Ridge is erroding easterly...

[ericinmia]

I don't have the time to explain these in detail... but look at the "lines" and their directions. The isobars "line" over florida and into the atlantic is the ridge. The lined bending from west to south and into this ridge is the trough that is erroding this ridge. This is the reason the GFS is hooking Dennis NNW then back wnw. It is also the reason the CMC has been showing the miami area as a landfall point in the past few days runs.

I believe this will cause Dennis to skim offshore the southwest coast of florida.
-Eric

Here is 12 hours ago...


Here is now...

[jlauderdal]

I don't have the time to explain these in detail... but look at the "lines" and their directions. The isobars "line" over florida and into the atlantic is the ridge. The lined bending from west to south and into this ridge is the trough that is erroding this ridge. This is the reason the GFS is hooking Dennis NNW then back wnw. It is also the reason the CMC has been showing the miami area as a landfall point in the past few days runs.

I believe this will cause Dennis to skim offshore the southwest coast of florida.
-Eric

Here is 12 hours ago...


Here is now...

good coherent analysis that is reasonable and time will tell if it verifies. until this thing comes off cuba no one will know who is getting it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

what this mean to you eric?

[deltadog03]

this is 1 model...ok. nws/nhc

[loon]

this is 1 model...ok. nws/nhc

I don't think this is a model...its current readings, I believe....this is what I've been looking at, more present and past information, and trying NOT to look at future readings...its easier that way and keeps you out of the back and forth wars...=]

[ericinmia]

this is 1 model...ok. nws/nhc

I don't think this is a model...its current readings, I believe....this is what I've been looking at, more present and past information, and trying NOT to look at future readings...its easier that way and keeps you out of the back and forth wars...=]

EXACTLY...

[x-y-no]

See the upper level wind analysis I posted here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=66630&start=140

It shows the same thing.

Jan

[x-y-no]

this is 1 model...ok. nws/nhc

No. Not models, but sattelite derived data.

Jan

[loon]

See the upper level wind analysis I posted here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=66630&start=140

It shows the same thing.

Jan

Agreed, nice post btw, you can tell the low level winds are still kicking pretty good from the WV...but like you said, upper winds are dying out. It was mentioned in another post that tonights models will run with todays GSIV numbers in it. This I believe will be the tell all. I think Cindy has moved enough away, and everything is moving back so whatever comes out with that data will probably skew the models one way or the other, should be neat to see.

cheers
loon

[delo]

I would hate to wish this one ANYONE, but I tell you, those of us in Destin are sweating bullets right now. Suuuuuuuure don't need this right now.

Some of our beaches have eroded so badly there are 15 ft cliffs in areas and you can see old peat beds and Cypress tree trunks....

[ColdFront77]

This was the point I was trying to make in the chatroom yesterday afternoon.

The high wasn't expected to stay in place to make a even halfway decent chance of Dennis to move to make landfall along the Louisiana and/or Alabama coasts.

It's said time and time again (and rightly so) that these systems are difficult to forecast, so the "sounds of a guarantee" the last couple of days so many days from
the system being in the GOM didn't/doesn't make much sense.