18:00z Model Guidance=More Shift East,Ukmet the loner

[cycloneye]

[jkt21787]

GFS and its associated models say FL Panhandle.

UKMET is all by itself with N.O. FWIW, Euro is showing a Mobile Area landfall.

[ALhurricane]

With the GFS going way east, it was expected the hurricane models would follow suit since they are run off of the GFS.

I still have my doubts about a track this far to the east...

[swimaster20]

Aren't some of the models being intialized too far north and east?

[LAwxrgal]

I have doubts about the UKMET. I wonder why it's going so far west?

[dwg71]

no, if anything they are too far west...

[jasons2k]

I'm still sticking with New Iberia to Pascagoula and still riding the UKMET.

[LilNoles2005]

Aren't some of the models being intialized too far north and east?

Where'd you read that? Doesn't look like that to me.

[loon]

Question, has another GSIV flown out yet? Will it? If not, is the same data found last night fed back in each model run?

[LAwxrgal]

Aren't some of the models being intialized too far north and east?

Where'd you read that? Doesn't look like that to me.

He probably heard that from Joe B's tropical update on Yahoo this morning.

[LAwxrgal]

Aren't some of the models being intialized too far north and east?

Where'd you read that? Doesn't look like that to me.

He probably heard that from Joe B's tropical update on Yahoo this morning. Not saying I agree with Joe B's thinking... but it's just another opinion out there.

[lilbump3000]

I dont know whats wrong with the models but I think there just not right today I mean you can clearly see theres still a strong east to west flow over southern florida and the SE gulf and the models seem to be totally missing that.

[dhweather]

Imagine the chaos if they shift back West at 00Z.

[Weatherboy1]

With the GFS going way east, it was expected the hurricane models would follow suit since they are run off of the GFS.

I still have my doubts about a track this far to the east...

I understand that the tropical suite is run off the GFS backdrop. And I see that the other globals (NOGAPS, UKMET and ECMWF) are still being fairly consistent about a AL/NE FL/MS threat. But shouldn't we consider the GFS model likely to be the MOST accurate, given that it incorporates the NOAA Gulfstream jet data? I may be wrong about the exact details about how these models work, but I thought the other globals do NOT have that extra data in them and therefore, would tend to be less reliable. Thoughts?

-Mike

[loon]

Imagine the chaos if they shift back West at 00Z.

dhweather, I was gonna say that. You think people are throwing some fits now, hehe, I'd take tomorrow of from work just to make sure I didn't miss any excitement on here....lol.

[HollynLA]

Imagine the chaos if they shift back West at 00Z.

Oh I can guarantee they will shift within the next 4 days, and then the battle between FL residents and LA/MS/AL residents begins.

[Brent]

Imagine the chaos if they shift back West at 00Z.

dhweather, I was gonna say that. You think people are throwing some fits now, hehe, I'd take tomorrow of from work just to make sure I didn't miss any excitement on here....lol.

First it's "OMG! OMG! OMG! IT'S HEADED FOR FLORIDA "

and then it's well... less panic when it points to MS/AL.

[deltadog03]

yeah, they did intialized to far north and east...i think New Orleans is still the bullseye...the ridge is building to the north of the system...its evident on the WV and the VIS

[gboudx]

Maybe all the Catholic Cajuns in S. La have more praying power than those in Fla.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Why is Tampa NWS saying the ridge is weaker than expected and will be retreating eastward? This is probably the data the models are using now to shift east. Are those assumptions wrong?