Another Eastward Shift for 5pm Advisory?

[gatorcane]

I'm growing concerned. The path is favoring the right part of the cone. There are some wobbles but in general the storm still appears to be moving towards the FL Keys. Will we see another shift to the right at the 5pm advisory?

[swimaster20]

I don't think so, but that is just my opinion.

DISCLAIMER: LISTEN TO THE NHC/NWS/NOAA FOR OFFICIAL TRACKS

[gatorcane]

some models are now showing a direct hit on the FL Keys

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005070712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=036hr

[gatorcane]

I seriously doubt Boca Raton will be included in the new projection cone, I would doubt even most of West Florida would be at all. I still think that Louisiana to Pensacola is a likely landfalling point, but as the models are trending towards Panama City, the west Florida coast needs to continue to be vigilant, HOWEVER...it's those on the Northern Gulfcoast in most danger right now, followed by the Florida Keys, which will surely be the first to feel the effects of Dennis.

I would be very concerned in Naples if I were you

[joseph01]

I'll be anxiously waiting to see if they do, but I have no idea at this point. I wouldn't want that responsibility either.

[LilNoles2005]

some models are now showing a direct hit on the FL Keys

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005070712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=036hr

Unless I am reading that wrong, it does not look like they have Dennis as a hurricane at that point, but instead a tropical storm. I would not put much faith, if any, into this model, despite it's consistency.

[gatorcane]

Really?? Why? You don't expect a landfall anywhere near SW Florida do you??

I'm very surprised this storm has moved so much NW over the past 12 hours...there's no reason why it will go back to a WNW course...connect the dots and the FL Keys and SW Florida are a direct hit...also some models are showing direct hits in these areas and the models that were farther left are shifting more to the right with each run.

[chris_fit]

IMO Yes they will shift to the right, by how much though?

[Canelaw99]

HOWEVER...it's those on the Northern Gulfcoast in most danger right now, followed by the Florida Keys, which will surely be the first to feel the effects of Dennis.

Technically, it's those in Jamaica and Cuba that are in the most danger right now, then those in the FL Keys as they would feel effects first. I DO agree with you, as I have said all week, that those all along the Gulf Coast, including FL, need to sit up and take notice. Whatever Dennis does in regards to the Keys, it appears that he might end up back in the Gulf. Should he do that, those in line for a 2nd strike would be in for a doozy I would believe.

*MY OPINION ONLY*

[Canelaw99]

seriously lol...how thick headed can we get...I don't know if it's just b/c we're all from Florida but...we all seem to think Florida is in grave danger..do you guys think it's b/c we are from Florida and biased, or truly because we are in significant danger here in S. Florida. I'm not trying to make anyone mad..but everyone in this topic, or almost all, have been from some part of Florida or another....i dunno...i'm just wierd.

LOL don't know - maybe it's that we're all weird to live here In reality, I was feeling a lot more comfortable yesterday than I have been since I saw the news at 8am this morning. I have relatives in the Keys, so I've had to sit up and really take notice of this one today, as I think all of FL has. I think this relatively drastic switch has thrown all of FL off-guard because we really did seem to be more in the clear yesterday. I know the 2pm advisory will help us, but I think we'll really know more about FL's fate at 5pm, so time will tell

[drudd1]

Don't think it's -removed- if you are concerned and live in Florida. Fact of the matter is, at this point, Florida is not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination. I have become more concerned today based on what I am seeing. Add to that the fact that Dennis passed north of Jamaica, contrary to the predictions of a large number of folks, mets and amateurs alike, and I am beginning to get a bad feeling.

[Foladar]

seriously lol...how thick headed can we get...I don't know if it's just b/c we're all from Florida but...we all seem to think Florida is in grave danger..do you guys think it's b/c we are from Florida and biased, or truly because we are in significant danger here in S. Florida. I'm not trying to make anyone mad..but everyone in this topic, or almost all, have been from some part of Florida or another....i dunno...i'm just wierd.

If I recall, every time something is showing up, you seem to be screaming for a Naples landfall, suprising to say the least you aren't saying that now.

[Brent]

seriously lol...how thick headed can we get...I don't know if it's just b/c we're all from Florida but...we all seem to think Florida is in grave danger..do you guys think it's b/c we are from Florida and biased, or truly because we are in significant danger here in S. Florida. I'm not trying to make anyone mad..but everyone in this topic, or almost all, have been from some part of Florida or another....i dunno...i'm just wierd.

If I recall, every time something is showing up, you seem to be screaming for a Naples landfall, suprising to say the least you aren't saying that now.

*snicker*

[chris_fit]

There are hurricane watches for the Keys... Keys = S. Florida.

Hello?!?! Who is -removed-?

Hurricane Watch = Watch for Hurricane... imagine that!

[Weatherboy1]

Looking at absolutely everything possible (official track, WV loops, models, etc.), it seems to me that Dennis will likely pass a lot closer to the W FL coast than expected yesterday, but I do NOT foresee a direct hit. My semi-educated guess is that TS conditions will be experienced by those directly on the Gulf coast. In the lower Keys, I'd be a bit more concerned. This thing could come awfully close to Key West.

As for us East Coasters, I am not TOO concerned here in Jupiter (about 27N 80W). There is almost no chance -- in my opinion -- of a direct hit. Most likely, we'll just get rain wind, and the occasional TS-force gust.

Note: these are all just an amateur's observation, not an official forecast.

[tracyswfla]

I'd be suprised if conditions get that bad on the Central East coast at all, however, I really don't think the West Coast will have much to worry about, nothing we're not use to, some medium/light winds, more like a really long afternoon thunderstorm...lol.

Kevin Cho

Kevin, I think I will disagree with you today. (about SW Coast) You are playing it safe, so no one disagrees with you. Look at the NWS discussion and the latest model runs.

[feederband]

I think the will give Florida more of a cone....With the terrorist attack and with what happened with charly last year maybe they will do it just to make sure we are keeping up with it...IMO

[tracyswfla]

I'd be suprised if conditions get that bad on the Central East coast at all, however, I really don't think the West Coast will have much to worry about, nothing we're not use to, some medium/light winds, more like a really long afternoon thunderstorm...lol.

Kevin Cho

Kevin, I think I will disagree with you today. (about SW Coast) You are playing it safe, so no one disagrees with you. Look at the NWS discussion and the latest model runs.

I"m just hoping for the best haha..lol .

And so am I... I think you are a smart kid. Don't let anyone make you feel like you can't state your honest opinion for fear of retaliation. Keep up the good analysis.

[DIDDLESBABE]

I have read most of the posts in this thread. A lot of you "do" seem to be from Florida. I for one have not forgotten last August when a guy named
Charley came knocking - be brave if you like - but I for one was scared !

I felt more comfortable yesterday about Dennis - but not today. Our
grandsons just arrived today for a week - and I would certainly like that
they are not in harms way.

What are the feeling here about SW Fl. (really), especially Ft. Myers

Thanks for your help

[feederband]

I hate to say it but I'm sure glad Cuba is there.......I also think track shifts right again at 5pm....