I have been reading where some folks seem to think that the NW heading now could be throwing the models in the direction of Apalichicola, but that there is a good chance of the high building back again and pushing it more WNW...
MY concern...folks from Biloxi to NOLA let their guards down as the hype is now the big bed, and this time tomorrow the hype is once again further west.
Any professionals see this happening? What is causing the high to back off now and what would cause it build back before the storm hits...
possible WNW turn later to surprise NOLA/Biloxi?
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LSU2001
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/7/05 11:01 AM
Just another quick update...
Threat continues for entire Gulf Coast...but very early indications show a weaker ridge of high pressure and a more easterly landfall...thus a greater threat from Louisiana eastward to Florida.
A NOAA Gulfstream IV jet went out sampling the environment around Dennis last night. This is very valuable data that allows us to have good information about the strength of the West Atlantic high pressure we would not otherwise have. Data from this mission was fed into the computer models and that may have resulted in a shift further to the east in the projected forecast tracks. This is certainly good news for New Orleans and I am very encouraged. However, be warned things can change here, so stay up-to-date on the latest tracks.
Even though there has been a shift to the east in the models, mainly suggesting landfall now on the FL panhandle, I suggest everyone continue to make plans just in case. Three day forecasts on these things can have HUGE errors and subtle features in the upper-level flow pattern which the computers are blind to now can result in chang
es in the track.
With that said, I will repeat what I stated in an earlier post:
Begin making your hurricane preparations now. This includes figuring out where you would evacuate to if this storm was to come our way, and how you are going to get there. If you live on high ground (north of the I-12) and you wish to stay, make sure you have plenty of supplies. It may be a good time to make hotel reservations too if you plan to go that route when leaving. Keep up on the latest information on the storm here in our forum and on Channel 4 so that you can make informed decisions about what you will do. If it looks like this thing is coming our way and you wait for the mandatory evacuation, it could be a headache getting out again...although hopefully not as bad as Ivan.
While the overall chances of a direct hit for any one point along the Gulf coast (including New Orleans) is low (and with the new data, perhaps lower for now), it is certainly better to go to some degree of trouble to be prepared than to rush around at the last minute.
Anyway, David and I will post our thoughts at the top of this board on Dennis in the coming days and will try to do this frequently.
But again, I urge everyone to start developing a detailed plan on what you will do should the worst happen. It just makes sense to do so. Let’s hope the current trends in the models continue to steer this thing east of us!
John
John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116
THe above post was taken from the WWL hurricane forum. David Bernard is met that is quite good and tends not to hype storms. Please understand that nothing on the Gulf Coast is SAFE at this time.
TIM
Just another quick update...
Threat continues for entire Gulf Coast...but very early indications show a weaker ridge of high pressure and a more easterly landfall...thus a greater threat from Louisiana eastward to Florida.
A NOAA Gulfstream IV jet went out sampling the environment around Dennis last night. This is very valuable data that allows us to have good information about the strength of the West Atlantic high pressure we would not otherwise have. Data from this mission was fed into the computer models and that may have resulted in a shift further to the east in the projected forecast tracks. This is certainly good news for New Orleans and I am very encouraged. However, be warned things can change here, so stay up-to-date on the latest tracks.
Even though there has been a shift to the east in the models, mainly suggesting landfall now on the FL panhandle, I suggest everyone continue to make plans just in case. Three day forecasts on these things can have HUGE errors and subtle features in the upper-level flow pattern which the computers are blind to now can result in chang
es in the track.
With that said, I will repeat what I stated in an earlier post:
Begin making your hurricane preparations now. This includes figuring out where you would evacuate to if this storm was to come our way, and how you are going to get there. If you live on high ground (north of the I-12) and you wish to stay, make sure you have plenty of supplies. It may be a good time to make hotel reservations too if you plan to go that route when leaving. Keep up on the latest information on the storm here in our forum and on Channel 4 so that you can make informed decisions about what you will do. If it looks like this thing is coming our way and you wait for the mandatory evacuation, it could be a headache getting out again...although hopefully not as bad as Ivan.
While the overall chances of a direct hit for any one point along the Gulf coast (including New Orleans) is low (and with the new data, perhaps lower for now), it is certainly better to go to some degree of trouble to be prepared than to rush around at the last minute.
Anyway, David and I will post our thoughts at the top of this board on Dennis in the coming days and will try to do this frequently.
But again, I urge everyone to start developing a detailed plan on what you will do should the worst happen. It just makes sense to do so. Let’s hope the current trends in the models continue to steer this thing east of us!
John
John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116
THe above post was taken from the WWL hurricane forum. David Bernard is met that is quite good and tends not to hype storms. Please understand that nothing on the Gulf Coast is SAFE at this time.
TIM
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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