again. They stretch all the way from SE La. to South Florida, and they seem no longer "concentrated" on one single region.

[CaptinCrunch]

question: it seems that the outflow to the North is still expaning to the North nicely. Would it not start to flatten if it was feeling the effects of the ridge?

Not at this time, it's still to far to the S and moving to the NW soon to be WNW.