Recon Reports Dennis

[senorpepr]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 17
Time: 19:40:50Z
Latitude: 18.8°N
Longitude: 76.4°W
Location: 63 mi NNE of Kingston, Jamaica
Minimum height at 700 mb 2731 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: WSW (244°) @ 107 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 10 mi SSE (149°)
Sea level pressure: 957 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 52°F at 10066 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 63°F at 9970 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 54°F
Eye character: OPEN SOUTH
Eye shape: Elliptical
Eye diameter: Major axis oriented E (90°), major axis length: 10 mi, minor axis length: 7 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 93 KT SE QUAD 19:37:10 Z

[gkrangers]

957? Weakening, storm cancel.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing has developed a round Cdo which is red. Many a cat4 has this. It has also has a very small eye which is 10 nmi wide. I expect this to keep bombing.

[Scorpion]

LMAO I was waiting for that.

[margaritabeach]

still solid NW direction. .4/.4

[Thunder44]

The pressure rise maybe due to an ERC. I notice the eye in visible images has filled in the in the last hour. It's not weakening.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its most likely going through a ERC at this time. But the system is already getting ready to bomb again. I expect the pressure to be down by 11pm into the 940s. 93 knots over the southeast quad. wow wow wow...

[wxwatcher91]

true... im still wondering if its not just the interaction with land right now

[Brent]

957? Weakening, storm cancel.

[clfenwi]

Observation number: 18
Time: 1954Z
Position: 18.9 North 76.6 West
Sea Level pressure: 986 millibars
Surface winds: 61 knots // 015
925 millibar height: 559 meters
950 millibar winds: 92 knots // 040
850 millibar height: 1294 meters
850 millibar winds: 86 knots // 045
700 millibar height: 2954 meters
700 millibar winds: 47 knots // 065

[clfenwi]

Plane: AF304
Observation Number: 19
Time: 1955Z
Location 18.8 North // 76.4 West
Sea Level Pressure: 957 millibars
Surface winds: n/a
925 milibar height: 297 meters
925 millibar winds: 12 knots // 255
850 millibar height: 1039 meters
850 millibar winds: 7 knots // 290
700 millibar height: 2719 meters
700 millibar winds: 49 knots // 060

Added location

[dwg71]

what was the position on 19...

[clfenwi]

Plane: AF300
Observation: 01
Time: 1956Z
Position: 29.0 North 95.0 West
Sea Level Pressure: 1014 millibars
Surface winds: 13 knots // 190
1000 millibar height: 120 meters
1000 millibar winds: 14 knots // 190
925 millibar height: 809 meters:
950 millibar winds: 11 knots // 230
850 millibar height: 1547 meters
850 millibar winds: 3 knots // 330
700 millibar height: 3195 meters
700 millibar winds: 10 knots //005
500 millibar height: 5590 meters
500 milllibar winds: 12 knots // 320

Relief for AF304 now on the way...

Obviously they are testing our sanity what with AF304 and NOAA 9 already airborne and spitting out obs...

[gkrangers]

Theres probably going to be an aircraft in there at all times from now on.

[chris_fit]

957? Weakening, storm cancel.

ERC maybe

[senorpepr]

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 20
Time: 2016Z
Latitude: 17.5°N
Longitude: 75.1°W
Location: 115 mi ESE of Kingston, Jamaica
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: SSW (200°) @ 61 mph
Temperature: 46°F
Dewpoint: 45°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: S (170°) @ 58 mph
Remarks: None

[clfenwi]

Flight: AF300
Observation Number: 02
Time: 2017Z
Location: 27.0 North 95.0 West
Sea Level Pressure: 1014 millibars
Surface winds: 9 knots // 110
1000 millibar height: 127 meters
1000 millibar winds: 7 knots // 100
925 millibar height: 816 meters
925 millibar winds: 1 knot // 330
850 millibar height: 1550 meters
850 millibar winds: 3 knots // 120
700 millibar height: 3195 meters
700 millibar winds: 4 knots // 050
500 millibar height: 5591 meters
500 millibar winds: 9 knots // 320

[GalvestonDuck]

957? Weakening, storm cancel.

Serious question for educational purposes -- has anyone explained to you -- the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm?

[gkrangers]

957? Weakening, storm cancel.

Serious question for educational purposes -- has anyone explained to you -- the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm?

The pressure was up 1mb from the last Vortex, so I couldn't contain myself and had to make a post like that. They probably missed the exactly low pressure center, and the storm looks like it may be going into an ERC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember when a ERC is happening the pressure rises fast as the inner eyewall weakens. The outter eye is taking over. In which case when it tightens the storm becomes stronger. I expect that with the 90 degree water under this. That once this tightens 125 mph could be at 11pm. In by 5am 135 mph cat4. That is a guest if I'm reading this system right.