Solid NW movement may come to an end soon

[Foladar]

isnt icron that you floridians seem to love this movment east....hahaha..2 can play...but, hey...the models will change again..when they relize that the ridge is here to stay...not to mention the one coming in from the great plains

Not going to Texas, and btw, seems the GFS has shifted .. east again (according to some posts)

[Roxy]

Hey Roxy!!
Yeah...I'm sure we'll be fine here....but it's not looking too good for RP...AGAIN. You know they lost EVERYTHING last year in Ivan...I really hate for her and her family to have to go through another storm.

Please tell her I hope things turn out ok, I know it must be tough for her.

[deltadog03]

i don't care if they all show going out to the atlantic..they are shifting cuz of there interpretation of the ridge now over fl...we can sit here till heck freezes over but, until he gets closer to cuba and gets effected by the ridge then we will have a better idea...

[goodlife]

Roxy...I sent you a PM.

[Foladar]

WOW...I was just watching the tropical update..they showed a high resolution stattelite view of the storm closeup, amazing...it looked almost due North for the last few frames...it was NW, then almost WNW, then NW, and then almost due north for the last few frames...I'm suprised, if anyone sees this high res sattelite view soon, please tell me i'm not crazy or if I am, please tell me I need to sleep haha..but seriously, all bias aside, I really believe this storm is on a NNW jog right now.

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

The GFS has it going NNW ..

[NorthGaWeather]

Isnt it ironic that all the people who keep saying its moving WNW are from Texas and LA??

And all the people that say it isn't are from FL. Hmm

[deltadog03]

yeah its funny...you floridians want this thing to come your way, then when it goes crazy you all whine and say why me?? thats the truth right?

[Foladar]

yeah its funny...you floridians want this thing to come your way, then when it goes crazy you all whine and say why me?? thats the truth right?

Personally, you can have it, but that's just me.

[deltadog03]

all i know..when it gets to cuba it will hit the ridge...and should start moving west..

[NorthGaWeather]

We're saying its going NW because it is going NW and the threat is increasing for us by the hour.

Interesting map

Figure 5a: NHC Official forecast tracks (OFCL) for Hurricane Ivan during the period 1800 UTC 02 through 0600 UTC16 September 2004 (1stU.S.landfall). Note the persistent right-of-track bias from the outset as a result of most of the global models prematurely eroding the subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane.

[LilNoles2005]

OMG, could you guys stop already? You look so ridiculous arguing about which way Dennis is jogging.

[x-y-no]

Regarding the strength of the ridge, I'm not so convinced it's as strong as it appears from WV imagery. The reason is that WV imagery is going to be biased to the highest layer, but a deep system is steered by the whole column.

Here are upper-level wind analyses for the last 9 hours, ripped from the Wisconsin site and cropped down some:









Note that while the 100-250mb winds are indeed very vigorous north of Cuba and over western Cuba, the 251-300 and 301-500 winds are fairly weak there, and have tended weaker over the last half a day at least.

Also, the WSW winds over the northern Gulf and north Florida have gotten stronger and have progressed ever so slightly souteast over the period.

Jan

[HardCard]

yes but the 1pm coor would be diff.. it was 18.6N by 76.1W, the latest is 76.6 by 19.00.... thats .4 north, and .5 west.... which is WNW regardless of what the nhc says... I can add.

Yes, you want it to go into New Orleans, we know. WNW is not .4N .5W - it is 1N 1W since 11am, so still same direction so far, can't look at wobbles, have to look at the bigger picture.

You seem too think that anyone that posts an opposing opinion to your own is either -removed- or is an idiot..

On the contrary, I DO NOT want this storm in NOLA. Do you think I am stupid? A storm of this (potential) magnatude would likely destroy most of the buildings in NOLA and would kills THOUSANDS. Why do i say that? because WWL the local radio station is running a poll on 'who would evac if it's called for' 56% of the people said they would be STAYING... IDIOTS...

Since you think I am -removed- so much.. you'd probably be surprised to hear that I believe the current NHC track is probably extremely accurate.

Additionally.. if you look at ANY storm track is a larger view you could say as a whole this storm has moved NW.. However, since we actually DO examine the storms report-to-report, and consider the fact that storms do turn and wobble.. I think I am right to say that the last movement had more of a west component that the previous movement..

Just because it's a wobble doesn't mean it's not affecting the overall track.. a wobble can be just as significant as a trend.

[soonertwister]

Something that people need to remember is that nautical bearing from point to point in latitude/longitude terms isn't quite the same a compass bearing. Each degree of change in latitude from the equator to either pole is an identical distance around the globe, but degrees of change in longitude roughly are equal with changes of latitude at the equator, but get smaller and smaller as you approach either pole.

At 30 degrees north or south latitude one degree of longitude is only about 0.866 degrees of latitude. At 60 degrees it is only 0.5 degrees.

So true compass NW, or 315 degrees relative to the true north pole, anywhere but near the equator is by necessity a larger change in longitude that latitude. At 25 degrees north, a change of a degree west and a degree north is a bearing closer to north than to west.

If you are standing one foot from the true north pole, and you take a step across the pole to one foot directly on the other side of it, it could be argued that you traveled either 180 degrees east or west, at a bearing of either 90 or 270 degrees. Both statements are correct, and equivalent.

Even though by a third truth, you went one foot at a bearing of 0 degrees, and a second at 180 degrees.

;^))

[Foladar]

OMG, could you guys stop already? You look so ridiculous arguing about which way Dennis is jogging.

It's jogging south

And HardCard, take it how you want. Don't recall calling you an idiot or anything for that matter, .4N .5W is not WNW, nor is .1N .1W

[Foladar]

Foladar..you also said to me that you thought I was -removed- earlier, and was suprised that I didn't expect this storm to hit Naples.....I think we're all about equally guilty with bias...so w/e. We don't need to keep accusing people of -removed-..

Kevin Cho

I never said that, I said you seem to be saying "Naples this, Naples that" .. you just assumed the rest, seems quite a few people agree on the Naples statement.

[HardCard]

Ok.. I'm -removed- now.. .I'll let you figure out where I am wishing for.

[wx247]

Well we can be for sure that I am not biased.

[HardCard]

sorry guys, there are better threads to read now, and my mommy just called.

[chris_fit]

Some sort of more of a N jog in the last 2 frames, i see it